US CURB ON AID TO PAKISTAN: A CRITICAL ANALYSIS
Colonel GG Pamidi
Introduction
In the wake of Osama bin Laden’s killing by the US Navy Seals in Abbottabad on 01 May 2011, serious questions were being asked by the lawmakers in the US over the legitimacy of Pakistan’s fight against terror. The pleading of ignorance by the Pakistani military-intelligence establishment did not find any takers in the international community. The US felt let down by their “strategic” partner to whom it has been doling out billions of dollars in foreign aid for several years.
The Secretary of State Hillary Clinton had warned that aid would be cut if Pakistan did not cooperate with the US in the war against terror and chose to play a duplicitous role. As tensions escalated between the two countries, demands across the US grew for Washington to cut off aid to Pakistan. Just last week, the Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen, sparked a strong response from Pakistan when he commented on the murder of Pakistani reporter Saleem Shahzad, who was beaten to death in May. He had said that Pakistan's government had ''sanctioned'' the killing of the journalist who had written scathing reports about the infiltration of Islamist militants into the country's security services. Pakistan's government had denounced his comments, calling them "extremely irresponsible and unfortunate."
This straining of relationship appears to have reached a breaking point and has now culminated in a formal declaration by the US that it is suspending some $800 million in military aid to Pakistan; a move some analysts say is being made to pressurise the Pakistani military to step up cooperation. US officials have been quoted as saying that the move is a response to Islamabad's decision to expel American military trainers and put limits on visas for US personnel, among other actions. Some analysts say the suspension is also aimed at pressuring Pakistan to do more to cooperate with the US to fight terrorists.
Initial Reactions
India has been quick to welcome this move as epitomized by the statement of the External Affairs Minister SM Krishna, who said that "With reference to the special circumstances between India and Pakistan and how India has consistently taken the view that it is not desirable that this region had to be heavily armed by the US which will upset the equilibrium in the region itself. To that extent India welcomes this step.” Mr AK Anthony, the Defence Minister has also echoed this sentiment and said, “How long this embargo (US suspension of military aid to Pakistan) will continue, I don't know, but still it is a positive step. It is a welcome step."
Need for Caution
However, there are several voices that caution restraint at this juncture. They opine that this move will not make Pakistan more cooperative. Also there are other concerns too. Some of these are:-
- Voices within Pakistan that are saying that they do not care for any aid at all from the US. It is this kind of shrill voices that could spell trouble in the short and medium term.
- The US aid cut will worsen Pakistan’s economic plight, in which growth has slowed to about 2.4 per cent this fiscal year while annual inflation, at more than 13.1 per cent in June, is Asia’s worst after Vietnam. Pakistan needs US support within the International Monetary Fund if it is to end the organisation’s year-long freeze on lending to the country, imposed last year over the government’s budget deficits.
- Pakistan can be expected to pull back troops from North Waziristan on the pretext that it will not be able to afford it after the US decision to withhold assistance. The US has long pressed the Pakistani military to crack down on the so-called Haqqani faction in the North Waziristan tribal region, which borders Afghanistan, but Islamabad has so far balked at doing so, and now, more than ever, is least likely to do so.
- Since, this in turn, will result in the extremist organisations having a free run within Pakistan, with a view to distracting domestic attention, Pakistan is more than likely to whip its anti-India sentiments and give a looser rein to the anti-India terrorist groups.
- There is a possibility that China may step in to help Pakistan at the time of its economic woes. This, in turn, will only further cement the relationships between them which is oft described as higher than the mountains and deeper than the oceans.
Conclusion
The relations between the US and Pakistan have steadily worsened in recent months and now the decline has accelerated after the killing of two Pakistanis by a CIA contractor in Lahore in January and the US raid to kill Osama bin Laden, which Pakistan complains it was not told about and says was a breach of its sovereignty.
Pakistan has demanded the number of US military personnel in Pakistan be slashed, and the US has complied. Pakistan also wants to cut the number of U.S. intelligence officials. The worry is that Pakistan could start leaning more heavily on its long term ally China as well as falter in its anti-terrorism fight. There are indications that this may well be part of a bigger strategy wherein the US is using its considerable leverage in Afghanistan to strike at the terrorist groups that have had longstanding ties to the Pakistani state, especially the Haqqani network, in an effort to demonstrate to Islamabad that these groups cannot advance its interests in the region.
At this juncture, when the entire strategy is yet to unfold fully, India must adopt a wait and watch policy. India must simultaneously pursue the path of diplomacy on which it has already embarked upon and encourage the secular and moderate factions in Pakistan and attempt to strengthen their hands in their war against radicalisation. It may be premature to term the withdrawal of some US aid to Pakistan as a permanent and irreversible step. The past is replete with incidents of sanctions imposed on Pakistan and thereafter its withdrawal after some time.
Colonel GG Pamidi is a Senior Research Fellow at the Centre for Strategic Studies and Simulation, USI. (Article uploaded on July 19, 2011).