Author : Dr. Roshan Khaniejo,

THE RELEVANCE OF CTBT

Dr Roshan Khaniejo*

The Comprehensive Nuclear Test- Ban Treaty (CTBT) has been in the news for all the good reasons .Its contribution to international security especially the International Monitoring System and the fact that Comprehensive Nuclear Test- Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) is running 254 monitoring Stations and 10 Labs detecting seismic activities not only due to nuclear explosions but also because of natural causes has been commended by most of the nations’. But the fact remains that the core issue still remains unfulfilled .After so many years the treaty is still where it was in 1996.It has still not come into force 35 out of 44 states mentioned in the annex 2 of this treaty have only ratified the treaty, until the remaining countries do so the purpose for which it was created could not be achieved.

History

Historically the concept of suspension of nuclear weapon testing   was first pronounced by Pt. Nehru in April 1954, since then number of initiatives has been taken by the world community. The Partial Test Ban Treaty of 1963 (PTBT) prohibiting nuclear explosion in  the atmosphere, outer space and under water, Threshold Test Ban Treaty (TTBT) of 1974 limiting the underground yield to 150tons and so on. The CTBT was opened for signature in 1996 since then it has seen 180 signatories and 150 ratifications.[1] However countries like the USA, Russia, China and France refused to sign on the pretext that they all have developed a policy of voluntary moratorium on nuclear testing. There were other countries especially India and Indonesia who showed their concern as far as the subcritical test programme was concerned. The foreign minister of Indonesia at a UN meeting in 1997 had said “Unless the nuclear power desisted from subcritical tests and computer simulations to design new weapons, there could be a resumption of the nuclear arms race and a revival risk of global disaster”.[2]

India and CTBT

After the Nuclear Test in May 1998 India was under tremendous pressure to sign the CTBT. The Indian Prime Minister had indicated India’s cooperation with CTBT provided all the relevant countries “will adhere to this treaty without conditions”.[3] The situation now as far as Indo-US relations are considered has changed drastically. Now India is an important economic and strategic partner of the US. India’s decision not to sign the treaty is based on larger global interest that is total disarmament and not pressure tactics. Recently President Obama had pledge to work towards the US ratification of CTBT. However it needs to be seen if it is genuine or an electoral poll gimmick because in the CTBT Conference held this month nothing was said as far as actual measures to promote early entry of nations was concerned .In Speeches and forums Non-Nuclear Weapon States (NNWS) are called upon to fulfil their obligation as far as Nuclear non Proliferation Treaty (NPT) is concerned. Article 1 and 2 of NPT prohibit the NWS to transfer as well as NNWS to receive  or manufacture any nuclear weapon .Also Article III makes it mandatory for NNWS to accept safeguards  in accordance with the Statute of the International Atomic Energy Agency. But when it comes to the five nuclear states, although Article VI of NPT states that each of the Parties to the Treaty undertakes to pursue negotiations relating to cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early date and to nuclear disarmament, only pledges are made with no substantial steps for implementation.

Nuclear Weapon States and CTBT

CTBT‘s future has always depended on the policies adopted by the Nuclear Weapon States (NWS) specially the US. Even in 1997 the countries were not confident about its success, because the US had conducted its first subcritical nuclear test. The erstwhile Soviets were soon to follow when they conducted their own test in 1998.The monitoring stations run by CTBTO picked up the 2006 test by China. The fact that the subcritical test could be used for studying the properties of Plutonium as well as it could be used for developing new generation nuclear weapons made the nuclear arms race more challenging for the NWS. Their refusal diluted the course of action and took the arms race to another level. Once the US mastered the new technology and the fact that the world politics changed after the breaking up of the Soviet Union ; the US stopped the sub critical tests  and little was heard about the programme of other countries also. However; now the course has come full circle and if media reports are to be believed, the US has resumed tests this time with new concept in “POLLUX” a first “scaled subcritical experiment “ with Plutonium-239. In lay man’s term Pollux will be the closest thing to a full scale nuclear test.[4] If the US has resumed the tests, can the Russians be far behind .If Russian media is to be believed; the reports coming from Nezavisimaya Gazeta, the Russian paper which printed article by Vladimir Mukhin  titled “Nuclear Umbrella for the Arctic”[5] nuclear test site at Novaya Zemlya for the resumption of the nuclear  tests is ready. So what happens to CTBT now? Aren’t we back to where we started? Do we really think that CTBT is comprehensive enough to stop the arms race? One needs to answer these questions before we can debate the effectiveness of this treaty. The fact that the superpowers can resume their tests whenever they want without paying any attention to the world opinion, reflects the ground realities of the old maxim “might is right”. The double standards weaken the world system .It is said that truth is simple, but following it in totem is the complex part. Similarly here the solution can be as simple as pressurising the nuclear powers to abandon their sub –critical tests for a greater cause of peace and harmony, but the complexities begin when the interest of few nations become paramount and in the bargain the human race is sacrificed.

Conclusion

It is said an astute diplomat can achieve what a war cannot, the skill lies in negotiations. What world requires - is nations who have the power to create world opinions and negotiate through media where interests of the world prevail. The starting point is the CTBT, a treaty which encompasses the larger good of nations. Its article 1 makes all the nations equally responsible for not carrying out any nuclear weapon test. If achieved it can ensure what Nuclear non Proliferation Treaty (NPT) could not achieve that is nuclear disarmament. Its scope is wide enough to recognise “general and complete disarmament under strict and effective international control “.[6] Its monitoring agencies can be the watchdog as well as the supplier of raw and processed data for all states. The CTBTO has demonstrated “credible capacities to locate nuclear accidents, to detect radiations and issue early warnings. Its capability to issue Tsunami warning is another gain from the treaty”[7]With so much to gain it needs to be seen who takes the first step to systematically and progressively reduce the nuclear weapons thus setting a precedent for all the nations to follow.

 Endnotes