The Maldives Cauldron
Lt Gen PC Katoch, PVSM, UYSM, AVSM, SC (Retd) *
Chairing an international leadership conference in 2009 on invitation of the Maldives National Defence Forces (MNDF), their concerns about radicalization were palpable on the sidelines. This was not only because of the Somali piracy plaguing Maldives and surrounding waters but more importantly, the fact that Maldivian youth had started frequently Pakistan for arms training since around 2005, drugs had started flowing in, strains of radicalization had started making appearance on the streets and there was no guessing how many arms were coming in illegally through porous borders from the waters surrounding the nation. Threats faced by Maldives include, sea erosion, tsunami, organized crime (gang violence, theft, looting), smuggling and contrabands, large scale drug abuse and fast rising extremism.
Maldives is a nation with 99.74% water by territory and 99.97% water when including EEZ. There are six airports (two international) and three international sea ports. Maldives has over 1192 islands of which 100 are Tourist Resorts / Hotels (80 being added at a cost of $75 billion) with 26,00 beds and average occupancy of 80 percent (8,00,000 tourist average annually) is an industry worth $70-$100 billion, accounting for 28 percent of GDP and more than 60 percent of foreign exchange receipts. Over 90 percent of government tax revenue comes from import duties and tourism-related taxes. With a GDP of $2.754 billion (official exchange rate) and per capita income of $8,400, 16 percent population below poverty line and 14.5 percent unemployment rate, Maldives has had chronic budget deficits in recent years. External debt stood at $943 million in 2010. New Goods and Services Tax on Tourism and a new Business Profit Tax were introduced in last two years, to increase government revenue by about 25 percent. Tourism will remain the engine of the economy because of which GDP rose 8 percent in 2010 and 6.5 percent in 2011.
Somali pirates have been apprehended periodically by Maldives Coast Guards since 2007 or so. At any one time some Somali pirates (including suspected ones) remain in Maldives police custody along with their boats / skiffs. In April 2006, more than 1.6 tons of narcotics with street value of more than $260 million were discovered packed and hidden in a lagoon. Then in May 2007, a vessel intercepted was found carrying arms and cargo intended for the LTTE. In September 2007, an unexploded IED was recovered from Sultan Park in Maldives. A month later there was a scuffle between security forces and Islamic radicals at Himandhoo. In 2009, there were 37 Somali Pirates in custody of Maldives.
It would be naïve to think that the rise of radicalism in Maldives is only a threat to high end tourism in that country which depends on peace and stability. In the first instance, Maldives susceptibility to rapid increase in radicalism needs to be grasped. The main vulnerability lies in the population mix. In 2012, Maldives population was 3,28,542 and as per the Maldivian Constitution, no non-Muslim can become the President of the country, which is all fine but the vulnerability lies in the country having some 77,000 foreign employees and 33,000 illegal immigrants, both of which are 2010 estimates and would go up exponentially with tourism booming and new tourism resorts coming up. The country has an ideal setting for infiltration by investment by terrorist organizations, which in effect has already happened and is possibly multiplying. Potential terrorist havens are facilitated in over 1000 uninhabited islands that have ample cover to undertake activities without fear of surveillance if adequate measures are taken to avoid observation from the air, physical patrolling being out of the question. Then there are some 1200 fishing vessels that would be available for hiring or commandeering, money not being a problem with drugs in plenty.
President Waheed’s silent coup was undertaken with the help of Islamic radicals, not that former President does not seek support from all population including radicals. Former Foreign Minister Ahmed Naseem was vocal in saying, “What we had was a military coup backed by religious extremists. There is a strong influence of Islamic fundamentalists in the country and they will get stronger…. These groups are funded from abroad. This threat is not only to us, but the rest of the world as well.” Ironically, India was taken by complete surprise with no inkling whatsoever of events leading up to deposing Nasheed. Of concern should be the anti-India wave that is being fanned by Islamist radicals. In February 2012, all the priceless Buddhist artifacts (most 12th Century vintage numbering some 35) of the pre-Islamic era in the Maldives’ National Museum at Male were smashed by Islamic extremists. Five persons were arrested next day when they returned to smash the CCTV cameras. Origins of the Maldivian people are not clearly established, but it is believed that a Buddhist king converted to Islam in the 12th century. Today, women can be flogged for extramarital sex and consuming alcohol is illegal for locals. In 2007, following a bombing that wounded a dozen foreign tourists, the former President Gayoom banned head-to-toe coverings for women as a sign of his intent to battle conservative Islamic thinking. More than 80 percent of India’s sea trade (both incoming and outgoing) passes crosses / passes in proximity of Maldives. Terrorist havens in Maldives can have a serious impact on this.
The increasing influence of China in the region too is raking in fresh dynamics that need to be taken into account. Chinese influence was certainly was a factor for cancellation of the GMR deal in respect of the Male airport, in addition to the anti-India radicals. Year 2010 saw a record 1,20,000 Chinese tourists visiting Maldives (96 percent increase from previous year) and Chinese telecom companies are already firmly established in Maldives. China opened its embassy at Male in 2011. In December 2012, Mohamed Nazim, the Maldives' Minister of Defense and National Security Maldivian visiting Beijing told his Chinese counterpart Liang Guanglie that Maldives “is willing to cement relations between the two countries and their militaries”. China wants to develop Ihavandhoo and Maarandhoo Islands of Haa Alif Atoll in Maldives as transshipment and refueling ports, again akin to what China has achieved in Seychelles. More significantly, China wants to develop Marao, the largest Maldives island, as a Chinese submarine base. China had tried this with Gayoom administration too but it did not come through. President Waheed recently stated China will be giving $550 million assistance to Maldives for development and construction. Should Waheed return to power with support of radical Islamists, such an agreement may become a reality, as part of a China-Maldives Defence Pact. China's efforts to make further inroads into Maldives had gained momentum after the visit of Wu Bangguo, Chairman of the Standing Committee of the Chinese National People's Congress, to Male in May 2012.
The loose pieces of terrorist activities in this part of the IOR must be holistically viewed if the jigsaw puzzle is to be put in place, some of the pieces being:
- Both the Al Qaeda and LeT have been linked to the LTTE.
- Al Qaeda cadres trained under the naval arm of the LTTE and one of their acts was to hit USS Cole.
- Somali pirates are the strike arms of Al Shabab headquartered in Somalia, which is closely linked to Al Qaeda.
- Over the years Somali Piracy operations have expanded from 105 nautical miles off the coast of Somalia in 2005 to the 1300 nautical miles leaning onto Indian shores, with Maldives having declared Somali Piracy a national threat.
- In 2004, Maldivian, Ibrahim Fauzee staying at an Al Qaeda hideout was arrested in Pakistan by US forces.
- In May 2007, a vessel intercepted by MNDF was found carrying arms and cargo for LTTE
- The 27 May 2009, suicide attack on the ISI headquarters in Lahore was done by Ali Jaleel, a Maldivian terrorist operating under Al Qaeda.
- In 2009, President Nasheed admitted that thousands of Maldivian youth were being recruited to study at madrassas and join jihadi operations in Pakistan, which presented a fundamental threat to the security of Maldives. Ali also featured in an Al Qaeda propaganda video prior to the suicide attack.
- In 2010, nine Maldivian terrorists were arrested in Pakistan's South Waziristan agency undertaking training with Al Qaeda and Taliban.
- In December 2011, Lieutenant Hassan Amir of MNDF submitted his thesis titled “Islamism and Radicalism in Maldives” in which he talks of a Maldivian link to the 26/11 Mumbai terror attacks.
- The ISI-LeT has become firmly linked with the Maoists in India, former also having organized mines/IED/ explosives training of nucleus Maoists cadres by the LTTE some six-seven years back.
- Al Qaeda and LeT have established links in Kerala and have armed the popular Front of India (PFI) against the Indian State, in addition to having spawned the Indian Mujahideen (IM) pan India.
- Four PFI cadres ex Kerala (recruited by LeT) were killed in Kupwara in 2008 while exfiltrating to POK. As per R&AW, extremists from Kerala terror groups had been going to Pakistan since 1992.
Over the years, Maldives has been successfully infiltrated by local and foreign radical elements. The 2004, Tsunami facilitated Al Qaeda and LeT to establish their grip on the island nation. The sole Islamic political party (Adaalath Party) is without much electoral support and has been overshadowed by Islamic organizations like Jamiyathul-Salaf (JS) and Islamic Foundation of Maldives (IFM), both forging ahead in establishing groups pan Maldives that indulge in religious policing and issue warnings against what they consider un-Islamic behavior and morality, besides radical religious propaganda through social media. With elections to be held within 2013 and Waheed, Nasheed and Gayoom likely contenders, who Maldivians chose is their prerogative but it would be in the interest of the global community, particularly India, to see that the elections are held in fair manner. India must also take into account the increasing radicalization of Maldives with Pakistan’s machinations, linkages between Al Qaeda-LeT operatives in India and Maldives and the specific threat to Southern India, into India’s internal security paradigm. China has been tacitly supporting Pakistan’s anti-India jihad, one reason being Pakistan’s promise to suppress Uighur separatist including some 320 East Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM) cadres from China hiding in Pakistan. China has maintained its links with Al Qaeda and Taliban for the same reason. Maldives may be, therefore, used as terrorist base against India, without threat to Maldives but holding it hostage by the same logic, forcing it to look the other way. Indian policy thinkers must take into account all these strategic moves of China and Pakistan.
*Prakash Katoch is a former Lieutenant General and a Council Member of USI.
(Article uploaded on Mar. 15, 2013).
Disclaimer: The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of the organisation that he belongs to or of the USI.