Same Snake, Different Backyard: Suspicion of Pakistan’s Hand in Fomenting Violence in Xinjiang
By Colonel GG Pamidi
Background
The Pakistan-China relationship is not a new one that has just been forged. The bilateral relations have evolved from an initial Chinese policy of neutrality to a strategic partnership that links a smaller but militarily powerful Pakistan, partially dependent on China for its economic and military strength, attempting to balance both India and Pakistan. The diplomatic relations began in 1950 when Pakistan was among the first countries to break relations with the Republic of China (Taiwan) and recognize the Peoples Republic of China. Military assistance began in 1966, a strategic alliance was formed in 1972 and economic co-operation began in 1979. Since then China has become Pakistan’s largest supplier of arms. Pakistan’s ambassador to Beijing, Masood Kahn, recently described the robust friendship between the two countries saying that “…. it is higher than the mountains, deeper than the oceans, stronger than steel, dearer than eyesight, sweeter than honey…”
The US Factor
Post the raid on Osama’s hide-out in Abbottabad; the relations between Pakistan and the US have hit an all-time low. If this was not bad enough things got even worse when the United States Embassy and the nearby NATO headquarters in Kabul were attacked on 12 September 2011, demonstrating the Taliban’s ability to infiltrate even the most heavily fortified districts of the capital. For a long time it was known that the ISI had close links with the Haqqani network but it had never been acknowledged. However; this attack changed all that. The US publicly alleged that the attack was carried out by the ISI backed Haqqani network, a charge which has been refuted by Pakistan. These events have sent the US-Pakistan relations spiralling downward once again amid US criticism of Pakistan for failing to crack down on the Haqqani network. The then Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mike Mullen said in a speech to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, "The ISI has been doing this – working for – supporting proxies for an extended period of time. It is a strategy in the country and I think that strategic approach has to shift in the future."
Pakistan’s Shift to China
Today, the anti-US feeling is widespread in Pakistan. Increasingly, it appears that Pakistan is tilting towards China. It is reasonable to assume that Pakistan seems to consider China a more reliable ally than the United States. It cites years of diplomatic manipulation and neglect on the part of Washington. Pakistan and China grew closer in the 1960s as Washington and Islamabad began to part ways over the handling of regional issues. In particular, Pakistan felt betrayed when Washington cut off aid to Islamabad during its 1965 and 1971 wars with India. Pakistan played a pivotal role as an intermediary during the U.S.-China rapprochement in the early 1970s. Pakistan perceives US indifference after using it to funnel aid to the Afghan mujahedeen to fight the Soviets in Afghanistan.
In contrast, China and Pakistan have enjoyed a close and mutually beneficial relationship. China has long provided Pakistan with major military, technical, and economic assistance, including the transfer of sensitive nuclear technology and equipment. Some experts predict that the closer relations between the United States and rival India will ultimately prompt Pakistan to push for even closer ties with its longtime strategic security partner, China. With the announced draw down of the ISAF from Afghanistan by 2014 and deepening distrust between the US and Pakistan, there are signs of a deepening China-Pakistan relationship.
Xinjiang and Islam: Religion as a Factor
Xinjiang, located beyond the natural boundary of China, the Great Wall, is an integral part of the history of Central Asia. For centuries it was called East Turkestan. The Uighurs, who are ethnically Turkic, have lived in the region for more than four millennia. Located along the famous Silk Road, Uighurs played an important role in cultural and mercantile exchanges between the East and West. Islam came to the region in 934 AD, and soon thereafter Kashgar became one of the major Islamic centres of Islam. As the centuries rolled by, Xinjiang fell under the control of the Manchu emperors of China. During the 1860s, Muslim uprisings erupted across western China. In 1865, a Kokandi officer named Yakub Beg seized Kashgar and proclaimed an independent Turkestan. He also made diplomatic contacts with Britain and Russia. A few years later, the Manchus returned, Beg committed suicide, and in 1884 Kashgar was absorbed into a new province called Xinjiang meaning "New Territory".
Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region is China’s largest province, accounting for 16 per cent of the landmass. Even though it is home to only 1.6 per cent of the population Xinjiang has tremendous strategic significance for China. Nuclear tests have been conducted at the Lop Nor range. It borders eight nations, and contains a large portion of the nation’s mineral resources including 38 per cent of the coal reserves and 25 per cent of the petroleum and natural gas reserves. Beijing has handled separatism in the region with an iron hand. It has arrested a large number of “separatists”. Trials are swiftly concluded within days, often resulting in the death sentence being meted out on the same day that it is handed down. Xinjiang is home to several ethnic groups of various religions, with majority of the population adhering to Islam. There is a strong sentiment amongst non-Hans in the region that their ancient culture, some of which dates back to the 7th century BC, is being eroded and replaced by Han culture. In such a volatile arena, religious extremism too appears to have crept in.
The Chinese Unease: East Turkestan Independence Movement?
China has termed the numerous incidents of unrest and violence in Xinjiang as acts of terrorism and held responsible members of the banned terrorist outfit East Turkestan Independence Movement (ETIM) for perpetrating the violence. A Xinhua news report on the latest incident stated that members of ETIM based in Pakistan were involved. The unusually specific accusation probably hints at growing Chinese impatience with Pakistan’s inability to control radical groups operating from within its borders.
While the United States and other powers have openly criticized Pakistan’s failure to rein in insurgents operating from its tribal regions, China has largely confined its public statements to support Islamabad’s security policies. But the Chinese, who view Uighur separatist sentiment as a dire threat, have become increasingly concerned about Pakistan as a safe haven for radicals.
Conclusion
The ISI chief, the Foreign Minister as well as the President of Pakistan have visited China in recent months and reassured it of their unwavering support. While the public response of China has been along predictable lines, it appears that gradually China is veering around to the view that Pakistan and more specifically its intelligence agency, the ISI needs to be monitored closely, if it has to keep the lid on the Xinjiang cauldron from boiling over.
Colonel GG Pamidi is a Senior Research Fellow at the Centre for Strategic Studies and Simulation, USI. (Article uploaded on October 28, 2011).