Author : Colonel GG Pamidi,

Pakistan’s Pursuit of Nuclear Parity: A Recipe for Disaster

By Colonel GG Pamidi*

Introduction 

American intelligence assessments have concluded that Pakistan has steadily expanded its nuclear arsenal since President Obama came to office, and that it is building the capability to surge ahead of India in the production of nuclear-weapons material[1]. For the Obama administration, the assessment poses a direct challenge to a central element of the president's national security strategy, the reduction of nuclear stockpiles around the world. As President Obama had declared at the Nuclear Security Summit in Washington last year, one of the primary concerns of the world community is to secure all nuclear fissile material. Pakistan's determination to add considerably to its arsenal — mostly to deter India — has also become yet another irritant in its often testy relationship with Washington, particularly as Pakistan seeks to clandestinely keep adding to its nuclear stockpile. While the United States keeps its estimates of foreign nuclear weapons stockpiles secret, and Pakistan goes to great lengths to hide both the number and location of its weapons[2], it is particularly wary of the United States, which Pakistan's military fears has plans to seize the arsenal.   

Pakistan's Viewpoint 

There apparently seemed to be no reason that could be ascribed to this burning desire of Pakistan to increase the quantity of fissile material that it has. It is in this backdrop that the remarks of the Pakistani Ambassador Zamir Akram need to be analysed. Akhram is Pakistan's permanent representative to the UN Office at Geneva, and serves as Islamabad's ambassador to the Conference on Disarmament (CD). In an interview to the Arms Control Association (ACA) on 18 October 2011, he is said to have said, " ……… we need to enhance our own capabilities so that we have sufficient fissile material for what we would then feel is a credible second-strike capability, or credible deterrence capability. So that's one reason………. of ensuring that there is no gap between us and India. That's the first thing."[3]

This appears to be thinking that is spurring Pakistan's zeal to acquire ever more stock of nuclear fissile material. The logic has been explained by the Ambassador in his detailed interview, the sum total being that Pakistan views the NSG waiver as discriminatory. It feels that as a consequence of the NSG waiver and the signing of several nuclear cooperation agreements, with the United States, Russia, France, Britain, Canada, and several other countries, India will be receiving an unknown but obviously high quantity of fissile material. Pakistan does not appear to accept the premise that it is for the civilian nuclear programme. As he puts it, "This would mean that its existing stocks of fissile material, its indigenous stocks, can be quite easily converted to weapons use because it will have the imported material to use in the civilian facilities……. So it will give India a free hand to enhance its weapons capabilities.[4]" 

It can thus be summarized that Pakistan is planning its nuclear stockpile based on two factors:-

• The potential of India for increasing its stocks. This, they seem to calculate will go up as a result of the NSG agreements.
• Possibility of diversion from civilian to military.

So taking these into account, Pakistan is building its own capacity to a point where they feel comfortable with their deterrent[5].

Consequences of Pakistan's Race to Acquire Fissile Material 

It is particularly interesting to note that hardly anybody seems to be concerned that this may lead to a nuclear arms race in the region. The world community seems to have finally accepted that India is far too mature to react to such a meaningless exercise. Strategically, possession of an assured second strike capability assures India with a credible nuclear deterrence. Towards this end, as has already been made clear, India is pursing all steps that it needs to take to ensure its security. 

The global comities of nations appear to far more concerned about the security of the fissile material within Pakistan. As recent events have conclusively shown, within Pakistan, things appear to be turbulent. The radicalization of civil society apart, even the so-called "secular" and "moderate" military appears to have succumbed to the radicalization menace. The arrest of Brigadier Ali Khan of the Pakistan Army for his alleged ties to Hizb-ut-Tahrir (HuT), a banned Islamic militant group, believed to be working in tandem with al-Qaeda under the garb of pan-Islamism, speaks volumes about the growing radicalization of Pakistani armed forces[6]. His arrest for his militant connection has surprised even his colleagues since he comes from a family with three generations of military service, and had a brilliant service record. While his father was a junior commissioned officer, his younger brother is a colonel in an intelligence agency. His son and son-in-law are both army captains[7]. The infiltration of the Karachi naval base on 22 May by al-Qaeda and Taliban-linked fidayeens only gives credence to some earlier reports that the audacious assault could not have been possible without "inside help"[8].  

All this appears to have worried the western world. All this has not escaped the attention of Pakistan's top brass. It appears that Pakistan views a threat against its prized nuclear assets as very real. There are unconfirmed reports that it has begun moving its nuclear weapons in low-security vans on congested roads to hide them from US spy agencies.  This, if true, makes the weapons more vulnerable to theft by Islamist militants and poses a grave danger to the entire world. It is no secret that the Al Qaeda has nurtured ambitions of possessing a nuclear weapon for years and is biding time till it can strike at some vulnerable western target in a spectacular manner. 

Prospects 

Unfortunately, the prospects of the situation improving do not appear to be very optimistic. On its part, India has persistently attempted to allay the almost paranoiac fears of Pakistan. To be fair, since it is not correct to club all the diverse voices within Pakistan together, it would be more apt to say that the strategic restraint displayed by India appears to have been lost on the Pakistani "establishment", especially its ISI and the military.

Pakistan has the fastest growing nuclear arsenal in the world and it is no secret that Pakistan treasures its nuclear weapons. It claims that fears over its nuclear weapons are misplaced and unfounded saying that it has a very robust, multi-layered command and control system. It has 10,000 soldiers guarding its facilities and its Strategic Plans Division (SPD) has its own independent intelligence section[9]. Pakistan is also believed to have developed its own Permissive Action Link (PAL) system to electronically lock its nuclear devices[10].  However; all these safeguards pale into insignificance when viewed against the reality of Islamist penetration into the very heart of its security establishment.

If better sense does not prevail, the eventuality of terrorists laying their hands on stolen fissile material is only a matter of time. It can only be hoped that Pakistan will realize the folly of its ways and take drastic measures to arrest the imminence of a terrorist "Armageddon". The world community needs to take notice of this grave threat and forums such as the next Nuclear Security Summit at Seoul, South Korea scheduled during March 2012 must be used to drive home this point forcefully to the recalcitrant establishment in Pakistan. The powers that be in Pakistan must realize that the mindless pursuit of amassing fissile material is fraught with grave consequences. Most significantly, such pursuit is meaningless when viewed through the prism of rationality and sobriety. 

Endnotes

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