Author : Colonel GG Pamidi,

PAKISTAN’S INCREASING GLOBAL ISOLATION: AN ANALYSIS

Colonel GG Pamidi*

 "National isolation breeds national neurosis”. -Hubert H Humphrey.

Introduction   

The recent report of the survey that was conducted in Pakistan regarding global attitudes has revealed some remarkable findings[1]. It has emerged that it is not just India or the United States that harbours a negative perception about Pakistan. It is as if almost the whole world is becoming wary of Pakistan. This is not to say that Pakistan has not realised this. On 31 May this year, President Asif Ali Zardari had said that “disengagement with the world was not a democratic option”. However, in the next breath, he also asked “the international community to also take Pakistan’s domestic compulsions and national interest into account when taking stock of the country’s role in efforts against extremism and terrorism”.[2] In order to take an unbiased and nuanced view of this, it is essential to understand Pakistan’s role in the efforts against terrorism. This is the point when a reality check of the Pakistani attitude towards extremism and the countries arrayed against the terrorists becomes a valuable tool to gauge the direction of extremism and most importantly, the direction that the war against terrorism seems to be making.

Figures That Reveal New Trends

What makes the survey especially interesting is that it reveals certain figures that fly in the face of accepted conventional wisdom, not only in the US and India but many parts of the world. There is an important caveat though; this analysis is based on the Pew Research Center’s Global Attitudes Project, which may or may not be truly representative of the ground situation across the length and breadth of Pakistan, though the researchers claim with ‘95 per cent confidence that the error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus the margin of error’^[3]. The margin of error in the case of Pakistan is only plus or minus 4.2 percentage points[4]. Hence, the findings definitely merit a closer scrutiny.

Modality of the Pew Research

The modality of the research in Pakistan was that face-to-face interviews were conducted with 1,206 respondents between 28 March and 13 April 2012. While the sample taken appears to be relatively small and disproportionately urban, the researchers claim that it has been weighted to reflect the actual urban/rural distribution in Pakistan. When it comes to findings of attitude of other countries, the sample size varies from 800 to 4018.

Key Findings from the Survey:-

US-Pakistan Relations

-  Almost three fourths of the population(74 per cent) appear to view the US as an enemy.

-  Though the US has provided billions of dollars in aid to Pakistan over the last decade in an effort to increase bilateral cooperation and improve its image, these policies do not appear to be seen in a positive light by Pakistanis. Many seem to view the aid as having a negative effect on the country. Around four-in-ten (38 per cent) have said that the US economic aid is having a mostly negative impact on Pakistan, while just 12 per cent believe it is mostly positive.

-  Those who live in the Punjab province seem to especially likely to think of the US as an enemy (85 per cent).

-  Overall, the goal of improving US-Pakistani relations seems to be becoming less important to Pakistanis. More than half (58 per cent) appear to view the bilateral relationship as not improving and only 13 per cent have opined that it has improved in recent years.

-   About 90 per cent Pakistanis appear to consider China a partner, while just two per cent have said that it is more of an enemy.

Views towards Extremism and Various Tanzeems

-   Though the majority (58 per cent) of Pakistanis have said they are wary or somewhat concerned about Islamic extremism in their country, this is a dramatic downward shift from 2009, when nearly eight-in-ten Pakistanis (79 per cent) had expressed worries about Islamic extremism.

-   Only about one in-three now support using the military to fight extremists.

-   Though both the Taliban (66 per cent) and Al Qaeda (55 per cent) are viewed unfavourably, the Taliban appears to be viewed as more of a threat. The groups associated with the Taliban are also not viewed favourably, namely, the Tehreek-e-Taliban (52 per cent) and the Afghan Taliban (45 per cent) being viewed unfaourably.

-   Surprisingly though, a solid majority (64 percent) have offered no opinion about the Haqqani network, a group associated with the Taliban that is active on both sides of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, but is largely believed to be based in the FATA region of Pakistan with only one in every three (31 per cent) viewing it unfavourably.

-   However, this is not true of the Lashkar-e-Taiba(LeT), which roughly one-in-five Pakistanis (22 per cent) appear to have a favourable view of,  and 41 per cent have offered no opinion. Again only every third person (37 per cent) view it unfaourably.

-   Again surprisingly, Pakistanis who pray five times a day seem to offer negative views of extremist groups more vehemently than those who pray less often.

Region Wise Breakdown of the Survey

-   Residents of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa appear to be more concerned than those living elsewhere in Pakistan about the risk posed by Al Qaeda and the Taliban. More than nine-in ten (94 per cent) in this province on the frontier with Afghanistan see the Taliban as a serious threat, while three-quarters say the same about Al Qaeda.

 -   In Sindh province more than six-in-ten (64 per cent) share the view that the Taliban are a serious threat.

 -    In Punjab less than half (49 per cent) appear to view the Taliban as a threat and only 38 per cent view the Al Qaeda as a threat.

 Global Attitude towards Pakistan

-   The global attitude towards Pakistan has been gauged based on surveys conducted in eight countries.

-   There was near unanimity in all the eight countries which were surveyed. The eight countries surveyed were Jordan, Egypt, Turkey, Lebanon, China, Japan, Tunisia and India. Apart from India, only China and Japan are the non Muslim nations.

-    Almost every second person in each of these disparate countries appears to view Pakistan unfavourably, with Jordan (57 per cent), Lebanon (56 per cent), Egypt (53 per cent), Tunisia (54 per cent), and Turkey (43 per cent) all being Muslim countries. The others, namely, China (52 per cent) particularly may appear as a bit of a surprise to the Pakistanis themselves, while both Japan and India at 59 per cent viewing Pakistan as unfavourable may not seem as much of a surprise.

Analysis from an Indian Perspective

-   The Pakistani perception about the US is unlikely to surprise anybody in India. US aid notwithstanding, any country which attempts to get close to what Pakistan perceives as it’s enemy will always get an unfavourable response. As borne out in the survey, more than half the Pakistanis still view India as a far more potent threat (53 per cent) than either the Taliban (23 per cent) or the Al Qaeda ( a scant 3 per cent). The war against the Al Qaeda or the Taliban does not appear to bother the average Pakistani. This is definitely a cause for concern and the near paranoidal fears about India need to be gradually mitigated. However; optimism about any peace overtures yielding any quick dividends appears misplaced. Attitudes take a relatively long time to change and decades of mistrust cannot be forgotten or changed in a hurry.

-   The common Pakistani still appears to desire improved relations with India (62 per cent) and nearly the same (64 per cent) number desire increased trade. Almost every seventh Pakistani (67 per cent) also supports further talks between India and Pakistan. More significantly, roughly eight-in-ten Pakistanis (79 per cent) also appear to think that it is very important for the two countries to resolve their differences.

-   The fact that almost every second Chinese (52 per cent) appears to view Pakistan unfavourably is again surprising. China befriends Pakistan on its terms and on issues which China perceives as beneficial to it. The sooner Pakistan realizes this, the better it will be. However, this seems unlikely; since paradoxically, more than nine persons out of ten (94 per cent) Pakistanis view China favourably with 72 per cent viewing China very favourably and 22 per cent viewing it somewhat favourably. These gross differences in attitudes speak volumes about the trust that Pakistan appears to have in its so-called all weather friend.

-   The fact that almost every nation surveyed appears to view Pakistan unfavourably  reflects the growing cynicism of the international comity of nations with Pakistan’s intentions. From 2008 till date, the degree of cynicism towards Pakistan only seems to be increasing. While in 2008, all the three countries, namely, Egypt, Jordan and  Lebanon viewed viewed Pakistan unfavourably with an uniform figure of 45 per cent, the figures in 2012 rose with Egypt (53 per cent), Jordan (57 per cent), Lebanon ( 56 per cent) viewing it unfavourably. Even  Tunisia which was surveyed only in 2012 viewing it a high of 54 per cent.

-   While it is certainly reassuring that every second Pakistani (52 per cent), appears to be concerned about the possible takeover of their country by extremist groups, the fact is that this figure is down from the dramatic 2009 figures when nearly eight-in-ten Pakistanis (79 per cent) expressed worries about Islamic extremism. This indicates that extremism and radicalisation appear to be gradually gaining ground. The fact that more people appear to view India as a threat (59 per cent) and view the US(74 per cent) as an enemy than the extremists seems to indicate the degree of success which  the Pakistani establishment has made in gradually misleading the populace. 

-   Regionally, it is evident that radicalisation and extremism appears to enjoy a degree of tolerance, if not support, only in the province of Punjab. The other regions, namely, Khyber Pakhtoonwa, FATA, Baluchistan and Sindh appear to be relatively less influenced.

-   Globally, the realisation that Pakistan is playing a double role by overplaying its frontline status seems to be growing gradually, with its one time allies also turning against it.

Conclusion

Pakistan appears to be gradually withdrawing into itself.  Any nation that refuses to acknowledge the fact that the threat lies within, risks the danger of making it happen. However, there are sane voices even today in Pakistan who are attempting to drive sense into the policy makers. Pervez Hoodbhoy, a nuclear physicist and prominent commentator on current issues, recently showed examples as to how education was being used to fuel terrorism[5]. Any country which attempts to brainwash school children with an idea as extremist as including images and text in a school book  that mentions the Urdu equivalent of B as ‘bandook’, Te as ‘takrao’, J as ‘jihad’, H as ‘hijab’, Kh as ‘khanjar’ and Ze as ‘zunoob’ is well on its way to radicalisation. The events of the past decade have shown that even well meaning efforts at peace get distorted and misrepresented. It must be reiterated that in spite of the horrific memories of 26/11 still being fresh in Indian memory, the percentage which viewed Pakistan unfavourably in India( 59 per cent) is almost the same as Lebanon( 57 per cent) and Jordan (56 per cent). More importantly it is not that far from the figure of 52 per cent that view it unfavourably in China. It is only to be hoped that Pakistan does some serious introspection, realises the futility of its ways and recognises that extremism which is gnawing at the very soul of that nation is it’s real enemy and not perceived enemies such as the US or India.  The ray of optimism is that nearly almost every Pakistani, namely, close to nine out of ten (87 per cent) appear to be dissatisfied with the way the country is going currently. The remedy cannot be administered from outside, it has to come from within.

Endnotes