Author : Col GG Pamidi,

OSAMA BIN LADEN’S DEATH: A GAME CHANGER?

Col GG Pamidi*

The killing of Osama bin Laden by the US Navy Seals in a daring operation on 01 May 2011 has been termed to be a historic moment in the war against terror. “Justice has been done”, declared the US President, Barack Obama from the White House, in a globally televised address. For the first few days there was no official reaction from Pakistani and it was only on 09 May 2011 that the Prime Minister of Pakistan, Yousaf Raza Gilani addressed the nation and gave his version of the events.

Now that a substantial amount of time has passed, certain facts have emerged.

(a) The world’s most wanted terrorist was living in the cantonment town of Abbottabad, barely 900 meters from the Pakistan Military Academy and about an hours drive from Islamabad.

(b) The operation was covert and it is fairly certain that the Pakistani establishment was not informed about this operation by the US. 

However; many questions still remain:

(a Pakistan has still not explained as to how Osama was in a cantonment town and was still not sighted[1]. The Pak PM’s explanation that it was not a failure of the ISI alone, but, that of the entire world’s intelligence is unlikely to find any takers.

(b) Was Osama enjoying the support of a few top officers of the Pak Army and the ISI?

(c) Is it possible that the Pak Army had made a secret deal with Osama that they would shelter him and he, in return, would guarantee the Quetta Shura’s or the Taliban’s  support in Afghanistan?

There is thus a need to dispassionately analyse these events. The three key issues are:

(a) Is the killing of Osama a game changer?

(b) Will it change the Indo-Pak equation?

(c) Will it substantially alter the US-Pak relationship?

Death of Osama.  The death of Osama is unlikely to have any impact on the Al Qaeda network except for a “psychological impact”. However; the organization has such a strong ideological mooring that his death is not being mourned but viewed as a sacrifice for the greater glory of “jihad” and he is revered as a martyr. There are chances of a revenge strike in the US, Europe and in India.

Indo-Pak Equation. India has been demanding that action be taken against the 26/11 accused that are staying in Pakistan. After the death of Osama deep inside Pakistan, India’s Home Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram commented that “We believe that the perpetrators of the Mumbai terror attack, including the controllers and handlers of the terrorists who actually carried out the attack, continue to be sheltered in Pakistan.”  Despite the shrill comments on the electronic media the Indian Government has stated that the killing of Osama will not change the discourse on Indo-Pak dialogue. But it has made it clear that use of terrorism as a policy to further strategic goals is “unacceptable”. Especially difficult to overcome is the persistent distrust felt by India’s political establishment that Pakistan’s military cannot be trusted in any negotiations.[2]

US-Pak Relations. The US has raised several uncomfortable questions and demanded answers to these from a visibly embarrassed Pakistan.  The Pak PM has sought to respond by deflecting the blame on to the CIA. In his address, Gillani stated that the Al Qaeda was created by the CIA and that they too needed to share the blame. This is unlikely to go well with the US. The issue is not the historical foundation or indeed the widely accepted fact that the CIA did indeed fund the Mujahedeen during the Russian occupation of Afghanistan. The current issue is what tangible steps has Pak taken post 9/11? Already, many in the US are encouraging a re-evaluation of the strategic relationship between Pakistan and the US. However, Pakistan has a role and the US cannot afford to cut off aid completely to it. This could have the reverse effect of encouraging Pakistan to look the other way and allow a greater flow of Taliban and other militants to flood the AF-Pak border to fight the NATO and US troops in Afghanistan.[3]

Conclusion

Abbottabad raid has many questions that need to be answered, but these are hard to come by. The killing of Osama is definitely a milestone in the war against terror, however it can, at best, be described as a temporary set-back to the Al-Qaeda. By no means does it mean an end to global terrorism, on the contrary, revenge attacks can be expected to be launched with renewed ferocity. The situation is indeed frustrating and the US knows that Pakistan is not the best strategic partner. However, it does not appear likely that the US will snap the ties with them in a hurry. As regards the Indo-Pakistan relationship, notwithstanding the widespread anger in India with respect to Pakistan’s blatant support to terrorists which now stands exposed, the Indian government appears determined to pursue the peace process. This can best be summed up by quoting a senior Indian official in the first briefing on the government's assessment after Osama's death[4], "Osama's killing will not change the universe of the discourse between India and Pakistan. Talks with Pakistan will continue... They have serious problems within that country at the moment confronting the monster that they have played a role in creating....but we have to engage them on the issues of normalisation, whether it comes to trade, humanitarian exchange, prisoners (or) cross-LoC trade in Jammu and Kashmir."