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The continued growth of China's overall national power, including its military capabilities, and the manner in which strong resurgent China will employ this power will have far-reaching consequences both for Asia and the world. The Chinese leadership's commitment to build comprehensive national strength (CNS) and leveraging its strategic configuration of power (SCP) to achieve its strategic interests remain a major factor in shaping the future stability and security of Asia.
China as it consolidates it power over the next couple of decade is likely to have a multi-dimensional impact upon other states of the Asia-Pacific region, an assessment broadly accepted by the strategic community the world over. Most of these countries are likely to be affected by Beijing's changing economic and military capabilities, its trade and defence policies, its approach toward resolution of bilateral disputes, and the manner in which it will leverage this power. India, which too is rapidly developing as a strong economic and military power, will be greatly impacted by these developments particularly as both countries share common strategic space in Asia. Even in United States there is growing recognition that following Soviet disintegration, and Japanese power contained within the U.S.-Japan alliance, China will be leading challenger to its future geopolitical aspirations in Asia-Pacific. China is emerging as a 'peer' competitor and an alternative center of power and influence in the region. Analysts are of the view that United States determination to preserve its status of global pre eminence and China's determination to reassert its historical and traditional dominant position in Asia is likely to lead to unavoidable and inevitable rivalry Sino-US rivalry. This will impact on virtually every international issue and in all parts of the world, with Asia bearing the brunt. The dimension and manner in which competition unfolds will to a degree determine the course of future security situation in Asia-Pacific.
China's Role in Asia
It needs to be acknowledged that China's growing power and expanding role in Asia, is not only likely to continue but this trend could get accelerated over the next two decades, barring an unforeseen internal crisis in China. In geo strategic terms states across Asia are likely to be "sucked" into the Chinese economic vortex through increasing economic ties, resources relationships, and investments in infrastructure. As one analyst recently observed that China's Asian strategy is linked directly to its multinational strategy-using multilateral and regional organizations to bolster its economic and political ties across Asia-which supports its modernization strategy. As a result, Asian economies are getting increasingly intertwined with China, which, is beginning to have geopolitical implications for Asia in general and India in particular. An interesting aspect that emerged during a recent international Scenario Building Seminar in Canberra, Australia was the likely problem faced by the US in managing existing alliances in Asia in the backdrop of growing economic integration of Asian economies with China.
There should be no doubt that the underlying aim of the current Chinese leadership is to make China a great power-"world class, second to none"-and that to achieve this goal, the Chinese are consciously and unwaveringly erecting the building blocks of comprehensive national power. Chinese leaders understand that the hard power (e.g., military and economic power) the country has been accumulating over the past 15 years can easily be translated into soft power that enables it to dissuade and deter other states' behavior.
China's growth and activities in Asia underscore the importance and urgency for India's economic success and emergence as a major regional player. Underlying the central importance of successful economic reforms and growth, particularly if India seeks to play a balancing role in Asia, and wants to be accepted as the preferable strategic partner, and above all taken seriously. In fact policymakers/academics from Asian states, particularly from Southeast Asia, and to a degree Japan and Taiwan would like to see India accelerating economic reforms and improve economic infrastructure in order to provide alternative choices. It is important for India to maximize the "arc of advantage" by strengthening relationships with key countries in Asia-Japan, Israel, Vietnam, Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore, and Iran-as well as Australia. The underlying theme of Indian Prime Ministers initiative for strategic understanding with the US despite major criticism is underscored by above realisation.
Chinese Balance of Power Strategy in Asia
This is predicated on the fact that China seeks to lead a "unipolar Asia" and is using the concept of "multipolarity" as a smokescreen to facilitate its dominance in Asia. To achieve this broad geo strategic objective that is in tune with the propensities of Middle Kingdom, it is attempting a twin track strategy. One it is incrementally maximizing the power gap between strong Asian neighbours - Japan, India, and Russia. As also by pitting Pakistan against India, North Korea against Japan and South vs North Korea it is attempting to keep its potential Asian rivals preoccupied. In addition, China is using states such as Iran, Myanmar, and Bangladesh etc. as pawns in its balance of power strategy. Secondly it is using soft power in terms of political and economic engagement to incrementally enhance its strategic space in Asia. Its eventual aim is to contain the influence of beleaguered United States to become a pre-eminent power in Asia particularly in terms of economic and strategic dominance. This scenario however is predicated in Chinese perspective upon the medium and long term implications of 'India's rise' and the manner in which resurgent India will attempt to shape its strategic space. That this scenario is worrisome to the Chinese is indicated by frequent assertion by Chinese scholars that whereas China and India could coexist in Asia, their being partners was implausible. Fundamentally Chinese believe that as both countries rise simultaneously competition between the two is inherent. It is the nature of competition that is often left undefined.
China's Economic Orbit
Given the current Chinese trade and other indicators China barring unforeseen and uncontrolled internal developments will overtake the United States over the next two decades as the largest trading partner of every Asian nation. As trade with China grows rapidly, many of the Southeast Asian states and even countries like Australia, South Korea and even Japan will be drawn into the Chinese economic orbit (if not already so), increasing Chinese influence over these states and critically restraining their strategic choices. This trend, which will be difficult to counter, and gives China a growing sense of autonomy on how to build its relationships with other states. In such a scenario dilemma for India will be whether to be more aggressive in positioning itself as a balancer to China in Southeast Asia and Central Asia both as an economic partner and a player of consequences in the regional organizations, such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), ASEAN +3 (or +4) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) etc. Particularly as such a positioning runs the inherent risk of alienating China, for the most part if it is seen as a part of broad based collaborative strategy with the US.
Challenges Posed by China
From Indian perspective despite the enthusiasm about Sino-Indian economic relations and growing political and strategic understanding, there are a range of unsettling developments and concerns about China's role and intentions in Asia that will have a direct impact on India. These developments need to be monitored carefully and India needs to be prepared to counter Chinese inroads with its own strategy. Unfortunately in most areas of present and future competition India lacks a coherent and effective counter-strategy. Be that as it may what is disconcerting is that inconvenient and searching issues are deliberately left off the table at high-level Sino-Indian discussions merely for the sake of moving the relationship forward.
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