CHINA's POLITICAL POWER TRANSITION
Dr Roshan Khaniejo*
Introduction
The 18th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is expected to convene sometime in 2012.It will test the orderly succession and formation of the new government as established by the CCP. It will be a challenge for China’s “Heir apparent” to see if the senior party members can overcome various factional divides and emerge as one unit under a new collective leadership. In the People’s Republic of China, the Party rules both state and society, hence it is very important to understand how the political leaders emerge in various generations and the way in which they shape their country’s future.
Leadership Succession
The era of political slogans and ideologies such as the “Anti rights campaign” and the “Great Proletariat Cultural Revolution” marked the beginning of an all-powerful Mao Zedong’s repressive rule, along with the commencement of “First Generation Leaders”. During his reign there was a lack of an organized cadre system .The CCP political leaders suffered under Mao’s vindictive and mercurial campaigns. His autocratic ways brought a suppressed unrest in the party. After Mao’s death, Deng Xiaoping a prominent member of the “Gang of Four” succeeded him and he started a series of political reforms, the effects of which can be seen even today. Along with Deng Xiaoping the “Second Generation leaders “ were Chen Yun, Zhao Ziyang,Li Peng to name a few, and they represented the powerful “ Eight Immortals”. Although Deng Xiaoping was an autocrat, he designed a system of collective leadership which in years to come became a strong pillar in the Chinese political system .He made the revolutionary cadre youthful and professional, by starting the process of early retirement (68yrs+) for political leaders.
The mass political unrest in 1989 in conjunction with the collapse of the Soviet Union and the Eastern Block had a great impact on the survival of the Communist Political system in China. CCP leaders observed Russia’s debacle keenly, and the party elders decided to resist the liberal political leaders in the party. Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao who had suppressed the “Bourgeois liberation” in Shanghai, and the “unrest in the Tibetan region” respectively; were given the reigns to lead the country successively. Thus emerged the “Third and Fourth generation Leaders”. The consolidation of power by Jiang Zemin led to the formation of the “Shanghai Clique”, which was a list of Jiang Zemin loyalists who were given prominent party positions. At the 14th Party Congress in 1992 Hu Jintao was nominated to the Politburo’s Standing Committee (PSC). He was made the director of the Central Party School where he influenced the grooming of rising CCP cadres. His tenure in the past as Head of the “Chinese Communist Youth League”(CCYL) helped him to bring young and loyal party workers to the forefront and later on these along with other members of this league became his key supporters.
Fifth Generation Leaders
The “Fifth Generation” leaders of the CCP are getting ready to assume the leading posts in the CCP at the 18th Party Congress. These leaders were exposed to the Cultural Revolution at a very young age, and this had a major impact on their lives. For example Xi Jinping was sent to the country side when he was just fifteen. In the 1950s and 60s China pursued the industrialization policies followed by Russia. As a result most of its leaders took a degree in engineering. However; with time the new generation leaders became educated in diverse fields like economics and humanities. They completed their higher studies (mainly their post graduate degrees) from renowned universities in China and abroad. Xi Jinping did his PhD majoring in Marxist Theory from the elite Tsinghua University. Those who were in the commercial sector worked as corporate executives in the state owned enterprises. Thus the Fifth Generation leaders have emerged as more educated, skilled technocrats compared to their predecessors. They also have immense administrative experience, as they have worked in various capacities in the Chinese provinces. Xi Jinping worked in the Fujian Province as Governor. There he encouraged the Taiwanese investors to invest in the province and he also gained a good working knowledge about the political economy and the finer nuances of the cross-strait relations. Most of these new generation leaders are also “princelings” for example Xi Jinping’s father Xi Zhongxun was the governor of Guangdong province in southern China. These leaders are also divided in their affinity, either to “Shanghai Clique” or to the “China Communist Youth League”.
The Balancing Act
The PSC members have their allegiance to one of the two factions namely the “China Communist Youth League”.(CCYL) or the “Shanghai Clique”. The former had patrons like Hu Jintao, Li Keqiang whereas the latter had Jiang Zemin, Xi Jinping etc. The policies formed by the former group have more to do with China’s inland Province and centre on propaganda, legal affairs etc. Whereas the policies formulated by the latter centre towards coastal area development and deal with trade, commerce and finance. .What remains to be seen is whether the Fifth Generation leaders are able to work towards strengthening the status of the Party by not only maintaing the balance between the two warring factions but also appeasing the third faction supported by the so called “Party Elders “ who even after their retirement ,influence the party’s political and administrative policies.
Economic Stability
The economic growth of a country depends on the foresight of its leaders, the political stability, and the continuity in economic policies. China in Xi Jinping has a leader who not only wants economic modernization, but is also an advocate of market socialism. Not only does he believe in economic and political reforms, but he also has excellent organizational skills required to implement them. He was responsible for the success of Beijing Olympics. Wikileaks in 2007 said Xi Jinping was “attentive to social security challenges, political reforms and efforts to fight corruption”. Next in league is Li Keqiang likely to be the PRC Premier .He is known as an astute technocrat especially on economic issues .He holds a PhD in economics from Beijing University and will be responsible for China’s macroeconomic policies. These two important political leaders with a sound background in economics are going to see China through 2020.
Political Stability
The standing committee has nine members out of which seven are likely to retire. Similarly another seven members are expected to retire from the full politburo which has a strength of twenty five members. The party posts will be filled mostly by Fifth generation leaders, who will continue to hold office till 2020, thereby ensuring a decade of continuity in political and economic policies. In all probability the CCP will be able to control the political infighting by maintaining the appropriate balance between all the factions, thus ensuring a smooth leadership transition.
Conclusion
China under Xi Jinping will probably grow stronger economically, militarily and politically. It is difficult to predict how China will behave in the coming years. Initially the new team may continue the old policies and maintain a status quo, however once the new members of the PSC consolidate their positions, they are bound to be more assertive in their approach. The fire of the red dragon would be felt by most countries, especially India, as India’s relations with China have been turbulent in the past .The uncooperative attitude of China in solving the border issue along with the speed with which China is modernizing its armed forces are causes of concern. In comparison to China India’s political stability will face some anxious moments as she is also due for elections in 2014. A hung parliament or a coalition government is not a very encouraging scenario for the country’s economic growth and military development. India needs to watch these developments carefully and take appropriate measures.
* Dr Roshan Khaniejo is Associate Research Fellow at the Centre for Strategic Studies and Simulation, USI.
(Article uploaded on May 31, 2012).
Disclaimer: The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of the organisation that he belongs to or of the USI