A Report – “Kazakhstan's Views on Solving the Afghan Problem" *
By Marat Kogabayev**
Historically, stability in the Central Asian Region (CAR) depends largely on the internal political situation in Afghanistan. Many developments have started to change the situation. The politicians however, traditionally prefer to discuss the resolution of the unstable situation focusing attention far away from the source of the problem. Today, the stability and security of Afghanistan is determined by three main factors:-
(a) The presence and expansion of the scope of military operations by the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) against the Taliban movement in the South and the South-East of the country.
(b) Highly diversionary tactics and terrorist activity of the Taliban in big cities and on the main lines of communication.
(c) The US attempts for weakening the support base of the Taliban, both within Afghanistan and from beyond its borders – mainly from Pakistan territory.
However, while the attention of the USA is confined to only one or two Afghan provinces, the situation is getting worse in the whole country. The Central government is effective only in the capital and some provinces of Afghanistan. Coalition forces are separated and defenceless in most regions of the country.
Inspite of the constant presence and increase of the ISAF and anti-terrorist coalition in Afghanistan, the Taliban influence is increasingly intensifying, especially in the military action zones. Thus, according to experts’ estimates the Taliban took control of 54 per cent of the country’s territory in 2007; in 2009, it increased to 72 per cent and now their influence has extended almost in all provinces of Afghanistan. Along with this, in the period from 2007 to 2011, the Taliban has been taking under its control most of the district centres in the South of Afghanistan. The alternative Taliban authority, established in these areas/territory collect taxes, regulate trade, control movement on local roads and administer the ‘Shariat’ justice as well.
Unfortunately, the USA and most of its allies in the coalition have still not understood that, nowadays, NATO countries in Afghanistan are not only fighting against the terrorists, but they are also involved in fighting against the local population. This is because the Taliban form part of the Afghan population also. According to experts, upto 80 per cent Taliban fighters are from among the local population.
Anti-terrorist operations in the last 10 years to stabilise the situation in Afghanistan, by fighting against the Taliban continuously, have failed. According to official data, ten thousand civilians have lost their lives without any tangible result as yet. The country's authorities have tried to conduct peace negotiations with the Taliban without any significant results.
All efforts of the current Afghanistan government are aimed at drawing the Taliban and other representatives of the armed opposition forces into the process of National reconciliation. However, the prospects of these negotiations are not viewed with optimism, as the main pre-condition of the Taliban is, ‘complete withdrawal of foreign troops’.
The US officials are pressurising the Western coalition partners to retain the presence of their troops in the country. Intensification of military presence of the US forces is not liked in Pakistan (there are military instructors and agents of Special Forces in the country), because in the last few years, attacks by drones have been increasing in the border regions of Afghanistan. Majority of the US coalition partners hold the view that withdrawal of their military contingents from Afghanistan should be made up by Afghanistan military and suitably trained police, which would be beneficial both from economic and security point of view.
Terrorist attacks have also taken place beyond the Afghanistan territory, particularly in Europe. Enough evidence and information about the Islamic terrorists groups preparing for a series of terrorist attacks in Berlin, London and Paris is available on the network. The Radical Islamic Organisations (RIO) data clearly indicates the involvement of Pakistan in such nefarious activities.
Despite the fact, that Pakistan is an ally of the USA in the region, camps for training extremists still exist in this country. Most of these camps are located in North Waziristan in Pakistan, in the so-called "tribal areas" located along the Afghanistan border. Leaders of the Taliban, including the head of Al-Qaeda, Osama bin Laden recently liquidated by the US Special Services force, are based in this region.
Majority of the experts presently feel that targeting just the common soldiers cannot defeat the Taliban movement. During the last three decades of military action in Afghanistan; unfortunately, the ongoing warfare has become a kind of ‘work’ or ‘profession’ and a source of livelihood for significant part of the male population – leading to increase in the number of militants and religious-extremist groups in the country. The Taliban leadership remains unharmed as they remain hidden in Pakistan, where they have "sponsors" to look after their financial and material means!! Along with this, the US controlled drone attacks in Waziristan have led to colateral deaths, which have complicated the situation in Pakistan, leading to growth in extremist sentiment.
Pakistan’s policy directly impacts the regional security. Firstly, it refers to its commitment to ‘participation in fight against the Taliban’. Unfortunately, at the same time Pakistan’s special services and military continue to support the Afghan fighters. The Pakistan authorities are aware of the ‘Taliban danger’ against their own statehood. However, they just cannot stop support to the Afghan fighters, as the rejection of this support would endanger their own existence. Another factor that favours the Pakistani support to the Taliban is the ‘ethnic composition’ of the Armed Forces of Pakistan.
Today, Pakistan’s nuclear policy and ownership of nuclear weapons, has given its military and special services a dominant role, which is causing a serious threat to the security of countries in the CAR.
The situation in Afghanistan is further aggravated due to deliberate attempts of some states to interfere in the internal affairs of the country, guided by ulterior motives, which are opposed to Afghan interests. An international proposal to solve the regional crisis permanently by the USA and NATO countries faces much opposition from the Muslim world for their own reasons. The Taliban has already declared that all countries which assist the USA in this process will be treated as enemies of the Muslim world.
This has confirmed that the military operations of the US and NATO armed forces have not changed the situation in Afghanistan fundamentally. The measures undertaken for the elimination of international terrorism and drug trafficking centres in the country have not succeeded so far. The Afghan administration and the international coalition forces are still unable to exercise full control over the entire territory of the country. Much more needs to be done by creating suitable conditions for the functioning of the Afghanistan armed forces and police training bases. The heightened activities of terrorist organisations based in Afghanistan, indicate that they have a huge potential to destabilise situation in the region. Unity among Central Asian countries is very important to overcome this crisis.
Aggravation of the situation across Afghan-Uzbek and Afghan-Tajik borders areas provokes and catalyses destabilising processes in Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. It also increases the degree of threat and military security of Kazakhstan. The continuing "war" situation in Afghanistan is the most destabilising factor affecting the security of the CAR. It cannot be ignored by the political leadership of Kazakhstan at any cost.
Since February 12, 1992, diplomatic relations and interaction between Kazakhstan and Afghanistan have been developing progressively. The heads of states meet regularly within the framework of various international arrangements. The Kazakh-Afghan Inter-Governmental Commission (IGC) on Trade and Economic Cooperation plays an important role in the development of trade and economic relations. Kazakhstan’s educational programme for Afghani citizens has made them realise the importance of education. The first group of 152 Afghan students started their studies in Kazakhstan at the end of September 2010. The Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan has granted (allotted) 2.3 million US dollars for constructing schools, hospitals and asphalt roads in Afghanistan. Besides this, ten thousand tons of foodstuff have also been provided as humanitarian aid to Afghanistan. Bilateral trade turnover touched 364 million US dollars in 2010 – export being 362.7 million and imports are at 1.3 million.
The legislative support is based on various agreements through bilateral relations and cooperation between the Republic of Kazakhstan and the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (IRA) e.g. Agreement on Trade and Economic Cooperation; Agreement on Education Cooperation, Agreement on Cooperation against illicit traffic of narcotic drugs, psychotropic substances and their precursors; and Protocol on the establishment of diplomatic relations.
Kazakhstan advocated the idea of ‘Greater Central Asia’, at the conference on ‘Partnership, Trade and Development in Greater Central Asia’ held at Kabul in 2006. During this conference, it also articulated the importance of Afghanistan’s participation in the processes for restoration of Afghan statehood and revival of social and economic through regional cooperation. Afghan government's strategy for the Country’s development named as "The Afghan Contract" during the London conference has been viewed positively by Kazakhstan.
Kazakhstan is actively encouraging the expansion of economic cooperation in the framework of regional organisations such as ECO, SCO, EurAsEc and CAREC; and realisation of the regional programme through the Special Programme for the Economics of Central Asia (SPECA). The efforts to connect Afghanistan with the external world, by restoring its infrastructural links with Central and the South Asia, to maintain easy access to energy resources for the growing economies of the South Asia is showing positive results. The highway construction project between Almaty, Bishkek, Osh, Dushanbe, Kabul, Kandahar and Karachi, being financed by the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank, the USA and Japan, needs close monitoring to facilitate transparency in execution of the work.
The most urgent task in short term is to re-establish stability and security of Afghanistan and to completely ban the production and distribution of narcotic drugs. The restoration of infrastructural facilities in Afghanistan should also be progressed simultaneously.
Kazakhstan is a steady key holder of regional integration. The President of Kazakhstan, NA Nazarbayev was one of the first to draw attention of the UN General Assembly to the fact that ‘the CAR is out of range of the UN vision’. He suggested the creation of the UN Economic and Social Commission for Central Asia. Now this programme is actively working as an international project. Afghanistan became an active participant in this programme from May, 2005 at Astana, at a regular meeting of the regional advisory committee of SPECA.
Kazakhstan's initiative at the conference on ‘Interaction and Measures of Confidence in Asia’ (CICA) is recognised as an independent factor in world policy formulations and a favourable move for providing security in the Asian continent. Presently, 17 states of the world are members of the CICA, including all Central Asian countries. In our opinion, the participation of Afghanistan in these projects would be useful for the regional cooperation.
We are convinced that cooperation of Afghanistan with the SCO and the Central Asian Regional Information and Coordination Centre (CARICC) on problems of joint fight against drug trafficking and international terrorism has paramount importance for ensuring stability and peaceful development of the region.
The SCO held its Tenth Anniversary Summit on June 15, 2011 in Astana. The Astana Declaration confirmed that the SCO supports Afghanistan’s emergence as an independent, neutral, peaceful and prosperous state. Achievement of peace and stability in Afghanistan is one of the main factors on the agenda to maintain regional and international security. The SCO member states have also pledged to continue their assistance to the friendly Afghan population in their efforts to revive the country. Kazakhstan also believes that a huge responsibility for restoration of peace and stability in the state depends on the leadership of Afghanistan. Therefore, the Afghan government should initiate realistic action to consolidate all ethnic groups and prevent further escalation of the fratricidal war in the country.
At the end, I would like to say that internal and foreign policies of Kazakhstan and India, and mutual cooperation between us as equal partners may serve as a good example, which could be emulated by Afghanistan.
Finally, I would like to quote from the book ‘Glimpses of World History’, by Jawaharlal Nehru, “As in the days of Socrates, we live in an age of questioning, but that questioning is not confined to a city of Athens; it is worldwide”.
*Paper presented at a Joint USI-Military and Strategic Studies (Kazakhstan) Bilateral Discussion held at USI on 10 Oct 2011.
**Marat Kogabayev, a Colonel in reserve is a researcher of the joint-stock company “the Military Strategic Studies Centre”.