Introduction
The
recent incidence of the United States shooting a Chinese ‘civilian airship’
(as named by the Chinese) or high-altitude
surveillance balloon (as stated by the US) raises many questions. This
is not the first time that the Chinese have sent these balloons to the US, in
the past during Trump’s administration “three other suspected Chinese spy balloons had transited
the continental United States undetected”. It was undetected due to “domain awareness
gaps”, this fact was mentioned by the Pentagon General, responsible for
providing air and missile defense over North America[i].
This particular balloon which was successfully shot down by the American F-22
fighter jets was “200 feet tall, with a payload the size of a regional jet
weighing over a couple of thousand pounds”[ii].
This incident shows that the aggressive policies of China under President Xi Jinping are continuing, infact they are becoming more brazen, as the Chinese are now not
hesitating even to test the US. The Americans on their part have also sent a
clear signal, that they will react, if, their airspace is being violated,
irrespective of what the nature of balloon may be, further, they will also be
definitely analysing the debris to understand the character of these balloons.
The other friendly nations would like America to share their analysed data with
them, however, whether they do so or not is another matter, which needs to be
seen.
Historical
Aspect and Advantages of Spy Balloons
Spy
balloons are not a new phenomenon, the United
States had used high-altitude balloons in the 1950s, to spy on the then Soviet
Union[iii]
However, with the technological advancements, newer more sophisticated reconnaissance
and other spy satellites were invented, and the balloons were abandoned. The
main reason for this was the limiting nature of these balloons, as they were
dependent on the winds and were un-steerable, hence, they were not considered a
smart choice for spying. It is already known that China has many spy satellites
which gather significant information, as also the Chinese modus operandi when
it comes to information gathering is multi-domain, which includes cyber, human
intelligence along with satellites, so the question is, why did they go in for
such an inferior technology, when they already have sophisticated technologies available? The reasons are
multifarious. Firstly, they preferred to
use these balloons because detecting these balloons through radar is difficult,
because of their speed and altitude at which they fly, which is often close to
earth’s lower stratosphere, nearly 60,000 feet (18,300 meters) and which is
thankfully above the airspace required for commercial airliners,
further,
the nature of the balloons to drift, because of their dependence on the wind,
makes it difficult for the military installations to depict and predict them.
Secondly, the technology has improved their manoeuvrability, they can now hover
around a sensitive area for a longer time and gather information in more
detail, unlike the satellites which have a set pattern with a constant motion, thirdly,
“simple cameras on balloons can produce clearer
images than those on orbital satellites, as also other surveillance equipment
in the balloon can pick up signals that do not reach the altitude of
satellites”[iv]
Finally, they are easy to camouflage, and have dual use function. Thus, these balloons have a fair amount of
advantage when it comes to surveillance. However, the major issue encountered
by the nations, whose airspace they violate, is that there are no procedures
which can ascertain whether these balloons are for meteorological purposes or
it is for surveillance. No country will overtly declare that they are using
these as a surveillance tool, further, with China there has been trust issues
also. So, Chinese saying that these balloons are for meteorological
purposes is difficult to buy, in such a scenario it will only increase mistrust
and escalate tensions, especially, if it were to fly over those countries where
relations are tense. Further, it is a known fact that the Chinese are
undergoing massive military modernisation with the sole aim to become a major
power. They are developing niche and disruptive weapons and strategies to
coerce their opponents, so they cannot be relied on.
Chinese
Disruptive Strategies
To
say that China under President Xi Jinping has become aggressive will be an
understatement. China through her ‘wolf
warrior diplomacy’, or the ‘grey zone tactics or the creeping ‘salami slicing
tactics’ on land, have tried in the past, to change the status quo in their
favour. Further, in many global incidents, they have been adept in camouflaging
their intent, the major example is the militarisation of the islands in the
South China Sea. Thus, one can say that through these balloons the Chinese,
have been cleverly expanding their unconventional tactics from land and sea to
now space. In space traditionally, the Chinese have been using spy satellites
but now these balloons in the garb of meteorological tools, have become another
camouflaged idea to gather sensitive information from their adversaries. Further, as there has been a trust deficit,
when it comes to China’s relationship with countries of Indo-pacific, hence, it
is difficult to believe that these balloons are just for meteorological purposes,
therefore, on violation of airspace the nations need to condemn China for this
strategy.
Chinese
Violation of Airspace
Needs to be Condemned
Legally
the Chinese are wrong in sending these balloons which violate the airspace of other countries and the
fact that it could pass through the sensitive sites, as was evident in the case with the US, where it travelled over Montana. Air Force
Base, one of three bases that hosts nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic
missile fields[v] makes
these manoeuvres, escalatory in nature. The US was right in shooting down
this balloon, because types of these
balloons have been placed in the category of aircrafts, hence the international
Civil Aviation treaty could be applied to it. These balloons have been
violating the airspace of many countries and it was left to USA to shoot it down.
The question is not about it, being a civilian unmanned airship for
meteorological purposes, as was stated by the Chinese, but the fact, that it
can trespass other countries airspace and
create undue tensions, this is a cause of concern. Consider the scenario if it
passes through the airspace of those countries where the relationship is tense,
what could be the consequence of such a manoeuvre? The Chinese reaction to US shooting was
subdued, but if some other country would have shot it down, would the reaction
been the same, or it would have led to more threatening and aggressive
posturing. The repercussions even here are evident as far as US-China relations
are concerned, as President Biden has cancelled his trip to China and the
Chinese are continuing with the propaganda, of condemning the use of force by
the US. Further, this incident is not a
one alone incident there are reports that another balloon has also been sited
violating another country’s airspace, so just
saying that it was a force majeure accident, may not hold
good, because these balloons are bound to drift because of its dependence on
the wind. So, it is for nations to come
forward and condemn these balloons and send a strong signal that any airspace violations in any country
will have the same fate as was done by the US. This may prevent China from
making it a regular strategy.
Implications
for India
Condemning
such violation of airspaces
needs to be voiced, to prevent China from adopting these strategies as norms.
Because, these balloons can not only gauge the surface targets more accurately
but as mentioned by John K. Culver, a former
senior intelligence officer at the Central Intelligence Agency “may include
data on atmospheric conditions and also communications that could not be
gleaned from outer space”[vi]. Hence,
to counter these, nations, need to develop better domain awareness, as was suggested by the US in previous
paragraphs, and in case of India the intent too, to shoot these balloons if
they violate our airspace,
because India has the capabilities to shoot them. As also, India needs to have
adequate information about the other ongoing and future projects of China. With
US shooting this balloon
a precedence has been set, now it is up to individual nations to adopt this
method and nullify China’s this strategy of covert surveillance. China is bound
to adopt many other such strategies in future which will require timely action.
End
Notes
[i]
and , Pentagon says it had
an ‘awareness gap’ that led to failure to detect 3 Chinese balloons under
Trump, CNN, February 6, 2023, AT https://edition.cnn.com/2023/02/06/politics/pentagon-balloon-monday/index.html
[ii] Ibid
[iii] James Andrew Lewis,
“The Chinese Spy Balloons” The Sky is the Limit”, Centre for Strategic &
International Studies, Feb 3, 2023, at
https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinese-spy-balloons-skys-limit#:~:text=Balloons%20were%20an%20important%20tool,complained%20and%20shot%20them%20down).
[iv] Julian E. Barnes, Edward Wong, Helene Cooper and Chris Buckley, China Sends Spy Balloons Over Military Sites Worldwide,
U.S. Officials Say, New Yoork Times, Februry,8, 2023, at https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/08/us/politics/china-spy-balloons.html#:~:text=The%20balloon%20flights%2C%20some%20officials,a%20conflict%20or%20rising%20tensions.
[v] W.J.
Hennigan , “The Chinese
Balloon Was Shot Down By the U.S. Military. Here's How It Went Down”, The Time,
February 05 ,2023 at https://time.com/6253010/chinese-spy-balloon-shot-down/
[vi] Julian E. Barnes, Edward Wong, Helene Cooper and Chris Buckley, China Sends Spy Balloons Over Military Sites Worldwide,
U.S. Officials Say, New Yoork Times, Februry,8, 2023, at
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/08/us/politics/china-spy-balloons.html#:~:text=The%20balloon%20flights%2C%20some%20officials,a%20conflict%20or%20rising%20tensions.
Dr Roshan Khanijo is the Assistant Director at the Centre for Strategic Studies & Simulation (CS3).
Article uploaded on 10-02-2023
Disclaimer : The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of the organisation that he/she belongs to or of the USI of India.