Introduction
On 16 April 2024, Ukrainian President
Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed a new mobilisation law aimed at addressing the
country's pressing manpower issues within the armed forces. The law, which came
into force on 18 May 2024, aims to address the country's pressing manpower
issues within the armed forces amid the ongoing Russian invasion. However, it
has been criticised for not addressing the topic of demobilisation for the
hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians who have been serving since the onset of
the full-scale Russian invasion more than two years ago.[1]
Key Provisions
·
The
law introduces an online registry for recruits, making it easier to identify
and manage conscripts.[2]
·
The
age for draft eligibility has been lowered from 27 to 25, expanding the pool of
potential conscripts.[3]
·
Men
of military age must update their registration details within 60 days of the
law entering into force, either at regional offices or via an online portal.
·
Citizens
must carry their military registration documents and present them upon request
or when applying for a passport.[4]
·
The
law abolishes mandatory conscription for Ukrainian men aged 18 or older,
replacing it with basic military training for all men starting from September
2025.
·
The
law offers financial perks for people who volunteer to fight in the army and
sign an army contract, including certificates to buy a vehicle and financial
assistance for first mortgage payments.
·
Penalties
for evading mobilisation include modest fines and the potential revocation of
driver’s licenses, with fines for draft evasion increased fivefold.
·
The
law does not extend to military-age females, although many Ukrainian women do
choose to enlist in the armed forces voluntarily.[5]
·
The
law does not have clear deadlines for demobilisation, but it provides for
discharge from military service under certain circumstances.
·
The
law allows people who have been convicted and given a suspended sentence to
serve in the army.
·
Authorities
will be able to seize vehicles from citizens and enterprises for the army's
needs.
The implications of
Ukraine's new mobilisation law are far-reaching and complex. The law introduces
an online registry for recruits, making it easier to identify and manage
conscripts, and lowers the age for draft eligibility, expanding the pool of
potential conscripts. As stated earlier, the criticism of Ukraine's new
mobilization law centres around its failure to address the demobilization of
hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians who have been serving since the onset of
the full-scale Russian invasion more than two years ago. The law also provides
financial perks for people who volunteer to fight in the army and sign an army
contract, although some could question Ukraine's ability to afford such
incentives. The law's failure to address demobilisation has eroded trust in the
government, further driving the desire to flee among soldiers who have been
fighting since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. The law could lead to
the closure of businesses if the military drafts too many workers, disrupting
the economy, and essential municipal services, such as heating and utility
repairs, will be affected.
The legislation is seen as
a key step in Ukraine's efforts to reform its military recruitment process and
meet the unprecedented challenges posed by Russia’s ongoing invasion, with
Russia reportedly aiming to sign up hundreds of thousands of additional troops
in preparation for a major summer offensive. Ukraine is racing against the
clock to strengthen its military before Russia's summer offensive can fully
unfold, with the new mobilisation law being seen as a key step in this effort.
Business and Economic Implications
The Ukrainian new mobilisation law has
significant business and economic implications. Businesses will have to provide
‘Notification’, which includes summoning citizens to the General Military
Commission and serving them with summons. Employers must ensure the timely
arrival of employees involved in the performance of mobilisation duties to
assembly points and military units.
Ukrainian businesses fear
that the new law could paralyse the economy, as it may lead to the closure of
businesses if the military drafts too many workers. Businesses worry about the
difficulty of replacing workers with specialised skills, which could lead to
the shutdown of operations.
The new law in Ukraine aims
to clarify the obligations of businesses regarding the mobilisation of
employees for military service. It introduces the concept of ‘Critical Enterprise’
status, which allows companies with a large number of employees of military age
to protect them from mobilisation. This status can be obtained by applying to
the relevant authorities, and the criteria for granting it may change over
time. The law also extends protection to the beneficial owners of these
businesses. This is important because Ukraine needs to balance its military
needs with the need to keep its economy running.
The law restricts the
driving of vehicles for individuals who do not comply with the mobilisation
rules, which may indirectly affect companies with their fleet of vehicles. This
restriction may disrupt logistics chains and have negative consequences for
business.
Concerns
The law’s criticism on not addressing
the topic of demobilisation has sparked controversy and criticism both within
Ukraine and internationally. It has also been criticised for not setting a time
limit for wartime military service, leaving soldiers who have been fighting
since the beginning of the full-scale invasion without a clear demobilisation
timeline.[6]
This has sparked concerns among families of servicemen, who demand the
inclusion of mobilisation deadlines.
Other concerns include the
potential for corruption, as local authorities may have too much discretion in
their decision-making. There are also questions about the fairness of the demobilisation
process, with some arguing that a day on the frontline should count as two or
three days in the rear.
The new law allows for
electronic military draft papers to be sent to potential draftees' personal
accounts on the main government portal, making it harder for men to avoid being
drafted. Those who fail to respond to the electronic summons will be
immediately banned from leaving the country, and penalties for draft dodgers
include bans on driving, registering a company, working as a self-employed individual,
obtaining credit or loans, selling apartments, buying property, or securing
social benefits. This raises concerns about the potential for individuals to be
unfairly penalized if they do not receive or respond to the electronic summons,
particularly if they do not have access to the government portal or are not
tech-savvy. Additionally, the law allows prisoners to join the army and
increases fines for draft evasion fivefold, which has raised concerns about the
morality and effectiveness of these measures.
Many Ukrainians have fled
the country to avoid the draft since Russia's all-out invasion in February
2022, with some risking their lives trying to swim across the Tisa River that
separates Ukraine from neighbouring Romania and Hungary.
Methodology
To further boost the mobilisation
process, the Ukrainian army plans to open a network of 27 new recruitment centres
in major cities across the country. These centres will function as advisory and
information hubs, providing guidance to those interested in joining the armed
forces and allowing candidates to choose which unit they prefer to serve in.[7]
Benefits and Drawbacks
Benefits.
·
The
law aims to facilitate the identification of every conscript in the country,
making it easier to manage the mobilisation process.
·
Streamlined
mobilisation process through an online registry for recruits.
·
The
law provides cash bonuses or financial assistance toward purchasing a house or
car for soldiers, which could help attract more volunteers.
·
Increased
manpower through the lowering of the draft age and the introduction of
financial incentives
·
Modernised
recruitment process through the opening of new recruitment centres.
Drawbacks.
·
Failure
to address the topic of demobilisation for current servicemen.
·
Lack
of a clear demobilisation timeline.
·
Controversy
over the mobilisation of prisoners.
·
Uncertainty
over the law's effectiveness in addressing manpower shortages. The law's
provisions, such as cash bonuses or financial assistance for soldiers, may be
difficult for Ukraine to afford.
·
The
law could lead to the closure of businesses if the military drafts too many
workers, disrupting the economy.
·
Staff
Shortages: Essential municipal services, such as heating and utility repairs,
will be affected, with concerns about replacing mobilised staff and meeting
demand.
Divisive
Ukraine's recent adoption of a
controversial mobilisation law has sparked widespread disagreement and
criticism both domestically and internationally. The law has caused divisions
among different groups within Ukraine and has led to polarised opinions among
stakeholders, contributing to a lack of consensus. Its implementation has
caused anxiety among Ukrainian citizens, especially those facing conscription,
prompting some to consider leaving the country. Concerns about economic
instability, government distrust, and human rights violations have heightened
tensions. Furthermore, the law's failure to address the demobilisation of
long-serving soldiers has further eroded public confidence in the government and
increased the desire to emigrate.
Human rights concerns,
particularly surrounding the treatment of refugees and internally displaced
persons, have intensified the prevailing sense of unease and desire to flee
Ukraine. This heightened anxiety stems from uncertainties about the safety and
well-being of vulnerable populations amidst the ongoing conflict. Additionally,
the lack of adequate support and protection for these individuals exacerbates
their vulnerability and adds to the urgency of finding refuge elsewhere.
While the new mobilisation
law offers incentives to potential recruits, such as cash bonuses and
assistance for housing or transportation, its affordability has been called
into question by some analysts. The financial strain of implementing these measures
raises concerns about the sustainability of such initiatives and their
long-term impact on Ukraine's economy. Moreover, the controversial provisions
allowing prisoners to join the army and imposing higher fines for draft dodgers
have further polarised opinions and contributed to the contentious nature of
the law.
Against the backdrop of a
renewed Russian offensive, Ukraine's military is under increased pressure,
prompting a lowering of the initial mobilisation target from 5,00,000 to a
lower number. The revised mobilization target in Ukraine is due to the immense
pressure on the country's military amidst a renewed Russian offensive. This
adjustment reflects practical considerations and the challenges faced in
mobilising such a large number of individuals amidst ongoing hostilities. The
decision to lower the conscription age aims to replenish depleted ranks but
raises concerns about the readiness and effectiveness of younger recruits.
However, the mobilisation
process faces numerous challenges, including concerns about its impact on the
economy, the need for enhanced training and equipment, and inadequate
communication from the government regarding its necessity. These challenges are
compounded by issues such as troop fatigue, the necessity for improved training
systems, and the lack of clear demobilisation or rotation procedures for
soldiers with prolonged frontline deployments. Addressing these complexities
requires comprehensive planning and coordination to ensure the effectiveness
and sustainability of Ukraine's military efforts.
Conclusion
In conclusion, Ukraine's new mobilisation
law is a step towards strengthening the military amidst Russian aggression.
While it has its advantages, such as streamlining the mobilisation process and
increasing manpower, it also has its disadvantages, including the failure to
address demobilisation and the controversy over prisoner mobilisation. The
law's effectiveness in addressing manpower shortages and countering Russia's
military strength remains uncertain, and its implementation comes as Ukraine
faces significant challenges on the battlefield.
[1] Elena Davlikanova, Kateryna Odarchenko , Ukraine’s new mobilization
law leaves demobilization issue unresolved, Atlantic Council, 2/05/2024, Date
accessed on- 24/05/2024
[2] Ibid.
[3] Ibid.
[4] Ibid.
[5] Ibid.
[6] Zelenskyy pleads for more support amid one of Russia’s largest
offensives of the war, 15/05/2024, accessed on- 24/05/2024
[7] Elena Davlikanova, Kateryna Odarchenko, opcit.
Maj Gen Sanjeev Chowdhry (Retd) is a veteran with over 37 years of commissioned service. A graduate of the DSSC Wellington, and College of Defence Management during his career, the General officer has served in all types of terrain and environment while on command, staff, and instructional duties. He specialises in the subject of Net Assessment and is presently the Director Editorial at the USI.
Article uploaded on 27-05-2024
Disclaimer : The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of the organisation that he/she belongs to or of the USI of India.