Introduction
On 16 May, Russian President
Vladimir Putin arrived in China on a two-day state visit to meet his ‘Dear Friend’
President Xi Jinping as the two countries look to further deepen a relationship
that has grown closer since Russia invaded Ukraine more than two years ago.
The
two Presidents had declared a “No limits” partnership days before the Russian
invasion in February 2022. In March 2023, when President Xi visited Moscow, he
described a “New era” in the countries’ relationship, while in October, when
Putin last visited Beijing, Xi spoke of the “Deep friendship” between the two.[i]
It
is President Putin’s first trip abroad since his March re-election and his
second in just over six months to China. The visit also comes days after Russia
launched a new offensive in the North-Eastern Kharkiv region which has met with
some success. Incidentally, President Xi, returned last week from a
three-nation tour of Europe, where he countered Western criticism of Beijing’s
ties with Moscow.
Sino–Russia Relations
As per Konstantin Kalachev,
an independent Russian political analyst, the visit is intended to show that
Sino-Russian relations are moving up another level, including the personal
relationship between the two leaders. [ii]
President
Putin, in an interview published in China’s Xinhua state news agency before his
visit, hailed China’s “Genuine desire” to help resolve the Ukraine crisis. By
this, he appeared to give his backing to a 12-point Ukraine peace plan that
Beijing released in February 2023.[iii] The two countries have
also deepened military ties, holding joint war games over the Sea of Japan and
the East China Sea, and organising training for ground forces in each other’s
territory.
During
his speech, President Xi praised "75 years of persistent accumulation of
ever-lasting friendship and all-round cooperation" between the two countries.[iv] President Xi also stated
that China earlier talked about a two-state solution for Israel and Palestine and
repeated that by saying it was the only option for lasting regional peace.
US
Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who met President Xi in Beijing last month,
warned that China’s support for Russia’s “Brutal war of aggression” in Ukraine
had helped Russia ramp up production of rockets, drones and tanks while
stopping short of direct arms exports.[v]
The Military Dimension
China
and Russia have worked together more closely in recent years. Their Air Force
and Navy have held joint military exercises, including near Alaska and Taiwan.
While China has not provided Russia with lethal weapons, it has been the top
supplier of components like semiconductors and machine tools that have both
civilian and military uses. As the dependencies on each other increase, China
will be able to demand access to key areas of military technology that the
Russians have developed benefiting from access to mainly European technology. This
is particularly true of Russian development in hypersonic and nuclear
propulsion technology, areas where it has worked steadily to close the gap with
the West and where China continues to lag.
Military
Cooperation is evident between the two countries even though they are not at a
stage of operating seamlessly. But military ties have increased from joint
training over the last twenty years to participating in each other’s strategic
drills and conducting regular naval exercises which have been also conducted
near Taiwan as well as air activity near Japan. Russia has also confirmed the transfer
for missile defence technology in 2019 though little detail of its progress is
available as per the Financial Times
Shadow of the Ukrainian
Conflict
Trade between China and
Russia has boomed since the Ukraine invasion and hit $240 bn in 2023, according
to Chinese customs figures. But after Washington vowed to go after financial
institutions that facilitate Moscow, Chinese exports to Russia dipped during
March and April, down from a surge early in the year. Last month, China's
Foreign Minister Wang Yi said; "Russian natural gas is fuelling numerous
Chinese households, and Chinese-made automobiles are running on Russian
roads". [vi]
Despite
efforts to isolate Russia and reduce its war-waging capacity, Russia’s economy
grew past expectations to grow at 3.6 per cent in 2023, according to data from
the International Monetary Fund. The sanctions have caused a shift in Russia’s trade
with China which emerged as its key economic lifeline. The two countries
reached $240 bn in bilateral trade, hitting a target to exceed $200 bn in
two-way trade by 2024 ahead of schedule which has made China Russia’s top trade
partner.
But
as the economic partnership comes under close scrutiny in the West, Chinese
banks fear US sanctions that might cut them off from the global financial system.
That, coupled with recent efforts to rebuild fractured ties with the United
States, may make Beijing reluctant to openly push for more cooperation with
Russia.
White
House officials in recent weeks have confronted Beijing on what they believe is
substantial support from China for Russia’s defence industrial base. Beijing
has slammed the US as making ‘Groundless Accusations’ over ‘Normal Trade and Economic
Exchanges’ between China and Russia.
The Joint Statement
In a lengthy joint statement,
Russia and China pledged to tighten ties between their militaries and expand
the scale of their joint exercises. The statement focussed on deepening their
strategic partnership and condemned “US nuclear missile deployments that
threatened Russia and China as well as Washington’s AUKUS alliance with the UK
and Australia”. The statement also said “Intend to increase interaction and
tighten co-ordination in order to counter Washington’s destructive and hostile
course towards the so-called ‘dual containment’ of our countries”.[vii]
Russia
welcomed China’s efforts to broker peace with Ukraine and also vowed to deepen
their economic partnership, which has emerged as a vital lifeline. The
statement condemned attempts to seize sovereign assets — a clear reference to
discussions over giving some of Russia’s frozen sovereign funds to Ukraine and
said the countries reserved the right to respond against them.
It
seems that in spite of Antony Blinken’s visit aimed at persuading China to
scale back its relationship with Moscow, both countries see eye to eye on a
range of important issues, including Ukraine, and resist Western pressure to
downgrade their ties.
Conclusion
Sari Avrho Havren of the
Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) says; “We should not
underestimate Russia’s ‘usefulness’ as a friend without limits to China and Xi
Jinping. Russia also sees Taiwan as an integral part of China, and we have
already seen speculation about the war scenario in the Indo-Pacific and whether
Russia would step up to help and join China in possible war efforts.”[viii]
While
Dr Jonathan Ward, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute says, “There may be
much more dangerous activity to come in the years ahead as these two
authoritarian states continue to deepen their relationship”.[ix]
Alexander
Gabuev with the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre has said that “every
relationship is assessed through three elements, what a country can bring to
advance Putin’s war effort in Ukraine; what a country can do for Russia’s
revenue streams to counter the impact of Western sanctions; and whether a
country can help Moscow push back against the West. China currently meets all
these”. [x]
There
is no doubt that the current China-Russia ties are based on a 'Confluence of Interests’.
In what is being portrayed as a battle between ‘Autocracy’ and ‘Democracy’, the
exchange between the two autocratic allies reveals that they are not hesitant
in flaunting their relationship, and believe their systems are better at
confronting the challenges in the increasingly volatile, uncertain, complex and
ambiguous world.
What
remains to be seen is how the US will deal with China both as far as its
aggressive expansionism is concerned and regarding trade which has expanded,
and it is now the largest trading partner of the US. Despite disagreements and
disputes, neither side can afford to sever relations.
The
war in Ukraine has brought out a core strategic realignment in the global power
distribution that is fast redefining the world order: the Sino-Russian
partnership that many had not given due importance to earlier. The outcome of
this visit undoubtedly has global ramifications as both China and Russia remain
committed on supporting each other’s core interests while the two countries remain
crucial to global order. This is the new global reality.
Endnotes
[1] Erin Hale, “‘Old Friend’ Putin and China’s Xi Strengthen
Strategic Ties at Summit.” Al Jazeera, 17 May, 2024. Accessed on 27/05/2024
[1] “Xi Jinping,
Vladimir Putin Hail Ties as ‘stabilising’ Force in Chaotic World.” The Economic
Times, 16 May, 2024. Accessed on 27/05/2024
[1] “Full Text of Xinhua’s Interview with Putin,” Xinhuanet,
15 May,2024. Accessed on 27/05/2024 https://english.news.cn/20240515/087c8ea9d6a040f1adb06eb818179ebe/c.html.
[1] Mike Nova. “Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin Call for
‘Political Solution’ to Ukraine War – BBC News - The Russian World.” The
Russian World - The Russian World - russianworld.net | The News And Times, May
16, 2024. Accessed on 27/05/2024
https://russianworld.net/world-asia-69001137/.
[1] Afp. “Putin Arrives in Beijing Seeking Greater Support
for War Effort.” The Times of India, May 15, 2024. Accessed on 27/05/2024
[1] Yi Ma, Kelly Ng. “How Is China Supporting Russia after
It Was Sanctioned for Ukraine War?,” May 17, 2024. Accessed on 27/05/2024
https://www.bbc.com/news/60571253.
[1] Joe leahy, Max Seddon, Demtri Sevastopulo “Vladimir
Putin and Xi Jinping Vow to Co-Operate against ‘Destructive and Hostile’ US,” 17
May, 2024. Accessed on 27/05/2024
https://www.ft.com/content/f77028c8-c960-4d10-b0eb-4c511924a4d5.
[1] Roy, Shubhajit. “Vladimir Putin Meets Xi Jinping: With
Deepening Russia-China Ties, What Are the Concerns for India?” The Indian
Express, May 17, 2024. Accessed on 27/05/2024
https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/xi-putin-and-the-world-9333972/.
[1] Sharma, Shweta. “Vladimir Putin Arrives to Meet Xi
Jinping in China as West Watches with Growing Concern.” The Independent, May
16, 2024. Accessed on 27/05/2024
[1] Lee, Michelle Ye Hee, and Pei-Lin Wu. “Putin Hails
Russia’s Ties with China as ‘Stabilizing’ Force in the World.” Washington Post,
May 16, 2024. Accessed on 27/05/2024
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/05/15/russia-vladimir-putin-china-xi-meeting/.
Major General Jagatbir Singh, VSM (Retd) is a Distinguished Fellow at the USI of India. Commissioned in 1981 into the 18 Cavalry, he has held various important command and Staff appointments including command of an Armoured Division.
Article uploaded on 28-05-2024
Disclaimer: The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of the organisation that he belongs to or of the USI of India.