Introduction
On 19 May 2024, an Iranian Air
Force helicopter crashed near the village of Tavil, East Azerbaijan, Iran,
killing President of Iran Ebrahim Raisi, Foreign Minister Hossein
Amir-Abdollahian, Governor-General of East Azerbaijan Malek Rahmati,
representative of the Supreme Leader in East Azerbaijan Mohammad Ali
Ale-Hashem, the head of the president's security team, and three flight crew
while on en route to the Iranian city of Tabriz. Among those found dead in the
wreckage of the crash, the most eminent was President Raisi. Dubbed the
‘Butcher of Tehran’ whose journey began as a young religious scholar and ended
with his death while being the President of Iran. Tehran is known to have been
the principal sponsor of Hamas in Israel, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Houthi
rebels in Yemen. Thus, the death of President Raisi in the crash intuitively
raised suspicion of a covert foreign hand. The talk of assassination surfaced
with Israel being the prime accused.[1]
Jerusalem, however, quickly distanced itself from the incident stating, “It
wasn’t us”.[2]
In the following
days, the discourse in the media focused on the death of the incumbent
president. However, the more pertinent question is of the succession of the
current Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The 85-year-old
Khamenei oversees, as part of his portfolio, a complex bureaucracy called the Beit-e
Rahbari (Leader’s Office). While also holding the supreme authority over
the jurisprudence, executive, judiciary, and legislature of Iran. The Supreme
Leader further holds the power to appoint the head of the judiciary, the elected
president, and exerts significant influence over the choice of the speaker of
parliament.
If Iran’s
history is any judge, the helicopter crash could very well be a successful
assassination attempt. What is more interesting about the crash and its
possible links to an assassination, is that it might have been engineered
internally and not externally, as some within Iran might assume.
A History of Bloodshed
Post the
Islamic Revolution (1979), Iran suffered an outbreak of assassinations of
senior officials. Among those killed for political reasons was the then Chief
Justice, Ayatollah Mohammed Beheshti. His death occurred when a powerful bomb
destroyed the Tehran headquarters of Iran's ruling Islamic Republican Party
killing over 70 including four cabinet ministers and 23 members of the Islamic
Consultative Assembly (parliament). The bombing in question was carried out by
the Mojahedin-e Khalq, a militant group that supported the revolution but broke
with those who consolidated power.[3]
A little less than two months later, then-president Mohammad Ali Rajaei was
killed in an explosion that ripped through the Prime Minister’s office.[4]
The blast also took the lives of the Prime Minister and a few Security Council
members. Interestingly, Rajaei himself took over from another President who had
to flee Iran dressed as a woman following an impeachment by the Islamic
Consultative Assembly.[5]
Even when high-ranking officials within the country are not assassinated, they
are forced to leave contention for the top seat of the Islamic republic. Such
was the case with Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri, who despite being named the
successor by Sayyid Ruhollah Khomeini (the then Supreme Leader), did not ascend
to the seat due his criticism of the mass executions following the Iran-Iraq
War.[6]
Ironically, Raisi, as a young prosecutor, signed off on those executions.
With President
Raisi’s death in the crash, there has been a tremendous amount of churn.
However, the churn is almost exclusively external. This is due to the fact that
the majority of the power vests with the Supreme Leader. Therefore, the more
pressing matter at hand for the Iranian regime is determining the successor of
the incumbent 85-year-old.
Prospects
The major concern about the
succession is that those most suited to the office of the Supreme Leader have
already been buried. Former president, Hashemi Rafsanjani, died under
mysterious circumstances in 2017[7]
and former judiciary chief Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi of natural causes in 2018[8].
Other
prospects include Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the current Supreme Leader, and
Alireza Arafi, a senior cleric. However, the progeny of Khamenei is lacking in
both the requisite experience and has albatross around his neck of being the
son of the incumbent. The latter flies directly in the face of a quote of the
first Supreme Leader which states the following[9]:
“Because the
Islamic Republic is critical of the hereditary system, and with the overthrow
of the monarchy, the hereditary formula, which is the least expensive method of
transfer in the East, cannot be implemented. Even when the children of the
referents sit in their father's place, it is emphasized because of their own
capabilities and most of the referents do not follow this procedure. The recent
statement of the leadership, based on the quote of Mr. Mohammadi-Iraqi, closes
this way to a great extent. If it is said very much and not absolute because it
was mentioned that the prohibition is in presence and for investigation and not
probably in absence or for example by recognizing expediency and in the form of
membership in the temporary council”.
Therefore, the accession of the son to replace the
father at the uppermost echelons of the Iranian regime is considered one step
away from heresy. Another wrinkle in the equation for succession is an idea
floated around by some in the media that the current Supreme Leader had
President Raisi assassinated in order to clear the path for his son’s
accession.[10]
Though the idea is somewhat incredible, it is still par for the course
considering the history of assassinations at the highest levels of governance
in Iran. Meanwhile, Arafi does not come without baggage
of his own as he lacks the black turban indicating descent from the family of
the Prophet Mohammad.
Adding to the
amount of flux in the selection of the next Supreme Leader is the variable of
the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). In an eventuality[11]
posited by Mehrangiz Kar, an attorney on human rights and women’s rights within
the framework of Islamic law in the Islamic Republic of Iran, The IRGC and the
Assembly of Experts, the 88-person body solely invested with the power to
appoint or dismiss the Supreme Leader, may introduce the candidate chosen by
Khamenei. The successor, in her hypothetical scenario, will be nothing more
than a puppet, and if in that timeframe there is a rebellion of large enough
proportions, the IRGC will seize the government and the clergy which has lost a
large population base in the last 45 years will be shunted to the
sidelines.
To sum up, the
death of the octogenarian Supreme Leader will result in a massive amount of
churn at the highest level of the Iranian Government. It would not be a
tremendous leap, judging by the history of ascendance, to assume that (more?)
blood will be shed.
Conclusion
As far as India is concerned, it
has various vested interests in Iran. Tehran is a crucial pivot in the
International North-South Transport Corridor and its enemy state Israel serves
the same purpose in the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor. Furthermore, the
Chabahar Port agreement was recently signed between the two countries.
Therefore, it is clear to both India and Iran that Tehran has an important role
to play in New Delhi’s connectivity calculus. For India, the question of who
ascends to the highest office in Iran upon the death of the current Supreme
Leader is a bigger concern than who gets elected to the second highest office.
Such is the case due to the nature of the Iranian polity which consolidates
nearly all the power in the Supreme Leader’s hands. As of now, the status quo
for allies and enemies of Iran is set to remain unchanged. However, when the 3rd
Supreme Leader assumes office, the status quo may change significantly. As far
as prognostication is concerned, due to the paucity of any solid information, it
is nigh on impossible to determine who succeeds Ayatollah Khamenei.
End Notes
[1] Akriti
Anand, Ebrahim Raisi 'assassinated'? Many suspect Israel's role behind the
Iranian President's death, officials clarify, Mint, 20/05/2024, Accessed on-
24/05/2024
[2] ‘It
wasn’t us’: Israel on Iran President Raisi’s chopper crash, Times of India,
20/05/2024, Accessed on- 24/05/2024
[3] 33
HIGH IRANIAN OFFICIALS DIE IN BOMBIMG AT PARTY MEETING; CHIEF JUDGE IS AMONG
VICTIMS, The New York Times, 29/06/1981, Accessed on- 24/05/2024
[4] Peter
Kihss, MOHAMMAD ALI RAJAI, IRAN'S PRESIDENT, The New York Times, 01/09/1981,
Accessed on- 24/05/2024
https://www.nytimes.com/1981/09/01/obituaries/mohammad-ali-rajai-iran-s-president.html
[5] KHOMEINI
STRIPS BANI-SADR OF OFFICE, LEAVING IRAN'S CLERGY IN FULL, The New York Times,
23/06/1981, Accessed on- 24/05/2024
[6] KHOMEINI
STRIPS BANI-SADR OF OFFICE, LEAVING IRAN'S CLERGY IN FULL, The New York Times,
23/06/1981, Accessed on- 24/05/2024
[7] Amy
La Porte, Former Iranian President Rafsanjani dies, 08/01/2017, Accessed on-
24/05/2024
https://edition.cnn.com/2017/01/08/middleeast/iran-former-president-rafsanjani-dies/index.html
[8] Grand
ayatollah Shahroudi, powerful Iran cleric, dies, The Times of Isreal, 25/12/2018, Accessed on- 24/05/2024
https://www.timesofisrael.com/grant-ayatollah-shahroudi-powerful-iran-cleric-dies/
[9]Leadership
Prevention and Difficulty of Expert Practice, Hammihano, 29/02/2002, Accessed
on- 24/05/2024
[10] Navid
Hamzavi, Explainer: How Does Raisi’s Death Impact Khamenei’s Succession?,
21/05/2024, Accessed on- 24/05/2024
[11] Opinion:
Who will replace Ali Khamenei?,BBC, 02/03/2024, Accessed on- 24/05/2024
https://www.bbc.com/persian/articles/cjrjx12dj91o
Vinayak Sharma is a holder of P.G. Diploma in Mass Communication from Bharatiya Vidya Bhavan and works as a research scholar at the United Service Institution
Article uploaded on 27-05-2024.
Disclaimer : The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of the organisation that he/she belongs to or of the USI of India.