Introduction
The sudden death
of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash has created a
succession crisis in Iran. This crisis has significant implications for the
country's domestic and foreign policies. Raisi's demise comes at a time when
Iran is facing numerous challenges. These challenges include a crippled economy
under American sanctions, growing discontent among its youth, and increasingly
hostile adversaries in the Middle East and beyond.
Current Political Landscape
Power has been
transferred to Vice President Mohammad Mokhber, who was appointed Acting
President by the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.[1]
The Islamic Republic is mandated by law to hold elections within the next 50
days, which are expected to be hastily organised and may result in poor voter
turnout. The legislative election in Mar had brought in mostly hardline
politicians, with the population losing faith in the belief that change can be
achieved through the ballot box. The last three elections in Iran have
witnessed low voter turnout, primarily due to the escalating impact of two
longstanding obstacles since the Islamic Revolution: the disqualification of
candidates deemed disloyal to the regime by the Guardian Council, and a
pervasive lack of transparency in the electoral process.
Immediate Impact of Raisi's Death
The succession
crisis in Iran is not limited to the presidency but also extends to the supreme
leadership, with Raisi's death paving the way for Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed
his father once he is gone. The regime's sudden focus on hastily planning for
an early election detracts from Tehran's bandwidth to address other pressing
issues, particularly in foreign policy, such as its confrontation with Israel.
The incident primarily inflicts a significant psychological and moral blow on
the regime, which is perceived as vulnerable and fragile.
The next President of Iran will be elected through a constitutional
process, with the Assembly of Experts tasked to select the next leader. Some
potential candidates for the Presidency include Hassan Rouhani, Hassan
Khomeini, Mohsen Araki, Alireza Arafi, Sadeq Larijani, and Mohammad-Mahdi
Mirbagheri. Es'haq Jahangiri, Vice President under Hassan Rouhani, has also
been mentioned as a possibility for the presidency. He has sought to distance
himself from Rouhani, saying that he was stripped of his power during Rouhani's
second term (2017-2021). This could boost Jahangiri's chance to survive vetting
by the Guardian Council. However, Jahangari lacks a strong base among ordinary
Iranians. Ahmad Khatami, a member of the Presidium of the Assembly of Experts,
is another powerful figure being mentioned. Like Raisi, Khatami is a hardliner
who has been placed on the European Union's sanctions list for "Inciting
Violence Against Protesters".[2]
As of 2024, the then-President Ebrahim Raisi and Khamenei's son
Mojtaba had been considered frontrunners for the position as the next Supreme
Leader.[3]
Raisi's death in a helicopter crash in May 2024 has now cut short his potential
candidacy. Raisi's death has also sparked questions regarding who will
eventually succeed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the most powerful man in the country
as the supreme leader. The Iranian clerical establishment had heavily invested
in Raisi as a potential successor to Khamenei. The Assembly of Experts,
responsible for selecting the successor to the Supreme Leader upon his death,
has become increasingly hardline over the years. Mojtaba Khamenei, the
incumbent Supreme Leader's son, is considered a leading candidate to succeed
him, but allowing him to replace his father could fuel theories that Raisi's
death was not accidental. Khamenei has said that the selection of his successor
must be guided by Islamic criteria and the needs of the country, rather than
personal or political considerations.
The death of President Raisi has complicated leadership succession
plans in Iran. The country has been thrust into an election season, and the
debate is on about whether the Islamic Republic is first and foremost an
Islamic state or a republic. Raisi's death is seen as a significant blow to the
Supreme Leader, and Khamenei has a few options, including introducing his son
to the Iranian people, finding another mini-me? or selecting a candidate from
the security forces.
Implications of the Succession Crisis
The death of
Iran's President has significant implications for the country's leadership
succession plans when Iran is facing severe challenges, including economic
problems, domestic alienation, and rising tensions with its regional arch-foe,
Israel. The incident will have significant implications for Iranian domestic
politics, although it is expected to have a much smaller impact on the foreign
policy of the theocratic regime.[4]
The implications of the succession crisis in could be far-reaching and complex.
Here are some of the key implications:
·
Succession Crisis. Raisi's death has created a power vacuum, and the question of who
will succeed him as President and potentially as the next Supreme Leader is
unclear.
·
Impact on Foreign Policy. The situation is not expected to significantly alter Iran's foreign
policy in the near term. The Supreme Leader and the Revolutionary Guards have
the final say in foreign policy decisions, which will likely remain unchanged.
·
Domestic Unrest. The death of Raisi, who was seen as a hardliner, may lead to
increased domestic unrest and protests, particularly among the youth population
who are discontent with the regime's policies.
·
Economic Crisis. Iran's economy is already crippled under American sanctions, and
Raisi's death may exacerbate the economic crisis, leading to further instability.
·
Regional Tensions. The succession crisis may impact Iran's regional policies,
particularly its relations with Israel, and may lead to a temporary delay in
new diplomatic initiatives.
·
Legitimacy Crisis. Raisi's death has exposed Iran's crisis of legitimacy, with many
Iranians questioning the regime's authority and legitimacy.
·
Power Struggle. The succession crisis may lead to a power struggle within the
regime, with different factions vying for control.
·
Impact on Nuclear Program. The crisis may impact Iran's nuclear program, particularly if the
new President is less supportive of the program.
·
Regional Influence. The succession crisis may impact Iran's influence in the region,
particularly if the new president is less effective in maintaining
relationships with proxy forces and allies.
·
Global Implications. The succession crisis in Iran has global implications, particularly
in terms of regional security and the potential for conflict with Israel and
other adversaries.
Implications for India and Response
The crisis also
poses diplomatic challenges for India, which has to balance its relationships
with both Iran and Israel. The succession crisis has sparked a high-stakes
power struggle in Iran, which may impact its economic and foreign policies. The
death of Raisi has presented the Islamic Republic with its most formidable and
dangerous challenge since its inception 45 years ago, with implications for the
country's economic woes and foreign policy. The international reaction to
Raisi's death highlights how relations with the Gulf have thawed, but the
balance of political power within Iran means that there is unlikely to be a
major shift in economic or foreign policy.
The present situation could also affect the North-South Transport
Corridor (NSTC), which is a vital project for India's involvement in the
region's connectivity plans. It is a significant project aimed at enhancing
regional connectivity and trade between South Asia, Central Asia, the Caucasus,
and Europe. The revival of the Chabhar project an important component of the
NSTC, signed on 13 May 2024, marks a significant milestone in the context of
regional connectivity. This project, aiming to connect the Iranian port with
Afghanistan and beyond to Central Asia, is crucial for India's involvement in
the region's connectivity plans. India's Foreign Minister, Dr S. Jaishankar,
has credited President Raisi and Foreign Minister Amir Abdollahian for their
role in finalising the Chabahar Port agreement and has expressed gratitude for
their ‘Interest’ and ‘Initiative’ in making the deal possible. This statement
is significant, as it acknowledges the importance of Iran in India's regional
strategy and underscores the need for continued engagement with Tehran. India's
response to the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi must be guided by a
careful consideration of its strategic interests in the region. The unexpected
demise of Raisi has cast an additional veil of uncertainty over an already
tumultuous region, and India must navigate this situation carefully to protect
its interests. India declared a day of national mourning to express solidarity
with the Iranian government and people, and the national flag was flown at
half-mast on all official buildings. This gesture is a mark of respect for the
departed dignitaries and a demonstration of India's commitment to maintaining
good relations with Iran. However, India must also be mindful of the
implications of Raisi's death on its relations with other countries in the region,
particularly Israel and the Gulf nations. The normalisation of relations
between Israel and the key Arab countries, facilitated by the Abraham Accords
of 2020, has created a new dynamic in the region, and India must be careful not
to be seen as taking sides. While expressing solidarity with the Iranian
government and people, India must also be mindful of the implications of
Raisi's death on its relations with other countries in the region and navigate
this situation carefully to protect its interests.
Conclusion
In conclusion,
the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi has created a dual succession
crisis in Iran, with implications for both the Presidency and the Supreme
Leadership. The country is expected to hold elections within the next 50 days,
which will could face impediments and result in reduced voter turnout. The
succession crisis comes at a time when Iran is facing numerous challenges
internally and externally. It could pave the way for Mojtaba Khamenei to become
the President and then succeed his father once he is gone. But that path is
still to be seen and could raise questions.
[1] Lyse Doucet, What next for Iran after President Raisi's death?,
BBC, 20/05/2024, Accessed on-24/05/2024
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1dd99jgl09o
[2] Saeed Azimi, Death of Iran’s President Complicates Leadership
Succession Plans, Stimson, 20/05/2024, Accessed on-24/05/2024
https://www.stimson.org/2024/death-of-irans-president-complicates-leadership-succession-plans/,
[3] Next Supreme Leader of Iran election, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Supreme_Leader_of_Iran_election
[4] Raisi’s Death Leads to Dual Succession Crises in Iran, 22/05/2024,
Accessed on- 24/05/2024
https://www.ifmat.org/05/22/raisis-death-leads-to-dual-succession-crises-in-iran/
Maj Gen Sanjeev Chowdhry (Retd) is a veteran with over 37 years of commissioned service. A graduate of the DSSC Wellington, and College of Defence Management during his career, the General officer has served in all types of terrain and environment while on command, staff, and instructional duties. He specialises in the subject of Net Assessment and is presently the Director Editorial at the USI.
Article uploaded on 27-05-2024
Disclaimer : The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of the organisation that he/she belongs to or of the USI of India.