Introduction
On 13 April, Iran launched
Operation True Promise, its response to Israel’s attack on its Consulate in
Syria on 01 April, which killed General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, the man
reportedly in charge of coordinating the Quds Force’s operations in the region,
his deputy and several other Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps members.
Tehran
fired a combination of more than 300 hundred drones and missiles at Israeli
military facilities. The attack was the first-ever direct strike launched
against Israel from Iranian territory. A
Rubicon has been crossed, at a time when the world is already consumed by two
ongoing conflicts and growing tensions in the South China Sea.
The
missile strikes were targeted, and calibrated and was a massive attack that was
aimed at overwhelming Israels missile defence system. It was more than mere signalling.
Many
analysts felt that there was an inevitability about Iran’s retaliation against Israel’s
strike in Damascus. But until the drones and missiles took off, it was not
clear whether they would convert a covert and indirect conflict by using
proxies into an overt and direct one.
But
as the details of Iran’s response and Israel’s success at countering it became
clear, most policymakers have expressed optimism that further escalation has
been avoided. But it is too soon to hope that the possibility that it may
explode into a wider conflagration has abated as both sides are still rattling
their sabres. Escalating blows which can lead to the United States (US) and
Russia getting drawn in remains a concern.
The Attack
While an Iranian retaliation
was expected but the scale at which it came was far greater than had been
imagined. Over 300 drones, ballistic missiles and cruise missiles launched from
multiple locations across Iran targeting Israeli military installations.[1]
With
US support aircraft and the Israeli air defences including the Iron Dome,
Davids Sling and the Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 systems were able to take on 99 per
cent of the projectiles, this figure was as per Daniel Hagari, an Israeli
military spokesman. The physical damage was limited and no fatalities were
reported.[2]
But
Iran also carried the attack out in a manner that exposed weaknesses in
sophisticated air defence systems, a large number of slow drones were followed
by dozens of ballistic missiles aimed at the Negev Desert followed by more
sophisticated missiles which then hit Netavim Air Base, home of the squadron
that carried out the Damascus strike but caused only light structural damage, overwhelming
the air defence system by forcing it to engage many low-grade rockets. But it
has proven that the missile defence system does work however it is said that
the costs of countering the incoming missiles was greater than the costs of the
missiles fired at Israel.[3] However, hardliners in
Israel demand retaliation.
While
General Bagheri the Iranian Chief of Staff stated that “Israel had crossed a
red line that was unbearable” by targeting the Iranian Consulate in Damascus
but after the attack “the mission is accomplished and the operation is over and
we have no intentions of going further”.[4] This statement was
tailored to tread a fine balance between projecting military strength and
avoiding retaliation from Israel. To quote CNN the ‘attack seemed choreographed
to minimise casualties while maximising spectacle’.[5]
Iran’s Use of Proxies
For years, Iran has sought
to fight Israel by providing arms and funding a collection of proxies that
includes Hezbollah, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. It also includes
Syria, Yemen’s Houthis, and paramilitary organizations in Iraq. These groups were
their means of countering Saudi Arabia, the US and the Islamic State of Iran
and Syria but since the start of the war in the Gaza Strip last October, these
proxies have helped operations against Israel.
While
the West felt that Iran had been contained and even isolated but, Iran
developed a strategy to empower proxy militias and to influence operations in
the region while maintaining plausible deniability. Another consistency of Iran
has been its support for the Palestinian cause and unwavering anti-Israel
stance.
In
response to Iranian proxies, Israel has targeted Iran in its own manner. It has
repeatedly carried out covert activity on Iranian soil, including operations
targeting nuclear facilities and scientists as well as conventional facilities
and its key Generals such as General Qasem Soleimani.
While
both sides were wary of letting their tit-for-tat attacks, get out of hand,
that delicate balance changed on 07 October following the Hamas attack on
Israel and the overwhelming force used by Israel in retaliation in Gaza.
Following this there has been a change in the way the Middle East has looked at
Israel and Iran’s proxies especially the Houthis who stepped up attacks against
Israel in a display of solidarity.
These
assaults have caused 186 casualties among US troops serving in the Middle East.
The Houthis, attacked ships in the Red Sea, causing transit through the Suez
Canal to fall drastically. According to Congressional testimony in Mar by General
Michael Kurilla, head of US Central Command, the escalation in strikes by
Iran’s allies and subsequent US military responses have emboldened terrorist
organizations not aligned with Iran, such as the ISIS.[6]
In
response, Israel attacked Iranian-backed groups in Lebanon and Syria, and then
Iranian military personnel themselves. Between early Dec and late Mar, Israel
killed nearly a dozen commanders and members of the IRGC which culminated in
the airstrike in Damascus.
For
years, Iran’s approach toward Israel and the US largely revolved around encouraging
proxy groups without resorting to direct provocative retaliations. The strategy
was based on networks Iran had built, which gave it the ability to engage
Israel without risking direct engagements, exacting costs while maintaining
plausible deniability. But Iran’s ‘strategic patience’ could no longer remain
elastic and be seen as a sign of weakness. Some observers feel that it was a
necessity as Iran’s prestige was involved though its aware of its weaknesses
and vulnerabilities.
But
this escalation towards confrontation has been building up over the past few
months. In January, Iran struck targets in Northern Iraq and Syria, claiming
they were linked to Israel and the Islamic State. They also attacked operating
bases of militants in Pakistan stating that they had struck Iran. Now, Iran has
attacked Israel. While the symbolism of the attack matters more than the damage
caused the ripples around the globe which include the rise in crude prices and
plunging of stock markets will resonate.
Conclusion
For India an Iran-Israel
confrontation is worse than that between Russia and Ukraine. This is because it
is much closer to us geographically, and both are countries with whom we have
close relations. India is part of the I2U2 with Israel and have defence ties
with them and our planned India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor goes
through Israel. With Iran we have an old civilisational relationship as they
were one of our largest suppliers of crude. The Chabahar Port is being
developed there and the North-South Transit Corridor runs through Iran. This
apart our major trade links run through the Red Sea and the Straits of Hormuz.
Our interests in this region are much deeper.
The
attacks by Iran demonstrated that they were willing to risk their own security
by confronting Israel directly with the potential of drawing the US into the
conflict.
The
attack has also shattered any hopes of a peace process and de-escalation of the
Israel Gaza conflict. At another level it has benefitted Israel as the US will
now be forced to pump more military hardware in their direction.
Now
that Israel has retaliated, with reports suggesting explosions being heard near
Isfahan international airport and an army base in Isfahan city, activating
local air defence systems. Iran too could climb up the escalation ladder. While
the region has not exploded on 13 April, but it is now teetering on the edge, the
risk of a wider and more dangerous conflict is stronger. While Iran and Israel
may see an opportunity in chaos but chaos can be threatening in many ways.
Calibrating risks has its limits.
Unfortunately,
to quote Bob Dylan, “We can’t speak too soon. For the wheel’s still in spin. There’s
a battle outside and it is raging. It’ll soon shake your windows and rattle
your walls”.
Endnotes
[1]
Al Jazeera. “Iran Attacks Israel with over 300 Drones, Missiles: What
You Need to Know.” Al Jazeera, April 15, 2024. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/4/14/iran-attacks-israel-with-over-300-drones-missiles-what-you-need-to-know.
[2] Brad Lendon,
“How Israel and allied defenses intercepted more than 300 Iranian missiles and
drones” CNN, April 14 2024 https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/14/middleeast/israel-air-missile-defense-iran-attack-intl-hnk-ml/index.html
[3] Sengupta, Arjun. “Cost and Benefit:
Israel’s Very Expensive Defence against Aerial Threats.” The Indian Express,
April 18, 2024. https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-sci-tech/iran-israel-missile-attack-cost-9278118/.
[4] Financial Times. “Iran Launches
‘Unprecedented’ Missile and Drone Attack on Israel,” n.d. https://www.ft.com/content/a5096429-5eb5-4d0f-8525-5e60c3b35448.
[5] Tamara Qiblawi, Iran’s attack seemed planned to minimize casualties while maximizing spectacle, CNN https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/14/middleeast/iran-israel-attack-drones-analysis-intl/index.html#:~:text=A%20decades%2Dlong%20shadow%20war,This%20was%20a%20complex%20mission.
[6] The Iran Primer. “CENTCOM’s Gen.
Michael Kurilla on Iran,” United States Institute of Peace, March 28,
2023. https://iranprimer.usip.org/blog/2022/apr/07/centcoms-maj-gen-michael-kurilla-iran.
Major General Jagatbir Singh, VSM (Retd) is a Distinguished Fellow at the USI of India. Commissioned in 1981 into the 18 Cavalry, he has held various important command and Staff appointments including command of an Armoured Division.
Article uploaded on 25-04-2024
Disclaimer: The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of the organisation that he belongs to or of the USI of India.