Introduction
In the enigmatic realm of geopolitical dynamics, the clash between Iran and the United States unfolds as a complex narrative. Within this intricate tapestry, a scenario quietly whispers, revealing itself amidst the tensions and intricacies of their interactions. This conflict, akin to a tempest brewing on the global stage, not only exposes the immediate circumstances but also unravels a web of potential repercussions that cast a shadow over the international landscape. In this delicate dance of nations, the unfolding scenario beckons us to explore the intricate interplay of forces and anticipate the far-reaching consequences that may shape the future course of global affairs.
Dr.
Mohsen Fakhrizadeh: A Snapshot of USA-Iran Indirect Conflict
Dr. Mohsen Fakhrizadeh often likened to Iran's Oppenheimer, is credited as the architect and driving force behind Iran's nuclear program. He played a pivotal role in advancing the program to its completion, overcoming persistent obstacles. Over a decade, he successfully enriched uranium to around 60 per cent, a crucial step toward potential weaponisation, with 90 per cent enrichment being the threshold for nuclear weapons. Fakhrizadeh exerted significant influence over Iran's nuclear pursuits, establishing connections in the black market to acquire essential project components. Additionally, his quest for knowledge led him to North Korea, where he sought insights from their nuclear program. Dr. Mohsen Fakhrizadeh orchestrated teams of young scientists working covertly to ensure the success of Iran's nuclear program. Due to his pivotal role, Fakhrizadeh became a prime target for Israel and the United States. Iran went to great lengths to conceal his identity, as Mossad, Israel's intelligence agency, repeatedly devised plans for his assassination on several occasions. Dr. Mohsen Fakhrizadeh and Iran were acutely aware of American and Israeli surveillance, prompting stringent security measures. His scrutiny extended to every aspect of daily life, from toothpaste to food, with the entire security team comprised of Iran Revolutionary Guards personnel, including his driver and bodyguards. Despite such precautions, Fakhrizadeh sought a semblance of normalcy, occasionally surprising his security detail by spontaneously visiting the Caspian Sea shore with his family. Engaging in the simple pleasures of life, he would recite poetic verses of Rumi to his children, sometimes without prior notice, causing momentary panic among his security guards. In the winter of 2020, on his way to the absard region of Iran for a family vacations, Dr. Mohsen Fakhrizadeh encountered a significant event. On his way with his family, Israeli intelligence, which had been surveilling him extensively, implemented a well-planned trap. This operation involved Artificial Intelligence connected to satellite technology, with a pickup truck equipped with a Belgium FN MAG and a robot system, underscoring the intricacy of the orchestrated event. Earlier, Dr. Mohsen Fakhrizadeh's security team had warned him about a potential security threat. However, accustomed to such alerts, he dismissed the caution. The attack unfolded swiftly, lasting about 20-30 seconds resulted in the tragic death of Dr. Fakhrizadeh, with one of his bodyguards sustaining injuries. Despite the guards' continuous firing, no assailant was visible, and eventually, the pickup truck carrying the weaponry exploded. Remarkably, the explosion did not fully destroy the robotic system, allowing the Iranians to uncover the entire orchestrated plan. In response to the attack, Iran declared its intent to seek revenge against Israel. However, despite the vow, Iran faced challenges in executing targeted killings within Israel. Dr. Mohsen Fakhrizadeh was accorded state honors in a ceremonial tribute preceding his funeral.
War
Between Iran and USA: Behind the Veil of Open Confrontation
The assassination of Dr. Mohsen Fakhrizadeh underscores the willingness of Israel and the United States to employ covert actions instead of engaging in open warfare against Iran. This approach mirrors Iran's support for proxy groups like Hezbollah. Notably, the US’ Tower 22 in Jordan, housing around 3,000 American military personnel, is situated approximately 22 km from another U.S. military base in Syria (Al-Tanf). The strategic significance of the Syrian base lies in preventing the reformation of Islamic State of Iraq and Syria fighters and, crucially, in monitoring the routes connecting Iran to Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. This surveillance aims to curtail and monitor military aid flowing from Iran to Hezbollah. Tower 22 holds strategic significance with dual objectives: serving as a logistical backup for the Al Tanf base in Syria and conducting surveillance on routes through which non-state actors may enter Iraq, Syria, and Jordan. The utilisation of drone footage for surveillance is a key component, with the gathered data transmitted to the Pentagon for in-depth analysis and strategic planning. The veracity of King Abdullah II's denial was exposed following a Hezbollah drone attack on Tower 22. The incident brought to light the presence of an American military base despite earlier official statements to the contrary. The attack exerted significant pressure on the American administration as it involved the killing of American engineers. The United States has employed economic measures, such as sanctions and discouragement of foreign investment from Western nations, as a means to counter Iran.
Prudent
Diplomacy: Direct Confrontation Between Iran and the USA
Iran's defence forces lack the sufficient capacity to directly confront the United States military. However, the considerable repercussions associated with such actions make it highly unlikely to occur. The initial consequence of such an action would involve the blockade of the Persian Gulf, a critical region responsible for exporting 25 per cent of the world's energy share. Nations including Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Oman, and Bahrain heavily rely on the Persian Gulf for the export of energy resources. The ensuing blockade would inevitably lead to an increase in oil prices and adversely impact the shipping industry. The second repercussion would involve potential attacks by Iranian forces on American military bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, UAE, and Oman. Iran has demonstrated its capability to target distant locations, while U.S. bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, UAE, and Oman are relatively close, approximately 100 kilometers from Iran. This proximity increases the vulnerability of these military installations to possible Iranian strikes. Iran may not possess the military strength to engage the US directly, but it can sustain a prolonged conflict due to its significant energy resources. Furthermore, a protracted conflict involving the US in the Middle East could solidify the perception that the U.S. is not a neutral mediator but rather aligns itself with specific adversaries in the region. This could prompt Middle Eastern and global South countries to consider forming their military alliances. Such an alliance might advocate for a doctrine of non-interference by external powers, resembling the Monroe Doctrine in the Americas, asserting regional autonomy and sovereignty.
Conclusion
In the intricate
narrative of the Iran-USA conflict, the quiet storm of covert actions and
geopolitical complexities unfolds. The targeted assassination of Dr. Mohsen
Fakhrizadeh exemplifies the preference for covert measures over open warfare.
Amidst the intricate dance of nations, the USA's
strategic presence in the Middle East, epitomised
by bases like Tower 22, reflects the delicate balance of power and
surveillance. Confrontation between Iran and the USA remains improbable, given
Iran's limited military capacity, but the potential repercussions, from a
blocked Persian Gulf to attacks on military bases, underscore the high stakes
involved. In this scenario, diplomacy emerges as the prudent path, urging a
cautious approach to navigating the intricate web of global affairs.
Article uploaded on 26-02-2024
Disclaimer: The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of the organisation that he belongs to or of the USI of India. .