The War Expands
South: Humanitarian Crisis Deepens
As intense fighting spreads to Southern Gaza,
the people of Gaza having being told to evacuate find themselves in deeper
crisis, as there is no safe place to go. The truce collapsed on 01 December 2023, with
both sides blaming each other for it. Israeli military launches operations in
Khan Younis, Gaza's second largest city, declaring it as combat zone, calling
it "The most intense day
since the beginning of the ground operation", besides continuing strikes
on northern Gaza. Hamas too is responding with rocket fire on border cities of
Israel to register its existence. Caught in crossfire, it’s a distressing news
for hostages and civilians of one of the most populated region of the world,
blockaded in a landmass, left with no safe zones.
Although, most rational voices condemn the
brutal, barbaric, terror attack by Hamas on 07 October 23, and felt Israeli’s
actions against Hamas was justified, but the scale, cost and methodology of
Israeli response, causing fourteen times more Palestinian civilian casualties (approximately
over 16000 in comparison to over 1200 Israelis killed so far) and large scale
forced displacement of people has invited global criticism including its
closest ally United States, for violation of the International Humanitarian Law.The violence and casualties in West
Bank are complicating the situation further.
Despite
Israel Defence Forces (IDF) maintaining that “It doesn’t target civilians”,
reports of mounting casualties concerns everyone, including
its closest ally USA, which expects Israel to do more to protect civilians in
pursuance of its legitimate military
objectives in Gaza. After US announced new visa
ban on Israeli settlers involved in violence against Palestinians in the West
Bank, Israel responded with assurance of being open to "Constructive
feedback" from the US and the United Nations, without altering the pace
and methodology of its operations.
Opposing
Strategies and Outcomes
As
per PM Netanyahu the Israeli objective in this war is to liquidate Hamas
completely, ensure that its citizens are never again threatened by an attack
from Gaza and ensure the release of hostages. He thinks that it can be done by
military action and has pulled back Israeli team from ongoing negotiations in
Qatar.
The force level used and the scale of
destruction being caused indicates that his undeclared aim is to make Gaza
unhabitable and force Palestinians out of Gaza, as its extremely difficult to
identify Hamas in such heavy population density of Palestinians and selectively
destroy them. To minimise own casualties, IDF has chosen the strategy of mass
destruction and pulverising targets/buildings alleged as hideouts by standoff
attacks, avoiding hand to hand fighting in built up area.
The strategy of Hamas on 07 October
was to pick up maximum hostages to be used as bargaining chip, embarrass Israel
and provoke it beyond limits to respond disproportionately, causing heavy
casualties to innocent Palestinians in Gaza, to put the Palestinian issue from
the back burner to forefront, besides inviting global criticism of Israel for
human right violations, which seems to have been achieved.
Hamas also expected favourable
reaction in their support from Arab countries, radical Islamic countries and
organisations to drive a wedge in relationship of some Arab countries, and
others, getting closer to Israel. This has not been fully achieved as Arab
countries have voiced in favour of Palestinians (not Hamas, in context of its
brutal assault violating human rights) and have not intervened beyond
diplomatic and moral support.
In terms of outcome, Israel had
finished the war in six days in 1967, Yom Kippur war in 19 days, but against
Hamas, the war is nearing two months and the obliteration of Hamas is nowhere
in sight. Despite Israel’s efforts to eliminate Hamas, the group seems to have
survived initial onslaught, with only about 5,000 Hamas fighters killed in the conflict out of 30,000
soldiers of its military wing. Total elimination of Hamas is overambitious
because its an ideology, brewed out of subjugation of population confined into
bounds of Gaza, with airspace, maritime space, six exit points and inflow of
essential services controlled by Israel.
With growing hatred towards Israel due
to unprecedented casualties, the ideology is unlikely to die down. Moreover,
many Hamas leaders are outside Gaza, away from striking distance of Israel;
hence, will survive even after the destruction of Gaza to annihilate Hamas.
While Israel may be able to comb Gaza to reduce striking capability of Hamas,
in the long term it will make itself and its people more insecure to terror
attacks within and outside Israel,
as the US Defence Secretary rightly warns Israel that failure to protect
Palestinian civilians could lead to ‘strategic defeat’.
Who will
Control Gaza after War?
While
Israel is planning to have a buffer zone or a security envelope along Gaza
border, inside Gaza to prevent Hamas being positioned on the border, but it may
not be easy as world opinion is shifting against Israel and getting inclined
towards the two-state solution.
Even Israel’s closest ally USA is
insisting on the two state solution, which has laid down five principles for
the future of Gaza, as its Vice President said “No forcible displacement of the
Palestinian people,
no reoccupation of Gaza, no siege or blockade, no reduction in territory, and
no use of Gaza as a platform for terrorism”.
The idea of Gaza to be ruled by Palestinian Authority (PA) has its own drawbacks due to lack of credibility of PA leaders, who haven’t had elections after 2005, and they do not represent the people of Gaza. Governance under UN stabilisation Mission till elections are held could be an option, but will Israel agree to completely vacate Gaza remains a question? With an angry population, the Israeli occupation of Gaza will be marred by risk of frequent insurgent attacks.
The Future of Two State Solution?
While Israel
and Palestinians both have legitimate right to live, have a homeland, govern
and defend themselves, but lack of accommodation of these rights within the
boundaries of Israel, West Bank and Gaza Strip remains problematic leading to
bloodshed for decades. Every peace propagator including the US is talking of
two state solution, but the problem is how to divide that landmass into two
states, as both sides want East Jerusalem, because Palestinians can’t
compromise on al-Aqsa Mosque (Third holiest shrine for Islam) and Jews can’t
compromise on Temple Mount or Western Wall (the holiest site in Judaism).
The complexities of Palestinian enclaves embedded by Israeli settlements in the West Bank and their continued encroachment, makes it impractical for anyone of them to vacate their enclaves, complicating the situation further.
Way Ahead
The
strong support demonstrated by USA to Israel in the initial stages has not
allowed direct involvement of any other country into Israel-Hamas war, although
groups like Hezbollah and Houthis did show some support with standoff attacks.
The Arab countries have expressed
support for Hamas, condemned Israel for violating International Humanitarian
laws and excessive civilian casualties, but no one has directly entered the
conflict. Considering the responses so far, it appears that this conflict may
not expand into larger regional conflict.
This conflict has further divided the
global power blocks with USA and Israel getting increasingly isolated. Most of
the world and UN is raising concerns for Palestinian cause and unprecedented
casualties and USA seems to be doing damage control internally and externally,
short of stopping Israeli offensive. The number of women and children killed in
less than two months has exceeded two years of Russia Ukraine War, which
violates self-defence logic.
The war may end with Israel’s combing
operations over destroyed Gaza, claimed as victory by Israel. It may work as
face saver for Israeli Government, but Israel can neither hope to be safe nor
peaceful in the long term. In counter terror operations, people are centre of gravity.
The next generation of Hamas will arise, with a frustrated populace demanding
revenge. Until a two states solution that is acceptable to both parties is
reached, the Israel-Palestine conflict will persist, albeit in an active
insurgent form, for an extended period of time.
Major General
(Dr) S B Asthana is
an international strategic and military analyst with over 450 publications and is well versed with the
area of conflict, as former UN Peacekeeper. He is a veteran Infantry General with 40 years’ experience in
national & international fields and UN.. He has been interviewed by various
National and International news channels/newspapers/organisations. Currently,
he is Chief Instructor, USI of India, the oldest Indian Think-tank in India. And
is on the Board/Governing Council CEE, IOED, IPC, ITVMNN and other UN
Organisations; on the Advisory Board of SWEDINT, member EPON.
Article uploaded on 12-7-2023
Disclaimer : The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of the organisation that he/she belongs to or of the USI of India.