Abstract
India has made
significant strides in acquiring, testing, and deploying Ballistic Missile
Defence (BMD) systems. This strategic endeavour, prompted by the ballistic
missile threat posed by neighbouring countries, has culminated in a
double-layered BMD shield, which, coupled with other defence assets, safeguards
Indian airspace. India’s BMD program has showcased technological advancements
and self-reliance and ambitions to develop laser-based interception technology,
albeit over an extended timeline. The program’s prospects are promising,
offering India strategic autonomy, flexibility in countering diverse missile
threats, and potential collaboration with partner nations. Resource allocation
and technological adaptation are crucial concerns, necessitating careful
planning, coordination, and integration within the existing military
infrastructure.
Introduction
Ballistic Missile
Defence (BMD) capabilities are essential in modern warfare as they can
destroy/intercept incoming hostile aerial targets, like drones, fighter jets,
and ballistic and cruise missiles (which can carry conventional and
potentially, nuclear warheads). Ballistic missiles can deliver tons of
conventional and non-conventional warheads directly to the enemy territory, at
high speeds and within minutes. Therefore, having such missiles and their
countermeasures in the national defence arsenal forms an important part of
deterrence. While nuclear weapons and their delivery platforms serve the
purpose of deterrence, BMD capabilities serve the purpose of self-defence and
maintaining a balance of power. BMD systems are thus, essential to defend the
national territory and important locations from incoming enemy aerial attacks.
India’s journey in aerospace started
with the establishment of the Indian space
research organisation in 1969, through which Indians gained experience
in rocket development and satellite launches. This helped India develop its own
launch vehicles and rocket engine technologies. It was followed by a successful
nuclear test in 1974, followed by another test in 1998, that helped India
develop nuclear weapons.
It was against this backdrop that India
decided to pursue an indigenous missile development program which was
officially announced in the year 1983.1 Through this program, India successfully developed
and deployed various cruise missiles, ballistic missiles and defensive weapons
like Surface-to-Air Missiles (SAM).
Fast forward to more than a decade
later, India’s strategic rivals, China and Pakistan had developed their own
nuclear and missile programs. Thus, it became imperative for India to now
develop its own BMD capabilities to safeguard its territory against potential
incoming enemy missiles and other aerial threats.
In the year 2000, the then Indian
government under Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, sanctioned the
development of India’s BMD program.2 In
2002, the United States (US) put diplomatic pressure on Israel which prevented
the latter from selling its Arrow air-defence missile system to India. The
American officials argued that the sale was violative of the Missile Technology
Control Regime (MTCR) guidelines.3
This boosted the political resolve in
India to develop a fully indigenous BMD capability. By 2009 India had developed
its short-range air-defence missile system that was named Akash,
deployed by the Indian Air Force.
Introduced in light of the ballistic
missile threat from Pakistan and the People’s Republic of China (PRC), India’s
BMD was planned as a double layered system consisting of land and sea-based
interceptor missiles: the first layer named ‘Prithvi Air Defence’ (PAD) and the
second layer named ‘Advanced Air Defence’ (AAD). The PAD is used for
high-altitude interception and the AAD takes care of low-altitude
interceptions. Both layers are supported by a range of tracking stations,
radars, command and control posts etc. As on date only five countries have such
BMD systems: US, Russia, China, Israel and India. India has achieved a good
amount of self-reliance in BMD by developing and testing missiles like the
Prithvi, Akash, Long Range SAM, Quick Reaction-SAM (QR SAM) and Medium
Range-SAM (MR SAM) among others. These interceptor missiles, their related
infrastructure and other assets form the basis of India’s BMD program. India
has also established a nuclear triad: land, air and sea based nuclear weapon
delivery capabilities.
Thus, the acquisition of a
well-developed BMD system complements the nuclear triad and has established
India as a force to be reckoned with globally.
Capabilities
and Current Status of India’s BMD Program
India’s
BMD shield is basically a two-layered system that takes care of incoming
hostile enemy aerial targets from a range of around 30 km till around 5,000 km.
In case of incoming ballistic missiles, this activity of interception can be
conducted in any one of the three stages of the enemy missile’s launch
trajectory:
n In the ‘boost phase’, when the hostile
missile is climbing up in the atmosphere.
n In the ballistic or ‘mid-course’ phase,
during the main flight path of the missile.
n In the ‘terminal phase’, when the hostile
missile has re-entered the earth’s atmosphere, and is closing in on its
targets.
India has the BMD systems needed to
destroy incoming hostile missiles in the mid-course and the terminal
phase. Indian scientists are working to
further develop these systems to destroy the hostile missiles during the boost
phase itself that requires long-range interception, tracking and sophisticated
advanced warning capabilities The land-based BMD systems have been fully
developed locally and tested multiple times over the last 20 years. The
sea-based system testing happened in Apr 2023, with all parameters successfully
met.4 The double layered BMD shield is elaborated as
under:
n The First Layer. The first layer of
the Indian BMD shield is the land based Prithvi Air Defence System. This system
is developed to destroy incoming enemy missiles at high altitude ranges.
Various publicly available sources mention that the altitudinal range is around
50 to 80 km. India has plans to extend the PAD capabilities beyond 180 km
altitude. This will be a significant boost for India to help it counter
potential incoming missiles from the Chinese mainland. This system can destroy
enemy missiles outside the earth’s atmosphere, which is known as an ‘exo-atmospheric
kill’.
n The Second Layer. The second layer
of the Indian BMD system is the AAD, developed for lower altitude interception:
up to 15 to 50 km. The AAD can intercept enemy missiles within the earth’s
atmosphere, which is known as an ‘endo-atmospheric kill’. Since this second
phase is under further development, not many details are available about it in
the open domain. India is now working to make the PAD as well as the AAD
capable of endo-atmospheric and exo-atmospheric kills. The latest development
in the Phase 2 BMD was the successful test of a sea-launched interceptor
missile, conducted by the Indian Navy and the Defence Research and Development
Organisation (DRDO), on 23 Apr 2023. With this test, India has once again
become a part of an elite group that has sea-based BMD capabilities.
Achieving
Comprehensive Ballistic Missile Defence
Both
these layers are complemented by other systems like ships, sensors, aircrafts,
radars, tracking stations, and satellite support. Thus, this forms a complex
web of hundreds of systems, which are a part of the bigger web called ‘BMD
shield’ that protects the Indian airspace.
As far as tracking of targets is
concerned, India has a range of different ships, aircrafts, satellites and
tracking stations, providing timely information about hostile activities to the
command-and-control centres. India also has a dedicated missile tracking ship
named INS Dhruv developed by the DRDO.5 It is jointly operated by the Indian Navy, the
national technical research
organisation and the DRDO. As of
date only five countries have such ships: US, Russia, France, China and India.
India also uses the Swordfish radar to
track aerial targets, direct the line of fire and guide support the interceptor
missiles. In 2017, an upgraded version of this radar, named as Super Swordfish,
was developed, and put to use.6 This radar can track targets up to a
range of 1,500 km. The interceptor missiles also have their own inertial
navigation systems.
As per the author’s analysis, India’s BMD
system is fully integrated. It was officially ready to deploy as of 2020 and
concerned agencies have started further developments on the second layer of the
BMD. However, the armed forces and other agencies are waiting for the union
government to issue official orders to deploy the PAD system since 2020.7 Reports say that once the government
approves, it will take around three to four years to fully deploy the system,
which will then have to be tested as a single comprehensive unit.8
Scientists are also working towards
making interceptors used in both layers operate on solid fuels. This is because
chemicals in the liquid fuels corrode the fuel storage tanks easily. Therefore,
most of the missiles are not kept in a ‘ready-to-fire’ mode. Also, it takes a minimum
of three to four hours to fill the liquid fuel in the missile,9 a hardly acceptable scenario wherein precious
time will be lost in case of an emergency. The capability to have the entire
missile run on solid fuels has been achieved for the first layer of the BMD,
wherein a modified version of the PAD has been created, which is named as the
Prithvi Defence Vehicle (PDV). This missile has a three-stage engine, working
on solid fuels, and has been successfully tested. The PDV will be capable of
destroying missiles beyond 180 km altitude. These initiatives have got more
credibility after India successfully conducted its maiden anti-satellite test,
in 2019.
An advanced version of the PDV, named as
PDV Mark 2, is also ready for production. As niche technologies, it may take
around 20 years to be developed, tested and implemented. To complement the BMD
program, India has other capable systems like Akash, SPYDER, MR-SAM, QR-SAM
etc. These have been successfully tested multiple times and have been deployed across
India.
Media reports indicated in Jul 2023 that
the Ministry of Defence is at an advanced stage of clearing a proposal
regarding a three-layered BMD system.10 This long-range SAM system is
expected to have a range of 400 km. The project will be totally indigenous and
is expected to cost around USD 2.5 bn. Presumably, this project is being
created in a way that the new systems will be in the class of the S-400 missile
defence systems. Since the PRC has also procured these missiles, India would
want to negate China’s edge, by relying on not just the S-400, but also
alternative options. The Indian Air Force is reportedly the lead agency for
this project, as it has been insisting on promoting indigenisation in this
domain.11
Prospects
for India’s BMD Program
Such
an extensive and full-fledged BMD program has many prospects for further growth
and development:
n Strategic Autonomy.
g India has been investing in developing
advanced technologies for its BMD program, including interceptor missiles,
radar systems, and command and control infrastructure. These have been made
indigenously for the most part, thereby making India capable and self-reliant
technologically. Continued testing and validation are then essential to improve
the reliability and effectiveness of the BMD system.
g Prospects here include successful testing
of the interceptors under different scenarios, leading to a higher confidence
level in the system’s performance. The technological advancements could further
lead to improved interception capabilities and enhanced performance of the BMD
system. It will also help increase the range, accuracy and other parameters
thus including a wider geographical area. This in itself has its own
consequences for the regional and global balance of power.
g From a geopolitical perspective, this BMD
initiative also indirectly benefits from India’s close cooperation with foreign
countries like the US and Israel, and from it being a part of globally
influential bodies like the MTCR, which gives the country access to high-end
technology.
n Flexibility.
g India’s BMD program aims to establish a
multi-layered defence by integrating different types of interceptors and
systems. This provides increased flexibility in countering various types of
ballistic missiles. India has also engaged in defence cooperation with various
countries, which could potentially lead to knowledge-sharing, joint
development, and collaborative research in the field of BMD.
g India can also look forward to helping its
immediate neighbours by using its BMD capabilities to safeguard their
airspaces, as these nations do not have the resources to pursue their own BMD
programs. Further, India can look forward to exporting some of its BMD
components like interceptors, radars, and short and medium range SAM systems to
friendly foreign countries.
n Strategic Deterrence. A robust BMD
program can enhance strategic deterrence by demonstrating the country’s ability
to defend against potential missile threats. This could influence adversaries’
perceptions of India’s defence capabilities and potentially impact their
strategic calculations.
Challenges
to India’s BMD Program
The
Indian BMD program does face some challenges, internally as well as externally,
which impact its planning, deployment and usage:
n Pakistan
g India had been preparing for a two-front
war scenario for many years because it faces a ballistic missile threat,
directly from both Pakistan and the PRC. While Pakistan’s missile and nuclear
program is India-centric, India has developed its nuclear, missiles and BMD
capabilities keeping in mind the Chinese threat.
g On the level of scale, Pakistan has a
range of tactical missiles like Hatf-1 and ballistic missiles like Ghaznavi,
Babur, Abdali, Shaheen, Nasr etc. These missiles can strike up to a range of
3,000 km, a range that covers the entire Indian territory.12 Pakistan is now working to develop the
Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicle (MIRV) technology,13 which enables a single ballistic
missile to release multiple warheads on the enemy, simultaneously. Accordingly,
this requires the defending entity to fire at least two interceptor missiles,
separately, for every warhead released by the incoming hostile missile. Media
reports in 2017 indicated that Pakistan has already developed and tested the
MIRV technology on its newly developed Ababeel ballistic missile.14
n China. A bigger concern than
Pakistan is the PRC which is known to have a well-developed nuclear program,
ballistic missile program and a fully deployed BMD system. It is also known
that Pakistan and the PRC have good collaborations and share military
technologies with each other, since India is the common adversary for both. The
PRC seeks to compete with the US, in almost every domain, at the global level,
and has developed its armed forces and arsenal accordingly. Its ballistic
missiles have a range of more than 12,000 km and the PRC also possesses
anti-satellite capabilities.15 Having
a strong economy and a huge manufacturing base enables the Chinese to stay
ahead of India in all domains, quantitatively as well as qualitatively. In the
MIRV domain, the PRC has capabilities comparable to those of US and Russia. A
major concern for India here is that the PRC may proliferate these technologies
to rogue states like Pakistan thereby negating India’s conventional advantage
over Pakistan.
n Cost and Resources. Overcoming
technical challenges related to sensors, interceptors, command and control
systems, and integration can be daunting. This exercise is also financially
demanding. Securing adequate funding and allocating resources for research,
development, testing, and deployment has always been a significant challenge in
India, where most of the annual defence budget is spent on revenue expenditure.
India may have to hunt for export markets for some of its air-defence systems
to cover the production costs, which will inevitably put India in conflict with
existing market players, such as the Patriot, Terminal High Altitude Area
Defence and Iron Dome. Thus, India will have to balance its security and
geopolitical interests accordingly.
n Adaptation and Evolution. Ensuring
that the various components of the BMD system can work together seamlessly and
coordinate with the existing defence infrastructure can be complex. India will
have to eliminate the duplication and mixture of assets and follow standardised
methods and protocols. The human error factor must also be considered while
training the concerned staff. With the dawn of technologies like quantum
computing and artificial intelligence, integrating them in the national
security infrastructure will be a bigger challenge for India. Integrating the
BMD capabilities with the existing military infrastructure requires careful
planning to ensure smooth coordination and functioning during real-world
scenarios. Also, as missile technology evolves, potential adversaries may
develop more advanced and unpredictable missiles. India’s BMD program must stay
ahead of these developments to remain effective. Rigorous testing and
validation of BMD systems are thus crucial to ensure their reliability.
Conclusion
In
its entirety, BMD is a very nuanced subject. Most of the data on this topic is
classified. Therefore, all capabilities of such systems, available in the
public domain are just projections, as countries do not share the actual capabilities
of such sensitive technologies, and therefore all analysis is speculative.
However, the capability of a nation to
possess these systems and demonstrate its abilities through continuous testing
is necessary to have an edge over its adversaries. What is now needed for
countries like India is to keep evolving their BMD systems qualitatively by
heavily investing in research and development. By producing a sufficient number
of these systems, economies of scale can be achieved in the long run, thus bringing
down development costs.
In
conclusion, India’s evolving BMD program underscores the significance of
continuous research and development to maintain a technological edge in
contemporary warfare. While specific capabilities remain classified, India’s commitment
to enhancing its BMD systems contributes to self-reliance in its national
defence as well as regional security and reinforces its position as a
formidable force in the international arena.
Endnotes
1 “Integrated Guided Missile Development
Programme (IGMDP) - BrahMos.Com”, BrahMos Aerospace, Accessed September 26,
2023, https://www.brahmos.com/content.php?id=10&sid=25.
2
Ashley J. Tellis, “The Evolution of U.S.-Indian Ties: Missile Defense in
an Emerging Strategic Relationship”, International Security, Vol. 30, No. 4
(Spring, 2006), pp. 113-151, https://www.jstor.org/stable/4137531.
3 Chidanand
Rajghatta, “US Blocks Israeli Arms Sales to India”, Times of India,
January 15, 2022, https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/us-blocks-israeli-arms-sales-to-india/articleshow/336217146.cms.
4 Yagya Sharma, “India Successfully Tests
Sea-Based Ballistic Missile Interceptor, Joins Elite Club”, Hindustan Times,
April 22, 2023, https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/drdo-indian-navy-test-odisha-india-successfully-tests-sea-based-ballistic-missile-interceptor-joins-elite-club-101682168564539.html.
5 Joydeep Bose, “INS Dhruv: India Gets Its First
Nuclear Missile Tracking Ship Today”, Hindustan Times, September 10, 2021, https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/ins-dhruv-india-gets-its-first-nuclear-missile-tracking-ship-today-details-here-101631233967587.html.
6 Shantanu K. Bansal, “India Deploys Israeli
EL/M-2090 Radar on the Western Front”, IADN, January 07, 2023, https://iadnews.in/covering-whole-pakistan-india-deploys-israeli-el-m-2090-radar-on-western-front/.
7 Snehesh Alex Philip, “India’s ballistic
missile shield ready, IAF & DRDO to seek govt nod to protect Delhi”, The
Print, January 08, 2020, https://theprint.in/defence/indias-ballistic-missile-shield-ready-iaf-drdo-to-seek-govt-nod-to-protect-delhi/345853/.
8 Ibid.
9 Interview with a former officer of the
Strategic Forces Command, March 15, 2023.
10 “India Developing Its Own 400 Km Class
Long-Range, Surface-to-Air Missile Air Defence System”, ANI, July 26, 2023,
https://www.aninews.in/news/national/general-news/india-developing-its-own-400-km-class-long-range-surface-to-air-missile-air-defence-system20230726133626/.
11 Ibid.
12 “Missiles of Pakistan | Missile Threat”, CSIS
Missile Threat Project, last updated June 30, 2023,
https://missilethreat.csis.org/country/pakistan/.
13 Ibid.
14 Ibid.
15 “Missiles of China | Missile Threat”, CSIS
Missile Threat Project, last updated June 30, 2023, https://missilethreat.csis.org/country/china/.
@Wankhede
Rahul Bhojraj is an Inner Engineering Ambassador at Isha
Foundation. He has been an Assistant Professor at Dr. Babasaheb Ambedkar
Studies Dept., Savitribai Phule Pune University, a Yoga Veera Volunteer at Isha
Foundation, a Research Associate, JK Policy Institute, Srinagar, and a subject
matter expert of History, Internal Relations and Political Science at Bartleby
Technologies. He has a PhD from JNU
Special Centre for National Security Studies and a post-graduation in Defence
& Strategic Studies Centre for Security Studies from Central University of
Gujarat School of National Security Studies.
Journal
of the United Service Institution of India,
Vol. CLIII, No. 634, October-December 2023.