On 9 November 2023, the Centre for Strategic Studies and
Simulation (CS3), United Service Institution (USI) of India organised a Round
Table Discussion (RTD) with Centre for Naval Analyses (CNA), Washington DC
on the topics ‘Possibility of QUAD into Military Partnership: Implications’ and
‘Nuclear Risk Management in Indo-Pacific’. Serving and retired military
officers, CNA members and Research scholars attended the discussion.
Maj Gen RPS Bhadauria, VSM (Retd), Director CS3 delivered the Welcome Remarks. The first session delved into the ‘Possibility of QUAD into Military Partnership: Implications’, and the speakers were Vice Adm AB Singh, PVSM, AVSM, VSM (Retd) and Mr. Robert N Hein, Director of Plans and Policy for Cdr U.S. Pacific Fleet (COMPACFLT N5). The session was followed by an interactive questions and answers session. The second session delved into the ‘Nuclear Risk Management in Indo-Pacific’, and speakers for this session were Dr. Roshan Khanijo, Assistant Director (Research), CS3, and Mr. Robert N Hein. The session was followed by discussions. Finally, the closing remarks were given by Maj Gen RPS Bhadauria and Dr Satu Limaye, Sr Advisor in China & Indo-Pacific Security Affairs Division.
Group Photo
Key Takeaways
· The discussion on ‘Possibility of QUAD
into Military Partnership: Implications’ emphasised the likelihood of expanding
QUAD’s capabilities and influence given Chinese advances in military
capabilities and technology.
· Emphasising China’s
geographic location and advantages, the discussion underscored how the
adversary is taking advantage of small neighbouring nations, and a fractured
ASEAN to reaffirm its contested territorial claims.
· Highlighted the
significance of regional support to facilitate a swift reaction to Chinese aggression
and making partnerships with nations in the Indo-Pacific region and South China
Sea crucial. In this capacity, the discussion highlighted the need for robust
regional cooperation and support.
· As a multilateral
grouping, QUAD serves to primarily mitigate non-kinetic security threats from
China. The QUAD nations’ partnership, its posturing and military assets send a
strong deterrent signal.
· QUAD needs to formalise
itself with an organisational structure and a secretariat to fortify its
presence in the region.
· Partnerships between
the US and India become essential and agreements like LEMOA, COMCASA, GSOMIA and
BECA needs to be taken to an operational level.
· It is also central to explore and fast-track information-sharing in the underwater domain, specifically with regards to submarine detection technology and information sharing mechanisms for ships crossing international waters.
Indian Panellists
Indian Panellists
· The second session discussion focused on “Nuclear
Risk Management in Indo-Pacific” and emphasised the role of various nuclear
powers in the region and emerging trends in nuclear threats in Asia.
· The current Asian nuclear environment is embodied by
possible conflict in the Korean peninsula, the escalation of tensions leading
to conflict at Taiwan strait and China’s nuclear modernisation.
· North Korea is building a formidable nuclear
arsenal and the warfighting capability is now designed to evade regional
ballistic missile defences. SRBMs demonstrates better mobility, potency, and
precision and focused on “miniaturisation of weapons” for tactical use. They
are also developing ICBMS with MIRVs and SLBMs.
· South
Korea is sharpening the response
options with launching five surveillance satellites. There is a debate
regarding developing nuclear capability as many have concerns about the
feasibility of nuclear umbrella of the US.
· Japan is developing counterstrike capabilities
that leverage stand-off defence capability. Japan is developing Intermediate
Range Missile on all three platforms and are buying 400 American Tomahawk
cruise missiles
·
China
is modernising its nuclear inventory
both qualitatively as well as quantitatively and the newer version of missiles
use lower-yield warhead and are precision guided missiles.
· They
have launch-on warning capabilities, have developed air launched ballistic
missile as well as strategic bombers and the newer nuclear submarines are quieter with enhanced ranges for their
SLBMs.
· Advances in niche and disruptive technologies will
intensify competition.
·
There is lowering of Nuclear Thresholds due to use
of low yield Tactical Nuclear Weapons both by North Korea and Pakistan
·
IOR is
the newly expanded theatre of power competition and the overt nuclearisation of
Indian Ocean does not bode well for the prospects of regional stability as
major stakeholders have opted for a strategic path to increase their footprint
in the region.
·
Most
Nuclear Weapon State’s undergoing Nuclear Force Modernisation due to
technological upgradation leading to Arms Race and a challenge to Nuclear
Disarmament.
·
One
needs to have strategic dialogue with transparent postures to avoid
miscalculation.
·
Regular
CBMs for crisis management and open hotlines for better communication.
·
Instead
of dyadic treaties there should be more trilateral/multilateral
nuclear negotiations with better representations from nuclear power states.
Report by Tavishi Sharma, Research Intern,
CS3-USI