On 9 November 2023, the Centre for Strategic Studies and Simulation (CS3), United Service Institution (USI) of India organised a Round Table Discussion (RTD) with Centre for Naval Analyses (CNA), Washington DC on the topics ‘Possibility of QUAD into Military Partnership: Implications’ and ‘Nuclear Risk Management in Indo-Pacific’. Serving and retired military officers, CNA members and Research scholars attended the discussion.

Maj Gen RPS Bhadauria, VSM (Retd), Director CS3 delivered the Welcome Remarks. The first session delved into the ‘Possibility of QUAD into Military Partnership: Implications’,  and the speakers were Vice Adm AB Singh, PVSM, AVSM, VSM (Retd) and Mr. Robert N Hein, Director of Plans and Policy for Cdr U.S. Pacific Fleet (COMPACFLT N5). The session was followed by an interactive questions and answers session. The second session delved into the ‘Nuclear Risk Management in Indo-Pacific’, and speakers for this session were Dr. Roshan Khanijo, Assistant Director (Research), CS3, and Mr. Robert N Hein. The session was followed by discussions. Finally, the closing remarks were given by Maj Gen RPS Bhadauria and Dr Satu Limaye, Sr Advisor in China & Indo-Pacific Security Affairs Division.

                                                                                                                Group Photo

Key Takeaways

·         The discussion on ‘Possibility of QUAD into Military Partnership: Implications’ emphasised the likelihood of expanding QUAD’s capabilities and influence given Chinese advances in military capabilities and technology.

·                  Emphasising China’s geographic location and advantages, the discussion underscored how the adversary is taking advantage of small neighbouring nations, and a fractured ASEAN to reaffirm its contested territorial claims.

·               Highlighted the significance of regional support to facilitate a swift reaction to Chinese aggression and making partnerships with nations in the Indo-Pacific region and South China Sea crucial. In this capacity, the discussion highlighted the need for robust regional cooperation and support.

·             As a multilateral grouping, QUAD serves to primarily mitigate non-kinetic security threats from China. The QUAD nations’ partnership, its posturing and military assets send a strong deterrent signal.

·               QUAD needs to formalise itself with an organisational structure and a secretariat to fortify its presence in the region.

·          Partnerships between the US and India become essential and agreements like LEMOA, COMCASA, GSOMIA and BECA needs to be taken to an operational level.

·                     It is also central to explore and fast-track information-sharing in the underwater domain, specifically with regards to submarine detection technology and information sharing mechanisms for ships crossing international waters.

Indian Panellists

Indian Panellists

·              The second session discussion focused on “Nuclear Risk Management in Indo-Pacific” and emphasised the role of various nuclear powers in the region and emerging trends in nuclear threats in Asia.

·             The current Asian nuclear environment is embodied by possible conflict in the Korean peninsula, the escalation of tensions leading to conflict at Taiwan strait and China’s nuclear modernisation.

·            North Korea is building a formidable nuclear arsenal and the warfighting capability is now designed to evade regional ballistic missile defences. SRBMs demonstrates better mobility, potency, and precision and focused on “miniaturisation of weapons” for tactical use. They are also developing ICBMS with MIRVs and SLBMs.

·                  South Korea is sharpening the response options with launching five surveillance satellites. There is a debate regarding developing nuclear capability as many have concerns about the feasibility of nuclear umbrella of the US.

·                  Japan is developing counterstrike capabilities that leverage stand-off defence capability. Japan is developing Intermediate Range Missile on all three platforms and are buying 400 American Tomahawk cruise missiles

·                     China is modernising its nuclear inventory both qualitatively as well as quantitatively and the newer version of missiles use lower-yield warhead and are precision guided missiles.

·          They have launch-on warning capabilities, have developed air launched ballistic missile as well as strategic bombers and the newer nuclear submarines are quieter with enhanced ranges for their SLBMs.

·                     Advances in niche and disruptive technologies will intensify competition.

·         There is lowering of Nuclear Thresholds due to use of low yield Tactical Nuclear Weapons both by North Korea and Pakistan

·         IOR is the newly expanded theatre of power competition and the overt nuclearisation of Indian Ocean does not bode well for the prospects of regional stability as major stakeholders have opted for a strategic path to increase their footprint in the region.

·         Most Nuclear Weapon State’s undergoing Nuclear Force Modernisation due to technological upgradation leading to Arms Race and a challenge to Nuclear Disarmament.

·         One needs to have strategic dialogue with transparent postures to avoid miscalculation.

·         Regular CBMs for crisis management and open hotlines for better communication.

·         Instead of dyadic treaties there should be more trilateral/multilateral nuclear negotiations with better representations from nuclear power states.

 

Report by Tavishi Sharma, Research Intern, CS3-USI