United Service Institution of India

Afghanistan Crisis: India's Conundrum by Col Harpal Singh

REPORT

On 14 July 2023, the Centre for Strategic Studies and Simulation (CS3), United Service Institution (USI) of India, organised a scholar’s presentation titled “Afghanistan Crisis: India’s Conundrum” by Col Harpal Singh, Senior Research Fellow.

The presentation commenced with Welcome Remarks by Maj Gen RPS Bhadauria, VSM (Retd), Director CS3. Thereafter, Maj Gen RS Yadav, VSM (Retd) delivered the guide’s remarks. The presentation was followed by remarks by the external discussant Lt Gen GS Katoch, PVSM, AVSM, VSM (Retd). The event concluded with the closing remarks by Maj Gen RPS Bhadauria. Council members and distinguished serving officers of the Armed Forces attended the event.

Key Takeaways

 Assessment of the Current Situation

• Currently, the 2004 Afghan Constitution is suspended, and the 1964-era constitution is provisionally implemented under Taliban government. Houses of the Afghan Parliament, Election Commission, Human Rights Commission and other ministries have been subsumed under the Taliban governance. They have replaced existing Afghan laws with Sharia laws and have issued several decrees and guidelines regarding the same.
• The Taliban has been the strongest Politico-Military force since 1970. They control all 34 provinces and have organised armed forces into 8 military corps and special units called Red Units.

·         India and Afghanistan have historical relations, establishing diplomatic ties and the Treaty of Friendship in 1950. However, the first Taliban administration, which was established in 1996, was not recognised by India and the world community.

·         From 2001 to 2020, India provided humanitarian and developmental assistance that enhanced people-to-people relations between the two nations.

Panel Discussion

·         The present-day Taliban have reduced its dependence on Pakistan, the influence of TTP is growing, which is a concern for Pakistan, and further, the Taliban are also unwilling to accept the Durand Line as the de facto Pak-Afghan border.

·         Historically, the geography of the subcontinent has shaped Afghanistan’s history. Geography has been Afghanistan’s biggest curse, Pakistan’s biggest blessing, and India’s biggest distraction. However, it may not remain the same in the future as relevance of geography is diminishing.

·         Russia’s interests in Afghanistan have diminished since the end of the Cold War. Further, Afghanistan is no longer relevant to the strategic interests of the USA as well. Similarly, apart from economic relevance, China’s principal concern with Afghanistan is the possible spread of the Taliban to its Uyghur population.

·         India should therefore, prioritise developing its northern borders and maritime interests strategically.

Closing Remarks by Maj Gen RPS Bhadauria, VSM (Retd), Director CS3

Report By: Sonakshi Bhardwaj, Research Intern, CS3, USI