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The continued growth of China's overall national power, including its
military capabilities, and the manner in which strong resurgent China
will employ this power will have far-reaching consequences both for
Asia and the world. The Chinese leadership's commitment to build
comprehensive national strength (CNS) and leveraging its strategic
configuration of power (SCP) to achieve its strategic interests remain
a major factor in shaping the future stability and security of Asia.
China as it consolidates it power over the next couple of decade is
likely to have a multi-dimensional impact upon other states of the
Asia-Pacific region, an assessment broadly accepted by the strategic
community the world over. Most of these countries are likely to be
affected by Beijing's changing economic and military capabilities, its
trade and defence policies, its approach toward resolution of
bilateral disputes, and the manner in which it will leverage this
power. India, which too is rapidly developing as a strong economic and
military power, will be greatly impacted by these developments
particularly as both countries share common strategic space in Asia.
Even in United States there is growing recognition that following
Soviet disintegration, and Japanese power contained within the
U.S.-Japan alliance, China will be leading challenger to its future
geopolitical aspirations in Asia-Pacific. China is emerging as a
'peer' competitor and an alternative center of power and influence in
the region. Analysts are of the view that United States determination
to preserve its status of global pre eminence and China's
determination to reassert its historical and traditional dominant
position in Asia is likely to lead to unavoidable and inevitable
rivalry Sino-US rivalry. This will impact on virtually every
international issue and in all parts of the world, with Asia bearing
the brunt. The dimension and manner in which competition unfolds will
to a degree determine the course of future security situation in
Asia-Pacific.
China's Role in Asia
It needs to be acknowledged that China's growing power and expanding
role in Asia, is not only likely to continue but this trend could get
accelerated over the next two decades, barring an unforeseen internal
crisis in China. In geo strategic terms states across Asia are likely
to be "sucked" into the Chinese economic vortex through increasing
economic ties, resources relationships, and investments in
infrastructure. As one analyst recently observed that China's Asian
strategy is linked directly to its multinational strategy-using
multilateral and regional organizations to bolster its economic and
political ties across Asia-which supports its modernization strategy.
As a result, Asian economies are getting increasingly intertwined with
China, which, is beginning to have geopolitical implications for Asia
in general and India in particular. An interesting aspect that emerged
during a recent international Scenario Building Seminar in Canberra,
Australia was the likely problem faced by the US in managing existing
alliances in Asia in the backdrop of growing economic integration of
Asian economies with China.
There should be no doubt that the underlying aim of the current
Chinese leadership is to make China a great power-"world class, second
to none"-and that to achieve this goal, the Chinese are consciously
and unwaveringly erecting the building blocks of comprehensive
national power. Chinese leaders understand that the hard power (e.g.,
military and economic power) the country has been accumulating over
the past 15 years can easily be translated into soft power that
enables it to dissuade and deter other states' behavior.
China's growth and activities in Asia underscore the importance and
urgency for India's economic success and emergence as a major regional
player. Underlying the central importance of successful economic
reforms and growth, particularly if India seeks to play a balancing
role in Asia, and wants to be accepted as the preferable strategic
partner, and above all taken seriously. In fact policymakers/academics
from Asian states, particularly from Southeast Asia, and to a degree
Japan and Taiwan would like to see India accelerating economic reforms
and improve economic infrastructure in order to provide alternative
choices. It is important for India to maximize the "arc of advantage"
by strengthening relationships with key countries in Asia-Japan,
Israel, Vietnam, Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore, and Iran-as well as
Australia. The underlying theme of Indian Prime Ministers initiative
for strategic understanding with the US despite major criticism is
underscored by above realisation.
Chinese Balance of Power Strategy in Asia
This is predicated on the fact that China seeks to lead a "unipolar
Asia" and is using the concept of "multipolarity" as a smokescreen to
facilitate its dominance in Asia. To achieve this broad geo strategic
objective that is in tune with the propensities of Middle Kingdom, it
is attempting a twin track strategy. One it is incrementally
maximizing the power gap between strong Asian neighbours - Japan,
India, and Russia. As also by pitting Pakistan against India, North
Korea against Japan and South vs North Korea it is attempting to keep
its potential Asian rivals preoccupied. In addition, China is using
states such as Iran, Myanmar, and Bangladesh etc. as pawns in its
balance of power strategy. Secondly it is using soft power in terms of
political and economic engagement to incrementally enhance its
strategic space in Asia. Its eventual aim is to contain the influence
of beleaguered United States to become a pre-eminent power in Asia
particularly in terms of economic and strategic dominance. This
scenario however is predicated in Chinese perspective upon the medium
and long term implications of 'India's rise' and the manner in which
resurgent India will attempt to shape its strategic space. That this
scenario is worrisome to the Chinese is indicated by frequent
assertion by Chinese scholars that whereas China and India could
coexist in Asia, their being partners was implausible. Fundamentally
Chinese believe that as both countries rise simultaneously competition
between the two is inherent. It is the nature of competition that is
often left undefined.
China's Economic Orbit
Given the current Chinese trade and other indicators China barring
unforeseen and uncontrolled internal developments will overtake the
United States over the next two decades as the largest trading partner
of every Asian nation. As trade with China grows rapidly, many of the
Southeast Asian states and even countries like Australia, South Korea
and even Japan will be drawn into the Chinese economic orbit (if not
already so), increasing Chinese influence over these states and
critically restraining their strategic choices. This trend, which will
be difficult to counter, and gives China a growing sense of autonomy
on how to build its relationships with other states. In such a
scenario dilemma for India will be whether to be more aggressive in
positioning itself as a balancer to China in Southeast Asia and
Central Asia both as an economic partner and a player of consequences
in the regional organizations, such as the Association of Southeast
Asian Nations (ASEAN), ASEAN +3 (or +4) and the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization (SCO) etc. Particularly as such a positioning runs the
inherent risk of alienating China, for the most part if it is seen as
a part of broad based collaborative strategy with the US.
Challenges Posed by China
From Indian perspective despite the enthusiasm about Sino-Indian
economic relations and growing political and strategic understanding,
there are a range of unsettling developments and concerns about
China's role and intentions in Asia that will have a direct impact on
India. These developments need to be monitored carefully and India
needs to be prepared to counter Chinese inroads with its own strategy.
Unfortunately in most areas of present and future competition India
lacks a coherent and effective counter-strategy. Be that as it may
what is disconcerting is that inconvenient and searching issues are
deliberately left off the table at high-level Sino-Indian discussions
merely for the sake of moving the relationship forward.
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