The Indo-US Trajectory: Going Which Way?

Dr Parama Sinha Palit

The Indo-US joint statement in July 2005 seems to have marked a new shift in the Indo-US relations in the current international system. The trajectory demonstrating a significant transformation underway since President Clinton's visit to India in 2000 further shows an all-time high. The two countries are increasingly engaged in strategic partnership and the National Security Strategy 2002 (NSS) goes on to referring 'India's potential to become one of the great democratic powers of the twenty-first century'¹ for the first time in US history.

The Indo-US strategic cooperation is not a recent phenomenon, but it has assumed new proportions in the last couple of years. The strategic circles in the US are prompted to project India as a 'strong and independent' nation representing 'a strategic asset, even when it remains only a partner and not a formal ally'. Such a judgement reflects Washington's changed perception of India in the present world order. It signals that the two countries are no more grounded in obsolete intrinsic conflicts of interest, and are engaged in carving out 'strategic coordination' facilitating greater interaction between the them.

The Cold War dynamics have been replaced by new realities. In this strategic milieu, India poses as a 'hedge' against new rivals that seem to challenge the United States in the Asian region. The US Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, at her famous Sophia University speech in March 2005, categorically stated--: "I do believe that the US-Japan relationship, the US-South Korea relationship, the US-Indian relationship, are all important in creating an environment in which China is more likely to play a positive role than a negative role"² --- thus attempting a Sino-American accommodation while engaging the other key players in the region.

The current Indo-US cooperation is significant. The partnership involves several areas but the most important of these are the defence cooperation, and the nuclear deal.

Defence Cooperation: A Landmark?

On June 28, 2005 India and the US signed the landmark New Framework for the US-India Defence Relationship.³ Termed as a mere framework and not a pact, this relationship marks the beginning of a 'new era' in Indo-US ties. The framework intends to chart military-to-military relations between the two largest democracies until 2015. In the Senate Hearings of November 2, 2005, Nicholas Burns categorically stated that "we're planning to enlarge defence trade, improve cooperation between our armed forces, and co-produce military hardware"⁴. This kind of cooperation is unparalleled in Indo-US history. The framework offers large opportunities of cooperation between the two countries and is bound by 'shared common interest'.

The latest evidence of the intense defence engagement between Washington and New Delhi was the November 2005 air exercises held in West Bengal. Leading experts on the area stated that 'pitting our air warriors in exercises against their best would help to hone our combat skills without having to adopt anything that does not suit us'. There is no denying that the US Air Force has been in combat more often across the globe for the past six decades. In addition to its combat superiority, its Air Force is also the leader in high-technology weapons systems and professional operational employment. Such kind of cooperation opens up new areas of partnership for the two countries in a transformed global order.

The Nuclear Deal: How Far Will It Go?

The nuclear deal is the cornerstone of the recent strategic partnership that is evolving between the two countries. The July 2005 joint statement⁵ signed between the US President Bush and the Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh calls for civil nuclear cooperation between the two countries. However, there are a number of issues bedeviling the cooperation in this area. Washington expects India to take a number of steps in order to be a part of the global nonproliferation regime, of which India is not a signatory. Washington seems doubtful about India's commitment to the July 18 deal, since the procedure is 'difficult, complex and time-consuming'. The main hitch seems to be India's commitment to separate civilian from military facilities in order to receive full nuclear energy cooperation from the international community. Even within the country, there seems to be contradictory views on the matter.

The strategic community in both Washington and New Delhi seem apprehensive over the issue. However, both countries realize that isolation of India from the international nonproliferation regime suits neither. Consequently, 'engagement' has become the key word in the Indo-US relations in the past few months and India is being recognized as a country that will 'play an increasingly important leadership role in 21st Century Asia' and prove to be an important partner of the United States in the current strategic landscape.

A New Trajectory in the Making

The Indo-US relations seem to be moving in a positive direction since new dynamics have come to play with the disintegration of the Soviet Union. Cold War compulsions have given rise to new realities. In this kind of global scenario, Washington seems to be in search of new partners and allies in keeping with its evolving strategies to deal with the 21st Century challenges. This has compelled the United States to look at India from a new prism. With India's gradual rise in the international system, Washington has found a new partner which shares with it common values and objectives to a great extent. The recent Deutsche Bank Research Report even identifies India as a potential world power, given India's 'immense military clout in South Asia, stable democratic political system, huge middle class population, rising economic fortunes and global ambitions'.

India on its part also looks at Washington with great expectations. The United States remains the home for high-technology and nuclear energy. Given India's vast requirement for both high-technology and nuclear energy--crucial to India's rise as a major player in the current global set-up--India has every intention of remaining 'engaged' with the superpower. Many would not hesitate to refer to India's recent stand on the Iran issue as reflecting India's intent to come closer to the United States.

As the relations unfold, it would be interesting to watch the developments that take place in Indo-US relations. Despite the close cooperation between the two democracies, the relationship is not without problems. The Left parties in India and the US Congress seem to pose as major hurdles in the relationship. Further, the US President has another three years to go. Despite differences existing between Washington and New Delhi, the future course seems challenging. Both the countries understand the need to extricate themselves from the Cold War variables that conditioned the relationship for decades. Both the countries seem keen to engage one another constructively to meet future challenges based on common interest. The foundation of forging better ties seems to have been laid by the two countries. However, it will be interesting to identify the 'other factors' and analyse how these could help in shaping the Indo-US partnership in the coming years.