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Northeast Asia is one of the most dangerous places in the post-Cold
War world in geopolitical terms. It has the world’s heaviest
concentration of military and economic potential.
In Northeast Asia, it is the Korean peninsula that is the cause of
most concern for the international community. In fact, the peninsula
has been called the ‘oriental Balkan’ and the ‘far-east powder flask’
by some scholars. The instability and insecurity on the Korean
Peninsula comes from the competition between the South and North
political systems due to the division of the Korean peninsula. The
Korean peninsula remains separated by political ideology, mutual
distrust of national leadership, the 155-mile DMZ Demilitarized Zone
(38th parallel), American military presence and the North Korean
nuclear issue. In terms of the share of population under arms or the
share of military expenditures in national income, North Korea is the
most militarised society in the world. It produces and exports
ballistic missiles and is believed to possess large stores of chemical
and biological weapons and nuclear weapons.
There are many issues in the Korean peninsula which could have
widespread implications for Asia and the world. Of these, the most
important are: North Korea’s nuclear development, North Korea’s future
and the long-term feasibility of the ROK-US alliance.
North Korea’s nuclear programme is a cause of concern for Asia and the
world at large not just because of proliferation concerns, but also
because it is an authoritarian state with an uncertain future; since
its leaders are not accountable to the people, there is no saying what
they decide to do with their nuclear weapons and technology. In 1993,
North Korea withdrew from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. This
move led to a series of crises which finally culminated in the North
Korean underground nuclear test of 2006 which sent shockwaves shaking
the heart of East Asian security and the existing geopolitical balance
in Asia underpinned by the US nuclear umbrella.
Beyond Korea’s borders, North Korea’s nuclear test raised widespread
concerns about a ‘domino effect’ in Asia with many scholars suggesting
that Japan, South Korea and Taiwan could ultimately opt for their own
nuclear programmes to counter threats from North Korea if they find
the US support to be inadequate. If this happens, a whole part of Asia
would be nuclearised. This would undermine the security and stability
that have underwritten the region’s economic vitality and prosperity
and end prospects for a lasting peace and settlement on the Korean
Peninsula. Conversely, the nuclear weapons could also act as
deterrents as in the case of India and Pakistan. Another threat posed
by North Korea's nuclear activities relates to poor safety standards
and lack of technologies to deal with spills and other accidents.
North Korea has been accused of collaborating on the nuclear
programmes of Syria, Libya, Pakistan among others. Six Party Talks
(with China, US, Russia, Japan, South Korea and North Korea as the
parties) aimed at giving North Korea economic and diplomatic benefits
in return for North Korea giving up its nuclear programme started in
2003. But talks broke down after North Korea’s nuclear test in October
2006. In February this year, North Korea agreed to allow the entry of
international nuclear inspectors and the shutdown of the Yongbyon
complex, which had produced bomb-grade plutonium in return for 50,000
tonnes of heavy fuel oil. An agreement was reached early in October
this year according to which North Korea will dismantle its nuclear
facilities by the end of the year. This is certainly a major
breakthrough. But we will have to wait and watch to see if this
actually happens because the North Korean regime is known for going
back on agreements and for being unpredictable.
The second important development that has implications for Asia is the
future of the North Korean state. North Korea is in a terrible
economic crisis. It does not generate enough output to sustain its
population and is dependent on food and fuel aid from the UN, South
Korea and China. Another source of income for North Korea is sale of
weapons and transfer of nuclear technology to countries like Pakistan
and making counterfeit currency. The more desperate North Korea
becomes, the more likely it is that it will sell arms and technology
even to rogue states and terrorist groups. It is this fear which has
prompted the international community to give it aid. The Korean
peninsula will never be economically and politically stable until
there is change in the North Korean regime, either through internal
reforms or through its collapse. A government like the current North
Korean regime which is isolated, economically backward, and repressive
cannot exist peacefully in the modern world. If the regime does fall,
it would have spill-over effects on its neighbouring countries,
particularly South Korea, Japan and China. There would be a huge
exodus of refugees to China, putting great pressure on its Northeast.
China is also motivated by a desire to keep North Korea as a “buffer
state” between it and the US troops stationed in South Korea.
Economic collapse leading to regime change would be devastating and
pose threats to international and regional stability, especially if
accompanied by civil war and military intervention by external powers.
Even if the collapse is not violent, the economic and political
effects on the region would be severe.
A better prospect would be the reunification of the Koreas. A
re-unified Korea would again alter the balance of forces in Asia as
Korea would then emerge as a strategic and economic challenger to both
China and Japan. Strategically, a re-unified Korea which has an
alliance with the US would bring the US military presence even closer
to China’s borders.
The third important challenge is the state of the US-South Korea
alliance. Though initially formed to deter aggression from North
Korea, it is today one of the pillars of US security strategy in Asia.
The alliance has helped the US provide economic assistance to Korea
which has helped it to reduce expenses on security and helped it to
focus on economic growth. The alliance has also reduced hostilities
between South Korea and Japan and has helped to counter China’s
growing regional influence and deter any precipitous action on the
peninsula. The alliance has been beneficial to both parties. South
Korea has been a strong ally of the US and has contributed troops to
American military operations for decades. It sent troops to help the
Americans during the Vietnam War and has sent non-combatant troops to
Iraq. It helped the US gain a foothold in Asia during the Cold War and
its presence continues to help promote US goals in Asia.
But fissures have developed in the alliance over the North Korean
issue. South Korea feels that greatest threat it could face from North
Korea is the collapse of the regime leading to devastation of South
Korea’s social, economic and political systems. The US and other
countries like Japan and Australia see North Korea as a Cold War
threat due to its proliferation activities, human rights abuses etc.
Thus, for the United States, the source of the threat lies in the
strength of the North Korean regime, while for South Korea, the threat
lies in the regime’s fundamental weakness and its potential for
collapse. Many Koreans also feel that the American position towards
North Korea is the obstacle to reconciliation between the two Koreas.
This has led to the growth of anti-Americanism in the country. But it
is important for the alliance to continue for various reasons: it has
helped to counter China’s hegemony in the region and has helped deter
North Korea from an open war on South Korea. Thus, the alliance has
been a stabilising factor in the region. There have been some steps
towards a more balanced security partnership between South Korea and
the US. South Korea is now assuming more responsibility for its own
defence while the United States reduces its own military footprint by
redeploying forces away from the DMZ and Central Seoul. The US-South
Korea alliance is likely to endure, though with some changes making it
a more equitable one.
While China and Japan, being neighbours, are likely to be the most
affected by any developments in the Korean peninsula, the rest of Asia
too cannot breathe easy till a solution is found to North Korea’s
nuclear weaponisation and proliferation. Measures must be put in place
to ensure that North Korean weapons and technology do not fall into
the hands of terrorists and rogue states. To offset any negative
developments in the Korean peninsula, it is important to have a
cooperative Asian security architecture. This could include important
regional players like China, Japan, Russia, India, both the Koreas and
ASEAN. The ARF could provide the forum for such cooperative security
architecture. The US could play an important role in facilitating this
cooperation. At the same time, we must remember that the real solution
to stable peace on the Korean peninsula is reconciliation between
North and South Korea.
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