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Afghanistan has increasingly become the focus of attention of Shanghai
Cooperation Organisation because of a variety of challenges being
posed to its members’ security from that direction. It is not only the
drug trafficking but also the rising specter of a resurgent Taliban
which threatens to destabilize Central Asian nations. President Hamid
Karzai has been a regular guest at SCO summits from 2004 onwards. Last
year Karzai, at Beijing summit, observed that “Afghanistan belongs to
the region where also lies the SCO. Afghanistan has no other ways, and
can't be outside the region.” This underscores the geo-strategic
relevance of Afghanistan as an important link between Central Asia and
South Asia.
Afghanistan is surrounded by either the members or the observers of
the SCO and the instability emanating from there has the potential of
spilling over to all its neighbours and beyond.
While in the wake of September 2001 attacks SCO members raised no
objections to the US being granted military bases in Uzbekistan and
Kyrgyzstan because it suited their short term strategic interests; the
SCO summit in June 2005 called for the US to vacate the bases because
of a variety of factors; sponsoring of ‘colour revolutions’ being one
of the reasons. The US continues to hold on to its military base of
Manas in Kyrgyzstan. This year’s SCO summit has not called for
withdrawal of the American base, perhaps leaving it to Kyrgyzstan to
take a decision.
In order to address mutual concerns a protocol on establishing a SCO
Afghanistan Contact Group was signed in November 2005. Bishkek
Summit’s joint communiqué of August 2007 while expressing concern over
the threat of narcotics coming from Afghanistan and its negative
effect on Central Asia, also called for “consistent strengthening of
anti-narcotics cooperation in the framework of the Organisation,
combining international efforts on the creation of anti-narcotics
belts around Afghanistan. The SCO member states stand ready to
participate in the efforts to normalise the political situation in
Afghanistan, to develop economic cooperation with the country. The
activity of the SCO – Afghanistan Contact Group will intensify.”
Evidently, this would help preventing terrorists from gaining access
to funds. The mechanism of the SCO Afghanistan Contact Group is also
sought to be used for enhancing the cooperative efforts in the areas
of economic development with concomitant effects in improvement of
security situation.
Security agenda dominated the SCO discussions this year. President
Putin called for the creation of a ‘belt of counter-narcotics
security’ around Afghanistan and an aggressive hunt for the financial
roots of the drug trade in Afghanistan. Putin also urged the SCO to
host an international conference on Afghanistan with the aim of
boosting stability there. As a goodwill gesture Russia signed a deal
with Afghanistan in early August to write off around 90 percent of its
Soviet-era debt totaling $11.1 billion, with the remainder to be
repaid over 23 years. Uzbek President Islam Karimov stressed on the
SCO’s concerns about Afghanistan. “As close neighbors of Afghanistan,
we are concerned by developments in that country that are
characterized by a trend of further escalation, with significant
military activities by the Taliban movement and continuing,
uncontrolled growth in drug production and drug trafficking”.
In the run up to the SCO summit the Russian-led Collective Security
Treaty Organization (CSTO) had proposed to the Chinese-led SCO in
joining efforts on post-conflict rehabilitation of Afghanistan.
Nikolai Bordyuzha, the Secretary General of CSTO suggested that “We
together, including China, which makes part of the Shanghai
Cooperation Organisation should assist in preventing the Taliban from
coming to power, otherwise we will get serious problems in
Afghanistan, problems for many years”.
It is yet to be seen how these new overtures of the SCO would be
perceived by NATO and the US. At a broader level there appears to be a
congruence of goals of SCO, NATO and the US in Afghanistan especially
in the areas of narcotics-trafficking and economic development of
Afghanistan. Further, in a general sense the ‘Great Central Asia
Concept’ espoused by the US is based on the theme of linking Central
Asia with South Asia through energy and transportation corridors. This
concept finds resonance with economic and trade development missions
of SCO-Afghanistan Contact Group.
Even in the field of security, common goal of SCO and NATO is to
prevent Taliban from gaining power in Kabul. Yet, SCO’s action in
enlarging its scope in Afghan affairs is likely to be viewed in a
negative light by both NATO and the US. Neither the US nor NATO is
wont to give credibility to a security structure which may present
itself as an alternative to them. Also it would amount to interference
in an area which the US and NATO consider as their own exclusive
preserve. NATO’s credibility and relevance is at stake in Afghanistan
and its success or otherwise in Afghanistan would have a tremendous
impact on its survival and expansion plans. Moreover, it can not be
seen taking help from an upstart security structure which may turn out
to be the ‘NATO of the East’.
Further, the SCO-CSTO combine’s steps towards unifying their roles in
military and security arena as reflected by the joint Peace Mission
2007 exercise have also raised apprehensions amongst the NATO and the
US regarding the strategic intentions of the new emerging Eurasian
block. While the US and NATO remain mired in Iraq and Afghanistan SCO
and CSTO seem to have consolidated their strategic hold in Central
Asia and have decided to include Afghanistan in their security orbit.
They are preparing for a scenario in which NATO and US forces might
leave Afghanistan because of difficulties being experienced by them
and rising unpopularity of Afghan mission in the Western countries.
SCO has called for an international conference on Afghanistan early
next year. It is a good opportunity for all the competing players to
address the problems of Afghanistan and evolve a unified solution.
Collaborative efforts are likely to pay better dividends than the
strategic games being played now with no improvement in security
situation in sight.
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