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India perceives its security interests in three concentric circles
viz. immediate neighborhood, extended neighborhood and rest of the
global arena. Central Asian Region (CAR) forms part of the extended
neighborhood wherein lies Uzbekistan one of the most strategically
important nations of CAR. In April this year India and Uzbekistan
completed 15 years of establishment of diplomatic relations. It also
coincided with India’s Minister of State for Commerce’s visit to
Uzbekistan to cement the ties further. But a review of Indo-Uzbek
relations shows a mixed report card.
Uzbekistan occupies a unique position in CAR because of geo-strategic
and geo-political factors. It is the only country which has borders
with the other four CAR states. It has the largest population of 25
million and is the hub of transit corridors in Central Asia. It has
sizeable diaspora in neighbouring countries which creates its own
dynamics. Further, its natural resources including liquid hydrocarbons
and gas reserves make it strategically important for energy hungry and
rapidly growing India. It also has borders Afghanistan where
resurgence of Taliban is raising the specter of spilling over of
fundamentalism and terrorism to CAR.
India’s cultural and civilization links, its liberal and secular
fabric, its pluralistic society and other elements of India’s soft
power are India’s strengths for improving its relations with
Uzbekistan. India has been endeavoring to develop economic and trade
relations which, to a large extent, are being hampered by the lack of
a direct route to the region.
Uzbekistan is undergoing a difficult and painful process of nation
building for over a decade and half. India prefers the stability of
the current regimes and peaceful reform rather than the promotion of
any aggressive democratic practices. Therefore, India is considered as
a friendly partner by Uzbekistan and a country which can play a
balancing role in the fierce power play taking place in Central Asia.
In April last year the Indian Prime Minister visited Uzbekistan and
signed a number of agreements relating to education, IT, the oil and
gas sector, light industry, agriculture, mineral resources and
pharmaceuticals. The two sides also expressed satisfaction with the
results of the second meeting of the Joint Working Group on Combating
International Terrorism. But President Karimov’s visit to Pakistan on
the heels of Indian PM’s visit engendered some speculation on the
timing and purpose of his visit. It raised concerns about balancing
India’s influence in ongoing proxy battle in Afghanistan and CAR.
Even though there has been a high degree of political cooperation the
economic and trade activity between the two nations has not reached
anywhere near its normal potential. For instance, Indo-Uzbek trade in
2004-05 was around 49 million US dollars compared to around 95 million
US dollars with Kazakhstan. Further, Indo-Uzbek trade has followed
somewhat erratic trajectory in last decade or so.
Moreover, Uzbekistan is being courted by all the major players in CAR
like the US, Russia, China and EU. Uzbekistan is keen to garner
maximum benefits from this competition between the major players and
therefore is being pulled in different directions. Of late while
influence of Russia and China has been rising the stock of US and EU
has been on the decline. India, for a number of reasons remains a weak
player in the region and has been exploring strategic space to
accentuate its profile. While both Uzbekistan and India realise the
importance of developing the North-South corridor through Afghanistan
and Iran, the same has been getting delayed because of instability in
Afghanistan. It also needs to be noted that Pakistan has been wooing
Uzbekistan to use its newly opened Gwadar port.
Therefore, to improve India’s footprints in CAR in general and
Uzbekistan in particular, Shri Jairam Ramesh visited Tashkent in April
2007. He offered to help establish a training institute for gas
technology in Tashkent, along the lines of the Jawaharlal Nehru IT
Centre in the Uzbek capital that was inaugurated by the Prime
Minister, Dr. Manmohan Singh last year. GAIL has identified four
specific blocks for gas exploration. So far Russia, China and South
Korea have invested in gas exploration in Uzbekistan. Shri Jairam
Ramesh also conveyed India’s interest in exploring for gold in
gold-rich Uzbekistan since India is now the world's largest importer
of gold. The Uzbek government has agreed to consider a proposal for
gold exploration by Indian undertakings but wants this proposal to
include value-addition investments in Uzbekistan itself. The purpose
of visit was to take the bilateral economic relationship to a new
level.
Indo-Uzbek military to military relations also received a fillip
recently when it was decided to send an Indian military training team
to Uzbekistan in August this year. Besides teaching English to the
troops, it will train them in weapon handling, map craft and
fundamental battalion procedures. Earlier, Uzbek troops have been
trained in India’s Counter Insurgency Warfare School in Mizoram. India
had also contracted for and received six air-to-air refueller IL-78
aircraft which were helpful in reviving the Chkalov aviation plant in
Tashkent lying closed for about a decade. Indo-Uzbek agreement also
caters repairing of Indian transport aircraft in Tashkent.
Thus present state of Indo-Uzbek strategic engagement can be seen as
either a glass half empty or half full. Future course and direction of
the engagement would be guided by how much India is willing to invest
in Uzbekistan under the existing environs.
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