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While Pakistan has been carrying out proxy war against
India for last one and half decade its proxy war against the US and
NATO forces is only half a decade old that has provided it with
considerable military and economic benefits. Pakistan has acquired
consummate skills in plausible deniability where the victims
themselves support Pakistan’s military establishment point of view.
NATO Commanders fighting Taliban have expressed dismay
at George Bush and Tony Blair for declining to call Musharraf's bluff
that Pakistan and ISI are not aiding Taliban. Vice President Dick
Cheney also continues to be a strong supporter of Musharraf's way of
approaching the Afghan issue. During a tri-partite meeting between
President Bush, Afghan President Hamid Karzai and Musharraf on
September 28 at Washington, President Bush declined to raise the
question of Pakistan's support to Taliban out of Quetta sanctuaries in
Balochistan province of Pakistan.
Situation for NATO forces has been worsening since
Pakistan signed a truce with Taliban in Waziristan area of FATA in
first week of September which gave Taliban a free run of the area.
The incidence of Taliban attacks against the NATO forces has risen
threefold since then in the Afghan provinces bordering
Waziristan. Further, Waziristan
has completely become Talibanised with Taliban's summary style of
justice being dispensed and local Taliban chiefs issuing edicts to
fight the foreign infidels in Afghanistan.
General David Richards, the head of NATO forces in
Afghanistan was expected to present mounting evidence of Taliban
headquarters being in Quetta and the extensive involvement of ISI in
aiding Taliban during his visit to Islamabad in early October.
However, after his meetings with President General Musharraf and other
top generals of Pakistan, General Richards came back appreciating
Pakistan's role and "thanked the President, the government, the armed
forces and security agencies of Pakistan for the excellent cooperation
being extended in the fight against terrorism."
Not only has NATO Chief extolled virtues of Pakistan's
role, he has emulated Pakistan by concluding a Waziristan like truce
with Taliban in Musa Qala a district of Helmand province where
British troops casualties have been the highest. NATO forces have also
withdrawn from the Babrak Tana area in the Ali Sher district of
Khost. The Taliban is already crowing about the pull out as another
major victory against NATO forces. By end October talks were also
underway between the Taliban and NATO forces - through tribal elders -
over the pullout of troops from 12 districts along the Pakistan Afghan
border. All this bodes well for Pakistan's strategic ambitions but not
for regional and international security.
For NATO, Afghan mission has become a test case for its
credibility and relevance. Though, initially a peace enforcement
mission under Chapter VII of the UN Charter the Afghan mission is
becoming more of a mission to combat a full blown insurgency. There is
also lack of mission clarity in their role and different NATO partners
have their own rules of engagement thus complicating the coordination
of a disparate force in synergizing their fight against Taliban.
While the US is in the process
of reducing the strength of its troops by 20 percent in Afghanistan by
end of this year, NATO is unable to muster additional troops required
from its member countries. Increasing tally of fatal causalities of
NATO partners and public opinion in their respective countries is also
exerting a negative impact on NATO's efforts. Sledgehammer tactics of
the US and NATO forces and large number of civilian causalities in air
strikes is also alienating the local populace.
Pakistan has become a key player in Afghanistan and is
in happy position to harass the US, NATO and Afghan government through
its support to Taliban on the one hand and also remain an
indispensable, major non-NATO ally by providing logistics and other
support to the US and NATO on the other hand. Whether the US and NATO
forces stay or leave it benefits Pakistan either way. Presence of the
US continues to make Pakistan strategically relevant to the US and it
benefits both militarily and economically. And if and when the
extra-regional forces leave Afghanistan, Pakistan would be ready to
claim its strategic space in Afghanistan through its Taliban proxies.
NATO would be fighting for many years in Afghanistan
unless Taliban's head in Pakistan is removed. All these
new 'peace zones' would be sanctuaries for rest and recuperation and
training bases for further Taliban operations. Frederic Grare, an
American analyst opines, " Pakistan's agents
can help vary the intensity of Taliban attacks and therefore pressure
the Afghan Government and US and NATO forces at will, according to the
needs of the moment, while it maintains the fiction that it is still
committed to the war on terror, thus preserving its usefulness and
maintaining its standing in the international community increasingly
trapped by its own priorities and disconnected from on-the-ground
realities."
Pakistan has perfected the art of fighting proxy wars
for achieving its foreign policy objectives and political goals.
Though it may have met with mixed success in Kashmir it is looking for
a major success in the shape of installing a Taliban regime in Kabul
beholden to Islamabad.
Internally, Pakistan military establishment has been
described as a predatory institution which, at first, creates
threat to security and then offers itself to neutralise the threat so
created. And in the bargain it remains in the driving seat
appropriating most of the national resources of Pakistan. It can
easily be perceived that it is following similar strategy with the US
and NATO by using Taliban. It is widely believed in the analysts’
community that removing Pakistan military's stranglehold on reigns of
power and democratizing Pakistan is a strategic imperative and key
to improving security and stability in Afghanistan.
Further, attack on a madrassa in Bajaur Agency of FATA
in end October by Pakistan Army resulted in death of 80 civilians
instead of Al Qaeda terrorists supposed to have been training there.
This incident also highlights the complexity of situation created by
Pakistan military’s policy of drawing distinction between Taliban
terrorists and Al Qaeda. Pakistan military and Taliban were expected
to sign a deal on that day on the lines of Waziristan truce. In the
bargain Pakistan Army is on the receiving end having faced one of the
worst suicide attacks by a terrorist where 35 soldiers under training
were killed in first week of November. Pakistan’s policies carrying
out proxy wars are recoiling on itself. |
