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1. While the fate of Presidential candidates in DRC is sealed in
the ballot boxes, after a near peaceful and historic elections of 29
Oct 2006, the international community awaits the results with great
anxiety. Will it be Joseph Kabila, the incumbent President and son of
Laurent Kabila, the erstwhile President or Jean Pierre Bemba, the
incumbent Vice President—a businessman and a rebel leader accused of
war crimes? While Mr Joseph Kabila who enjoys maximum support in the
eastern part of the country, secured nearly 45% of votes in the first
round of elections in July 06, the latter enjoys support of the
western region of the country and secured 20% of the votes in the
earlier round.
2. Undoubtedly, the largest UN peacekeeping mission, MONUC and
European Union forces along with Independent Election Commission (IEC)
have done a tremendous job to ensure a well coordinated, smooth, fair
and free conduct of elections in this vast country, despite many odds
including sporadic violence, logistic challenges and inclement
weather. Considering the average life expectancy of a Congolese ie 43
years, majority of them would not have experienced the last elections
conducted 45 years ago.
3. More importantly, all eyes are now focused on the outcome
of results and events that will unfold thereafter. Return of peace
will not only bring cheer to the Congolese people but also bring hope
for the nine neighboring states affected by wars due to a power vacuum
at the heart of Africa. Going by the history of the region, the looser
has always rejected the results and accused the rival candidate/
political party of rigging the elections. As long as it stops there,
it would be still manageable. Neither the Congolese people nor the
international community will accept at this historic moment, a return
to violence and destruction in a country which would imperil all the
achievements of peace process including the elections which cost the
international community 500$ million and would ruin the hopes of whole
population for peace, reconstruction and development.
4. Considering the worst case scenario, should the violence
break out on declaration of results, faction fighting is likely to
resume, in both eastern and western parts of the country. Neither of
the candidate may be in a position to control the volatile situation.
While MONUC may be able to contain some of the violence and improve
the security situation within its given mandate, it will be beyond the
Mission to cover the entire country of 2.34 million sq km . EU forces
stationed close to Kinshasa and in Gabon are mainly equipped with
logistics capabilities required for conduct of elections and some air
assets. Their contribution in controlling a given security situation
may be quite restricted, that too in places where threat is minimum
and reasonable infrastructure exists. A prolonged support to MONUC in
any case is beyond their mandate .Assuming that the security situation
is brought under control in a reasonable timeframe, conducive enough
to conduct another round of elections, it would be virtually
impossible to do so considering the enormous cost and the effort
involved.
The lessons from neighboring Angola where Savimbi rejected the poll
results during UNAVEM II forcing UN to return with even larger number
of forces and resources in yet another mission UNAVEM III, did not
yield the desired results. Country returned to civil war soon after
and UNAVEM III was added to the list of failed missions. I do not
think that either UN-DPKO or MONUC are ready with a plan to deal with
such a contingency. On the other hand if lessons of Mozambique are
applied to this situation it may turn out to be a success story
provided MONUC and its head, William Swing play their cards the – Aldo
Ajello (SRSG in Mozambique) way. I am sure the leadership of MONUC as
also all the players involved in the peace process in DRC understand
the repercussions of such a failure but whether the future political
leadership of DRC is ready to keep their national interests above
their personal gains, remains to be seen.
5. UN Security Council may have, in such a situation, options of
either downsizing the mission or carryout complete withdrawal from DRC
depending upon the pressure from international community and major
donors. Should that happen, it will be yet another failed mission
added to the previous list of UN with the “Lessons learnt” as the sole
achievement .It is bound to create yet another dent in the UN’s
capability to resolve conflicts across the globe and a major set back
to the ongoing UN reforms as well.
6. Since successful outcome of these elections will have a
direct bearing on whole of Central African Region and to a large
extent in north east Africa ie Ethiopia-Eritrea, Sudan and Somalia, it
may be prudent for the African Union (AU) to use its influence and go
much beyond its current efforts to convince the political leadership
of DRC and its neighbors to ensure return of peace in the region. It
needs to assume a larger role in terms of local ownership for
assisting in the peace building and development programme which would
follow after a government is in place.
7. Considering the best course scenario, should there be
peaceful formation of government after the election results are
declared, the “Peacebuilding” phase would commence. To ensure that the
conflict resolution reaches its logical end state, a large amount of
coordination with integrated approach will have to be followed among
all the agencies involved including the locals. Although some of it is
already happening, considering the fact that MONUC is an integrated UN
mission, but local ownership will need even greater attention to
ensure the development process is put on the track earliest. That
alone can bring smiles to 58 million people of DRC.
8. Till that happens, the world community can only keep its
fingers crossed and wait until 10 Nov 2006 to see the actual outcome.
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