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The
international systemic is undergoing significant transformation
post-September 11. While the year 1989 marked the end of the Cold War
with the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the phase beginning with
1990 till 2001 witnessed a transitional chapter in the history of
international relations. The United States was able to project itself
as the only superpower, and the Gulf War I established its primacy in
the world during the time. The ‘indispensable’ country was overwhelmed
with its own power projection around the world. However, the period
was short-lived and 2001 changed Washington’s perspective of itself
and the countries around the globe. Its vulnerability was exposed on
911 and the nation was ‘shocked’ by the sudden developments.
Subsequently, the US policy-makers have taken note of new realities
that have been unfolding on the international landscape. Amongst other
things, the United States has awakened to an ‘Asian Century’ that will
characterize the 21st century. China and India are seen as
‘new major global players’ that will impact and transform the
geopolitical setting. It is visualized that these two powers could
‘usher in a new set of international alignments’ that would break the
post World War II institutions and practices. The new landscape that
is being carved out is largely being shaped by these two major powers,
in collaboration with the other two key players in the region, namely
Japan and Russia.
With
Asia evolving as an economic powerhouse and energy hub, the United
States fears its exclusion from such a dynamic region. As a
superpower, Washington would try every way to remain involved with the
region, and that includes its current bases in Philippines which it
had closed in 1992. The bases in the Philippines support US global
strategy and are at the centre of Washington’s forward deployment
strategy in Asia. The Pentagon’s Global Posture Review,
examining the global distribution of US forces and facilities, has
estimated that currently 400,000 American service personnel are
deployed outside the continental US.[i]
The goal of the Review has been to achieve a structure which
allows forces to deploy anywhere in the world in 10 days, defeat their
enemy in 30 days and be ready to fight again within a month.[ii]
This will demonstrate the nation’s overreach capability. Given new
threats and challenges, it is imperative for the country to maintain
its power monopoly.
With
such an agenda and policy planning, the United States seems to be
little worried about its reputation around the globe. Its main
criterion is to reign as the only power with other smaller players
balancing one another without threatening its preeminent position in
the international system. With a global power shift from the west
to the east, Washington is increasingly taking note of Asia’s
growing strength, both strategic and economic. However, Asia also
accounts for Washington’s 21st century foremost concern.
The proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMDS) and terrorism
are the two gravest threats that the United States is grappling with
within the region.
Asia
presents itself as an inimitable region with its unique challenges and
opportunities. While India’s ‘rise’ as an economic power in the global
arena is imminent, China is already making its presence felt. It is
the latter development that intimidates the US. China's headlong
economic advance presents real challenges to American policy makers,
like potentially destabilizing trade and currency imbalances and a
growing competition for scarce global energy supplies. Coupled with
this is China’s military build-up. An august 2005 RAND commentary
reveals that “China’s military may rise to that of a world power,
capable of projecting power around the globe.”[iii]
With the PLA Budgets, Proposals, and the Discussions at the Second
Session of the 10th National People’s Congress (NPC)
refusing to announce the corrected figure for the 2003 defence budget
or the projected number for the 2004 budget at the 2004 NPC, but
merely announcing the amount of the increase in absolute (21.83
billion Yuan or US dollar 2.6 billion) and relative (11.6 per cent)
terms[iv]
leaves immense scope for speculation regarding China’s growing
military strength and its niggling equation with Taiwan.
The
international community led by Washington is faced with one daunting
question and that is whether China aims to remain a status quo
power or a revisionist power all set to alter
the world system. In the meantime China is planning its moves
well in advance probably to suit its future strategy of becoming a
paramount power in Asia. China excluded Washington from the East
Asian Summit in December 2005. The nascent Asian economic community
meeting in December 2005 without the US makes the Bush administration
uncomfortable. It is a gathering of the ten members of the Association
of the South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), plus China, Japan, South
Korea, India, Australia and New Zealand. These countries together
constitute more than half the world’s population and own more than
two-thirds of the world’s foreign exchange reserves, including most of
America’s vast debts.[v]
Washington’s alliance with Japan and South Korea also seem under
strain. While the former is dabbling with its nuclear option and
delivering on Article 9 of its Constitution, the latter is inching
closer to China for economic prospects. North Korea’s violation of the
Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) and its nuclear stand, on the other
hand, complicates the region further which forms a key element of the
entire Asian matrix. While these issues continue to alarm Washington
policy-makers, Central Asia is yet another important part of the
region with great energy potential. Despite its split with former
Soviet Union, Russia continues to demonstrate its hold over the
Central Asian republics. Its rich energy reserve makes the countries
too significant to be ignored even by countries like China and India,
let alone the United States, in a world that is facing acute energy
crisis.
The
Confederation of Independent States’ (CIS) transition from Soviet
republics to independent states with market economies and democratic
political systems is still underway. The recent moving of the Central
Asian republics from the European Bureau into the South Asian Bureau
in early 2006 signals the importance attached to the Central Asian
republics by the US State Department. The United States policy-makers
are keen to integrate Central Asia with South Asia which is
increasingly becoming high on the US ‘list of priorities’. From being
the ‘arc of crisis’, the region is on its way to posing as the ‘arc of
opportunity’ for the United States and the international community.
It is
not the United States alone that is focusing on the Central Asian
republics. The Chinese and the Russians, the other two dominant
players in the region are equally excited about their future prospects
in the republics. The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) floated
by China and Russia in June 2001 probably has been to offer an
alternative regional security system to ‘challenge the US’ in Central
Asia.[vi]
This new organization becomes important, one because it probably
caters to a larger Chinese interest of just focusing on nontraditional
security threats, particularly terrorism and two, since it signals the
emergence of China as a big player in the region where the US has
large stakes.
Notwithstanding the volatility and challenges associated with the
region, the United States is increasingly inclined to engage the
region completely. Whether it is to ‘end tyranny’ or ‘advance
freedom’, Washington is determined to remain engaged with this part of
the world given its strategic relevance and economic value. Apart from
creating bases here (like in Philippines and Guam) which provides a
military overtone to US involvement with Asia, the US has also been an
architect to bilateral agreements as well. Washington’s signing of the
civil nuclear deal with New Delhi is an evidence of such efforts in
recent times. Despite the Pakistan factor, in contrast to policy
direction of the Cold War years, the Bush administration has been
successful in looking beyond their immediate short-term interest with
respect to their long-term South Asia policy. This is an anomaly the
administration is learning to create with new challenges unraveling on
the international panorama post 911.
The
world is indeed changing and the present status quo is also likely to
continue with the United States acting as the dominant power with
other powers on the rise. However, given the current dynamics that are
at play on the international system, it also seems inevitable that the
other major powers could reach a level from where they could challenge
the United States. But if one buys historian Paul Kennedy’s argument
that great powers rise to a point after which they start to decline
because of their imperial tendency, then more than other power’s rise,
it is USA’s decline which will ultimately shape the future global
system.
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