Security and Stability in Post Elections Afghanistan

The parliamentary elections held in September 2005 were an important milestone in turbulent history of Afghanistan. It is expected that an elected parliament would move Afghanistan towards a peaceful, stable and democratic nation. The lead up to elections was marked by increased violence and security situation continues to worsen even after announcement of the certified results of elections. In fact current year has seen a major upsurge in violence with toll of violence related deaths having risen to 1500 out of which over fifty percent were insurgents. The toll of US military personnel dead and injured has also been the highest this year as compared to the previous years. A total of 96 US military personnel have died and 234 injured bringing the running total to 256 dead and 652 injured . Before the current year closes, all indications are that US military fatalities may cross the levels of last two years combined.

The shape of emerging parliament reveals that it is likely to be dominated by Islamists, Taliban leaders and warlords. While 40 percent of representatives elected from Kabul have affiliations to former fighters and Mujahideen, their percentage rises to 60 percent in other provinces . All indications point towards a difficult situation for President Hamid Karzai. Even though Pushtoons have secured 100 parliamentary seats out of a total of 249 in the lower house which is generally in consonance with total percentage of population belonging to this ethnic group yet this may not prevent the other groups from putting obstacles in the path of Afghan government's agenda. In Afghanistan's bicameral parliament, the upper house has 108 members, out of which 68 are chosen by provincial councils and 34 are nominated by the President. The selection of these nominated members with questionable backgrounds by the President Karzai has also aroused some controversy. This may also create complications and have adverse impact on the stability and security in Afghanistan. It will need strong political skills and acumen on part of Hamid Karzai to get his agenda and parliamentary bills approved through such a parliament.

The problems of governance, security, unemployment, opium cultivation and drug trafficking, lack of law and order and reconstruction remain even after four years of commencement of Bonn process started in October 2001 after the overthrow of Taliban government in Afghanistan. An elected parliament is expected to provide legitimacy and strength to the government to address these issues in a substantive way. Besides the dynamics of internal situation in Afghanistan the strategic interests of many regional and extra regional players also have a bearing on moving Afghanistan towards a more stable and secure future.

The presence of US and NATO military contributes greatly to security and stability in Afghanistan and there was hardly any nation which had not welcomed the overthrow of Taliban regime that had become a haven for terrorists. However, in spite of heightened violence this year Pentagon has been planning to reduce the strength of its troops in Afghanistan up to 20 percent of its current troops' strength. It is keen to give increased role to International Security and Assistance Force (ISAF) comprising of NATO countries. NATO on its part is not desirous of taking over of counter insurgency role but is more comfortable with peace stability operations like sending out Provincial Reconstruction Teams . NATO has planned to move one thousand soldiers out of total strength of 8,500 to the Southern and Eastern part of Afghanistan, the hot bed of insurgency, for construction of security related infrastructure like police stations and court houses. This is expected to generate employment, eliminate poverty and create conditions for bringing peace and stability in Southern and Eastern region It is a different matter that even the pace of reconstruction has been slow and the promised funds for reconstruction have not been forthcoming at the desired pace.

Further, a few days after the September elections, President Karzai had objected to the US military methods of operations especially in relation to entering Afghan civilian homes for intrusive searches and had also indicated that there was no need for air operations. It also needs to be remembered that a few air strikes had resulted in inadvertent civilian casualties. He stressed that US led anti-terror coalition should now concentrate on areas where the terrorists are trained, on their bases, and on the money coming to them . In July, around one thousand Afghan villagers had staged anti-US demonstrations outside gates of Bagram air base to protest against wrongful arrests of many Afghan civilians. There have also been reports of US troops resorting to unauthorized and humiliating methods for interrogation of suspects thus arousing local ire. There is thus need to change anti-terror tactics as also to win hearts and minds of common people. Gaining cooperation and participation of local population is an essential element in fighting insurgency. Achieving the goal of strong and stable Afghanistan in an early time frame would enable the US to reduce its military presence significantly with less concomitant costs.

But then a strong and stable Afghanistan may not be favored by its immediate neighbor Pakistan. It has not as yet abandoned its visions of gaining illusory strategic depth vis-a-vis India. It was for only six years of Taliban reign from 1996 to 2001 in Afghanistan that Pakistan had some semblance of so called 'strategic depth'. Historically, a strong and stable Afghanistan has always been a rival of Pakistan and except for Taliban government no other dispensation in Afghanistan has either been under Pakistan's tutelage or favorably disposed to it. A strong government in Kabul has always been a motivator for Pakhtun and Balochi nationalism in Pakistan and has raised questions on controversial Durand line, the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Pakistan had also entertained vision of extending the strategic depth to include Islamic nations of Central Asia through Taliban held Afghanistan. In the bargain it ended up by exporting fundamentalism, terrorism and instability to Central Asian countries. Therefore, Central Asian countries are as wary as US or India and the rest of international community of a Taliban come back in Afghanistan. However, for its own reasons Pakistan continues to support Taliban and makes a distinction between Taliban and Al Qaeda terrorists. Thus domination of Taliban and Islamic groups in Afghan parliament would enable Pakistan to continue with its policies of contributing to instability in Afghanistan and it is quite likely that it would persist with its agenda till so called 'moderate Taliban' is installed in power.

Pakistan is waiting to claim its self assigned strategic space once the American withdrawal takes place from Afghanistan which according to Pakistan's thought process may take place eventually. Meanwhile, instability in Afghanistan not only justifies US military presence in Afghanistan but it also enables the US to maintain its military bases in Pakistan and Central Asia which help it to address its other global security concerns. The presence in Pakistan enables to keep a watch over nuclear Pakistan. Its military presence all around Iran puts serious pressure on that country to mend its ways and offers the US increased options to deal with Iran. US air bases in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan keep the US flag flying in Central Asia where Russia and China are working to gain increased strategic influence. Though, the US had been asked to vacate its base in Uzbekistan, it has been allowed to keep it for time being.

The recent earth quake in Pakistan, undoubtedly a tragedy of gargantuan proportions is likely to have an indirect impact on evolving situation in Afghanistan. Al Qaeda's second in command Ayman Al Zawahri has appealed for funds urging Muslims to help quake victims even though 'enemy Musharraf's government was agent of the US'. It is quite evident that terrorists groups like Al Qaeda and Taliban have sensed that this event is a great opportunity to not only improve their hold over local populace but as also to garner more funds from Islamic charities and countries like Saudi Arabia. While Islamic charities from the US are quite cautious in providing relief aid lest it is channeled into wrong hands, the same cannot be said of Wahabi charities from the Middle East. Jihadi groups are increasingly occupying the space which should have been the preserve of Pakistan government and military. The strengthening of jihadi machinery would impact adversely on the security situation in Afghanistan as well as in Kashmir Valley.


It is also in this context that jihadi groups have been objecting to presence of the US and NATO troops which have been inducted for earthquake relief operations in Pakistan held Kashmir and NWFP. Indirectly, dispatch of American troops, equipment and helicopters from Afghanistan affects the counter Al Qaeda and counter Taliban operations in Afghanistan. The violence in Afghanistan, especially in its Southern areas has increased rather than abated since Pakistan's earthquake of October 8.


India and American interests in Afghanistan largely converge because both support a peaceful, stable, democratic and prosperous Afghanistan which should never be allowed to become a haven for terrorists. The visit of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to Afghanistan in August 2005 was the first one by an Indian Prime Minister after a hiatus of 30 years. India, itself the largest democracy, has been supporting the movement of Afghanistan towards the goal of sovereign and democratic state. India has extended aid of 550 million dollars out of which 300 million dollars have already been utilized for a number of projects which would help recovery of Afghanistan. Some of the areas of assistance are cooperation in small development projects, cooperation in health, education and community development and cooperation in agricultural research. 50 million dollars has been earmarked for rural development programs in 100 villages based on the Indian experience. 80 million dollars have been earmarked for rebuilding hydro electric plant in Heart and another 100 million dollars would be spent towards constructing power lines to Kabul. However, the most symbolic contribution towards fledgling Afghan democracy has been the construction of Afghan parliamentary building in Kabul at the cost of 25 million dollars .


America has been spending on the average one billion dollars per month in Afghanistan for military operations . Till fiscal year 2005, it has spent 67 billion dollars for defense related expenditure in Afghanistan whereas for reconstruction programs from years 2001 to 2005, it has spent 2.8 billion dollars and for training security forces it has spent one billion dollars. For fiscal year 2006, the US has budgeted for 920 million dollars for reconstruction, law enforcement and counter narcotics. Going by South Asian standards, these are colossal amount of funds. Some of the activities being undertaken by civilian officials, western contractors and NGOs can be economically outsourced to countries like India to get best value for money.

Some of the policies regarding training and development of Afghan National Army (ANA), Afghan National Guard (ANG) and Afghan National Police (ANP) also need a re-look. The US goal is to train 70,000 ANA soldiers by 2007 out of which over 31,000 have been trained and the mid term objective is to reach a figure of 62,000 trained ANA cadres by mid 2006 . It is expected that increased strength of trained cadres of ANA, ANP and ANG would provide heightened security and enable Afghan government to enforce rule of law. However, number of violent incidents in recent months indicates that Afghan security forces have been on the receiving end. Further, ANA training has suffered because their officers, non commissioned officers and other personnel are being trained by different countries which have its own effects on cohesion and uniformity of training and building up a common ethos of an organized uniformed force. The reputation ANA has also been affected by a number of desertions and there are also reports of security forces having been infiltrated by Taliban and pro Al Qaeda elements.

Indian offers of training Afghan army and security personnel in a major way has not been accepted by the US because of their sensitivities towards Pakistan's views on such issues. The US military personnel have themselves received training in Indian institutions like Counter Insurgency and Jungle Warfare School in Mizoram (as recently as in September 2005). The cost of training would not only be much less but it would also be backed by vast experience of Indian military in counter insurgency in diverse type of terrains.

The US needs to be more concerned by Pakistan's attitude to Taliban and terrorism even though Pakistan has approximately 70,000 troops deployed in Waziristan ostensibly to check incursions of jihadi elements into Afghanistan. 9/11 Public Discourse Project Report of November 2005 while reviewing the progress made on recommendations of 9/11 Commission Report has emphasized that Pakistan continues to be 'a sanctuary and training ground for terrorists' and it advises the US government to put pressure on Pakistan to do more to crush terrorism. Besides terrorism in Kashmir, the Report stresses that Pakistan should act forcefully to close Taliban-linked madrassas, shut down terror camps and prevent Taliban from operating across Pak-Afghan border . Earlier in June 2005, Stephen Cohen in a testimony before the US Senate had observed that 'the main problem is Pakistan itself and its political system. The most powerful political party is Pak military and he further opines that it is the long term danger of extremism in Pakistan itself that is a problem not only for the US but for India, Afghanistan and even China . The key to stability and security in Afghanistan to a large extent lies in Pakistan.

India, on its part, has been endeavoring to encourage trade, commerce and integration of Afghan economy within the region and has brought in Afghanistan as a member of SAARC in November 2005. Afghanistan's membership of SAARC would be advantageous for economic reconstruction and it would also be a great opportunity for member countries to benefit from possible opening of a corridor between South and Central Asian countries. However, in this age of globalization Pakistan continues to follow obscurantist policies and denies transit facilities to India for trade, commerce and even aid for reconstruction and development of Afghanistan linking grant of such rights with solution of Kashmir problem. This not only deprives Pakistan of transit fees but it also deprives Afghanistan of much needed revenue and trading opportunities through access to vast markets of South Asia and Central Asia and beyond . For Afghanistan to exploit its unique position as a land bridge between Central and South Asia it needs cooperation of both Pakistan and India as also of other neighboring countries. One of the major thrusts of American foreign policy has been to encourage India and Pakistan towards rapprochement on their outstanding issues.


The current security situation in Afghanistan needs to be looked at afresh because there is a long term danger of Afghanistan becoming the next Iraq if corrective measures are not taken in time. Former US President Bill Clinton has observed that keeping Afghanistan out of the hands of the Taliban and undermining Al Qaeda should be priorities because 'that is by far the biggest threat to our country'. It is also time to start a new Bonn process to address comprehensively all dimensions of problems of Afghanistan in moving it towards a strong, stable and a vibrant democratic nation.