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A review of events of the year 2005 in Central Asia and particularly
in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan indicate the direction towards which the
strategic winds are blowing. In November 2005, Russia and Uzbekistan
signed a security pact called 'Treaty of Allied Relations'. This pact
is tantamount to a military pact since it calls for 'military help to
be rendered in case of aggression against one of the parties by a
third state, it will be viewed as aggression against both the
parties'. It also includes the provision of use of each other's
military bases and installations. This reflects the growing
disenchantment of Uzbekistan with the policies followed by the US.
Uzbekistan was the first Central Asian nation to opt for pro western
orientation and had joined NATO sponsored 'Partnership for Peace
Program' (PFP) in mid-1994. In 1999, it had withdrawn from Russian
sponsored Central Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) in order to
distance itself from the bear hug of Russians. Post September 11, it
offered bases to the US for operations against the Taliban. It was the
only Central Asian country that endorsed the US led coalition military
operations in Iraq though it did not send any troops.
However, the turning point in relations was reached when American
criticized very forcefully the conduct of Uzbek government during
Andijon violence in May 2005, in which many demonstrators were fired
upon by the Uzbek security forces. The protestors were demonstrating
against the trials of 23 persons whom the government considered as
terrorists. One of the major goals of the US policy in Central Asia
and even at the global level is to foster growth of democratic
institutions and policies which uphold human rights. This goal of
ushering in western brand democracy is increasingly being seen by
Central Asian countries as an American tool to advance their strategic
interests and as a threat to their present political order. After
success of 'orange' revolution in Ukraine, 'rose' revolution in
Georgia and 'tulip' revolution in Kyrgyzstan in March 2005, the
Central Asian nations are understandably wary of the western attempts
to introduce their style of democracy which according to them may
create more political instability and may even bring back Islamic
radicals in the picture.
In Central Asian Region (CAR), Uzbekistan occupies a unique position
because of geo-strategic and geo-political factors. It is the only
country which has borders with the other four states of CAR. It has
the largest population of 25 million and is a hub of trade and transit
corridors of CAR. It also has sizeable diaspora in the neighboring
countries which can be used as leverage. The next most important
nation in Central Asia is Kazakhstan with the largest land area of 1.1
million square miles. It is rich in natural resources and has the
largest GDP of 41 billion dollars which is over 50 percent of the
entire CAR. Kazakhstan produces 1.3 million barrels of oil a day and
is expected to become top oil producer in ten years time. The other
three CAR nations Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan complement
the geo-strategic importance of Central Asia.
The trajectory of US influence was at its peak in October 2001 when
Uzbekistan allowed the US to set an air base for Operation Enduring
Freedom (OEF) against the Taliban forces in Afghanistan. Kyrgyzstan
followed suit in December 2001. Meanwhile Kazakhstan and Tajikistan
offered logistic support and over flight facilities to US forces in
OEF. This had the tacit approval of Russia and China who considered
that America's action against the Taliban would promote their
counter-terrorism goals in Chechnya and Xingjian. Uzbekistan was also
instrumental in setting up a Central Asian Cooperation Organization (CACO)
at the behest of US which excluded Russia. CACO aimed at not only
developing economic relations but as also political cooperation among
the member-states. The US provided increased economic and military
assistance through various programs to CACO members. America also
continued to encourage Uzbekistan to modernize all its institutions
including its armed forces on the western lines. Kazakhstan has even
deployed 27 military engineers for de-mining and water purification
duties in Iraq in support of coalition forces.
However, Kazakh government is also concerned that US influence in that
country may lead to political changes. But in presidential elections
of December 2005, President Nursultan Nazarbayev was re-elected with
91 percent of the vote without a whimper of protest from the US or pro
western groups even though there were many flaws in the elections
process. Perhaps, the US has realized that sermonizing or big stick
does not work.
Meanwhile Russia and China are increasingly exerting strategic
pressure in CAR to expand their influence. While Russia has set up
Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) which includes Armenia,
Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Russia, to enhance its
security agenda (that is to fight color revolutions), China had come
up with a 'Shanghai Treaty' in 1996 that includes Russia, Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. China pledged the sanctity and substantial
demilitarization of 4300 miles long borders with the concerned
countries. The objective was to deter ethnic Uighurs from seeking
support for separatist activities from CAR and thwart their
secessionist tendencies. In 2001, Uzbekistan joined the group and it
was renamed Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). In July 2005, SCO
called for the US forces to vacate their bases in Uzbekistan,
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. General Richard Meyers, the US Chairman,
Joint Chiefs of Staff observed that "it looks to me that two large
countries (i.e. Russia and China) were trying to bully smaller
countries." Uzbekistan demanded that use of Karshi-Khanabad end in six
months while Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan assured the visiting US Defense
Secretary Donald Rumsfeld that they would continue to support OEF.
In August 2005, Russia and China conducted joint military exercises
code named Peace Mission 2005. Ostensibly, though the nature of
military exercises was meant to showcase China's military capabilities
for a possible unification of Taiwan yet it had strategic implications
for security calculus in CAR. The exercise was witnessed by the
defense ministers of several Central Asian nations who are members of
SCO. Earlier anti-terrorist joint military exercises had been
conducted in Kazakhstan in the fall of 2003.
While US rebuked Uzbekistan and raised questions of human rights in
the light of Andijon incident, China welcomed President Islam Karimov
during his visit to China in May 2005 and lauded his firm handling of
the riot. China which had initially approved of the US bases in CAR
now feels that US presence would have negative impact on strategic
interests of China. The Central Asian states also welcome the Chinese
policy of non-interference in the political and internal issues of
CAR. They also expect to reap benefits from China's growing prosperity
and economy whereas the economic aid which these countries had
expected from the US and the west has not been very substantial and it
comes with many strings attached. In July, Nazarbayev and Chinese
President Hu Jin Tao affirmed their strategic partnership, signed
several trade deals and agreed to build railroad from Kazakhstan's oil
rich area of Caspian Sea to western China. A Kazakhstan-China oil
pipeline is due to be completed by end December and Kazakh- Chinese
trade is set to cross 4.5 billion dollars.
Chinese farmers are taking long term leases on farmland and China also
controls the headwaters of the two main rivers that supply water to
Kazakhstan. China has also embarked on anti-terrorist border training
programs with its Central Asian neighbors to enhance its security. It
is evident that such Chinese activities would enable China to improve
its strategic leverages in CAR.
Russia has also been at pains to regain its strategic space in an area
which it considers to be its backyard or 'near abroad'. Russia and
China have been coordinating their efforts to improve their influence.
There have also been indications that Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, the
regional rivals are being encouraged by Russia to come together to
promote better relations and understanding. Kazakh President has even
observed in November 2005 that it is time to pursue a more pragmatic
Central Asian Union. Russia, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan have entered
into a number of interlocking agreements in the field of gas supplies
and oil pipelines designed to restore the old Soviet era gas supply
system in Central Asia. These have political and economic implications
for the rest of CAR countries. Russia also maintains a military
presence in Tajikistan and had signed a 15 year military basing accord
in 2003 for Kant airfield near Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan.
There is not much evidence to indicate that Kyrgyzstan after its tulip
revolution has decidedly turned in favor of America or the west. It
remains sensitive to the Chinese and Russian interests. China had even
attempted to obtain a military base in the country and continues to
pursue its security vigorously.
In all these strategic games being played in Central Asia, India
appears to be somewhat of a lone ranger with modest strategic
ambitions and not enough presence economically or otherwise. India
considers CAR as part of its strategic neighborhood and has been
endeavoring to develop economic and trade relations which, to a large
extent are being hampered by lack of a direct land route to CAR. The
region is also a theatre in the battle between fundamentalism and
tolerance, extremism and moderation in Islam where the objective of
radical elements is to destabilize the present secular governments.
India shares the goals of anti-terrorism, security and stability in
Central Asia along with the objective of curtailment of drug
trafficking in the region.
India along with Pakistan, Iran and Mongolia are observers in the SCO
but do not exercise any visible influence in the grouping. China is
fast becoming the most active member and is using SCO as an instrument
to bolster its political, economic and even security agenda. Awarding
of Petro-Kazakhstan (with probable reserves of 550 million barrels of
oil) contract to China's National Petroleum Corporation at the cost of
India even when India had bid the highest is indicative of the
significant political clout of China in CAR. China is also creating
inter-dependencies with the other members of the grouping so as to
constrain any independent action by them especially if such activity
does not suit China's interests.
India and Pakistan have both common interests in having access to the
energy reservoirs of Central Asia and also stand to benefit by the
vast potential of trade between Central Asia and South Asia. However,
Pakistan has unrequited ambitions to be seen as a leader of the
Islamic 'ummah' and had been working to acquire extended strategic
depth beyond Afghanistan to Central Asia during the heyday of the
Taliban regime. In the bargain it ended up by exporting terrorism and
instability not only to CAR but as also to Chechnya. It has also been
reported that radical elements of Central Asian origin are still
holing up near Pak-Afghan border waiting for opportunity to stage a
comeback.
During a high level meeting of SCO in Moscow in October 2005, India
stressed that it supports the objectives of SCO which seek to ensure
stability in the SCO region, combat terrorism and extremist viewpoints
and was keen on playing a constructive and active role in the SCO.
India wanted energy cooperation among the members to be included as a
priority sector because SCO has important consumers and producers of
the world. India has also been in favor of construction of gas
pipelines from Iran to Pakistan and India and from Turkmenistan
through Afghanistan and Pakistan to India. There is also a need to
develop North-South Transport Corridor, which provides a shorter and
more efficient trade route to Russia and landlocked Central Asia.
However, all this can only fructify if there is political will and
cooperation among the members who have divergent interests and
especially if member countries like India are willing to put money on
the table in order to pursue its interests in a meaningful manner.
In the emerging equation in CAR, India has been exploring the
strategic space between the one side represented by the US, European
Union and NATO and the other side represented by Russia and China.
Russia on the one hand is attracted towards having a Euro-centric
orientation and on the other hand it wants to preserve its influence
in erstwhile Soviet Republics where western influence has made deep
inroads. A segment of Russian intelligentsia is also of the view that
rivalry between the US and Russia in Central Asia may create
conditions for China to emerge as a clear winner in the great game.
India also has congruence of interests with the US in many ways in
Central Asia and as also globally. On the other hand, Russia, China
and India have been having triangular meetings at Foreign Ministers'
level to enhance strategic cooperation. The third such meeting of the
triangular group is due in March 2006. This grouping can also be
viewed as Russian and Chinese attempt to wean India away from American
influence and India's attempt to steer towards its cherished goal of
strategic autonomy. Year 2006 promises to consolidate the trend of
declining influence of the US not only in Central Asia but Asia as a
whole.
Therefore, in the evolving situation any number of future strategic
scenarios can be visualized. There may be calls on India to join one
or the other bandwagon in arena where end game is yet to be played
out. Indisputably, India needs to develop both its soft and hard power
capabilities to advance its interests in its extended neighborhood in
the possible future scenarios. The complexities of emerging strategic
equation demand a pro active and appropriate joint and integrated
response from our political, diplomatic, economic and military
leadership since India wants to be counted as an important player in
CAR.
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